Obama Still Has His Job, Do You?
by Charles Lemos, Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 07:59:16 PM EDT
If I were to predict a GOP bumper sticker for the 2012 election cycle, it might be "Obama Still Has His Job, Do You?" If the President and by extension the Democrats have an electoral Achilles Heel, it is the continuing erosion of the nation's labor market. By 2012, the nation's electorate will no longer remember that the bleed of jobs began in 2007 under George W. Bush nor are they likely to pin the blame on Reagan-era policies that set in motion a three decade destruction of the country's manufacturing sector. For too many Americans, this is not a recession but a quiet depression, an epic crash of living standards. Even for those still with jobs, wage deflation is a harsh reality and falling wages are a symptom of a sick economy. This sick economy may be a GOP legacy but if we fail to stem the ebb tide of jobs then a political day of reckoning will await us.
An editorial in the New York Times published on Saturday sets forth the urgency of the matter:
September was the 21st straight month of job loss -- the longest unbroken stretch of losses since record-keeping began in 1939 -- bringing to 7.2 million the number of positions that have been axed since December 2007. And that understates the damage. During the recession, the economy has failed to create another 2.7 million jobs that were needed simply to employ new workers -- like high school and college graduates, immigrants and stay-at-home parents who want to go back to work.The unemployment rate for September -- 9.8 percent -- also understates the damage. It would have been higher but for the fact that 571,000 people dropped out of the work force last month -- in general, it's assumed, because they've despaired of finding work. If they had kept looking, they would have been counted as unemployed.
The combination of a rising unemployment rate and a quickening pace of labor-force dropouts is especially worrisome. In September, the employment rate for all workers -- defined as the share of the population with a job -- fell to 58.8 percent, its lowest level in more than 25 years. For adult men, who have been particularly hard hit by job loss in this recession, the employment rate fell to 67 percent, its lowest level since the government began keeping track in 1948. Before this recession, that rate had never dropped below 70.5 percent.
A shrinking labor force represents a tremendous waste of talent and potential, a loss of value that will not be entirely retrievable. Widespread joblessness among men is particularly devastating for the economy and many families, because men tend to earn more than women and to have jobs offering health insurance.
To make matters worse, unemployment among men and women is proving relentless. Of the 15.1 million people who are now officially counted as unemployed, over a third have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer, the highest percentage of long-term unemployment on record. By the end of the year, benefits will expire for more than one million unemployed workers.
Those are bleak numbers and the Administration seems to revel in celebrating a "catastrophe averted" when the pain remains all too evident. As the Times editorial board concludes, "Congress and the Administration also have not done enough to directly create jobs." Creating jobs is not just an economic necessity but a political imperative.
Tags: Fiscal Stimulus, Jobs Report, Labor Market, US Economy (all tags)
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