DE-Sen: Get ready for the Castle-Biden showdown

by desmoinesdem, Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 10:26:40 AM EDT

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has recruited the only person able to make the U.S. Senate race in Delaware competitive next year. Congressman Mike Castle, a former governor who has never lost an election, will seek to serve out the remaining four years in the term to which Joe Biden was re-elected in 2008.

Meanwhile, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden has safely returned from Iraq and is expected to announce his candidacy for the Senate seat. Castle has led Biden in three polls, but the most recent one (by Republican pollster Rasmussen) had Castle ahead by just five points, 47-42.

Swing State Project is now calling this race a tossup. There's a great discussion going on in that thread.

According to Taegan Goddard's Political Wire, the Cook Political Report also rates this race a tossup, while the Rothenberg Political Report is calling it "Lean Takeover."

Biden will have to fight for this one, although he won't be as big an underdog as his father was the first time he ran for U.S. Senate in 1972.

It's too bad that Democrats will have to invest resources in holding this seat (now represented by placeholder appointee Ted Kaufman). On the plus side, we are very likely to win the at-large House seat Castle will be vacating.

Update [2009-10-6 17:43:45 by desmoinesdem]: Public Policy Polling's first take since Castle's announcement:

When we polled the state in March Castle was leading Biden 44-36. But not surprisingly his name recognition was also ten points higher. Among respondents who had an opinion of Biden, whether it was positive or negative, the Democrat led 43-41. And the undecideds in such a scenario were 64% Democratic to 12% Republican, as well as 35% African American.
So Castle's early poll leads are largely a function of name recognition, and given his nearly 30 years in statewide office really aren't that substantial.

Tags: 2010 elections, Beau Biden, Congress, DE-Sen, Delaware, Mike Castle, Senate (all tags)

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Get ready for the Castle-Biden

You can bet that Castle will be collecting money every second he can. As an active officer Biden cannot solicit or even accept contributions so if you want to give team blue an early hand go to http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraiser s/22471 . For disclosure purposes i do not work for or represent any party involved in Delaware politics.

by goodleh 2009-10-06 10:31AM | 0 recs

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Re: we have been down this road before

Will be very similar to the NJ gubernatorial contest and the IL senate contest, mainstream moderates opposing mainstream dems and the independents will be the determining outcome of the race. I do believe all three will be elected.

by olawakandi 2009-10-06 11:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: DE-Sen

This is definitely now a race that will need attention and resources, which is a drag in a state like Delaware. However, Political Wire has just posted a link to Public Policy Polling's analysis of their Delaware polling, which argues that Castle's early lead is a function of name recognition (1o pts higher than Biden's), and that if you look at the subsample of people who actually know who both candidates are, Biden already leads.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/1 0/06/is_castle_running_only_on_name_reco gnition.html

by thesleepthief 2009-10-06 01:05PM | 0 recs

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barf

Although I obviously want Biden to win, it makes me sick everytime a seat is bequeathed through the family like some cheap heirloom.

by highgrade 2009-10-06 07:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: DE-Sen: Castle-Biden showdown

Sorry, it's not fair to talk about a seat being "bequeathed through the family like some cheap heirloom" if the candidate wins a competitive election - especially if that candidate already holds statewide office on his own merits. In that case, the voters have spoken. Now if Beau Biden had been appointed, you'd have a good point.

However, I'm not convinced Biden is going to run. He could re-run for Attorney General, then run for the likely open seat in 4 years, since Castle most likely would not run for re-election. That may be the better strategy for him. In which case maybe the guy who lost the Democratic primary for governor last year may decide to run - probably should have been appointed in the first place.

Should be an interesting election. Frankly, if I lived there, no matter how much I may like Castle I don't think I'd want a 71 year old freshman Senator.

by LanceS 2009-10-07 12:40PM | 0 recs