Four New Polls Put Corzine within Margin of Error

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 08:23:22 AM EDT

This race is clearly tightening:

	Corzine (D)	Christie (R)	Daggett (I)
Research 2000	42	46	7
Monmouth	40	43	8
Quinnipiac	39	43	12
Democracy Corps	39	40	11


Average	40.0	43.0	9.5

I have said this before, but this race really has the potential to shape up like one of the two gubernatorial races in the 2006 cycle in which the incumbent managed to win with under 40 percent of the vote (though I do think that Corzine will come in north of that mark considering the fact that early polling in the Garden State has notoriously underestimated Democratic turnout -- think the 2002 Senate campaign, 2004 presidential campaign, the 2005 gubernatorial campaign and the 2006 Senate campaign). With Democrat Jon Corzine inching up, Independent Chris Daggett pulling in significant support (and good press following last night's debate), and Republican Chris Christie sinking (he has dropped more than 5 points in recent months, per Pollster.com), this race increasingly looks winnable for the Democrats.

Tags: Governor 2009, new jersey, NJ-Gov (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

Sort by

permalink

Re: Four New Polls Put Corzine within Margin of Er

Maybe there can be a split ...

Deeds is running an uninspiring campaign in VA

by lori 2009-10-02 09:54AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Four New Polls Put Corzine within Margin of Er

It's cause you moderates are just so uninspiring! Zzzzzzz...

by Steve M 2009-10-02 01:25PM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Corzine will win

Corzine will probably hold onto the voters he got in 2005 and it is Christie who needs the support of the independents and will be stuck around 45%. I predict Corzine to win but under 50%.

by olawakandi 2009-10-02 09:59AM | 0 recs

permalink

if Corzine pulls this rabbit out of his hat

in the middle of the most severe recession in 25 years, it will be absolutely devastating for Republican morale.

Virginia is probably beyond our reach this year, but the GOP brand still stinks outside the south.

by desmoinesdem 2009-10-02 10:31AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Four New Polls Put Corzine within Margin of Er

Hasn't polling in the past underestimated the potential for Democrats in NJ? I know in the last decade there always seems to be these polls that say that the GOP is close to the Democratic presidential candidate, but that never happens on election day.

by bruh3 2009-10-02 10:40AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Four New Polls

I've been reading arguments the last several days about whether Daggett is sucking votes away from Corzine or Christie. A case can be made either way, but my judgment is that he's probably taking more of Corzine's votes.

So an open question is how many of those voters will revert back to Corzine on Election Day, realizing that it's more important to block a Republican even if they're disappointed in Corzine. I think this effect will be felt at least a little bit.

by Steve M 2009-10-02 01:27PM | 0 recs

permalink

Great News

I've been more optimistic on NJ than VA.

I just adore Jon Corzine. Like anyone he has his faults but his heart is the right place.

by Charles Lemos 2009-10-02 03:19PM | 0 recs

permalink

Christie will ruin the budget....even more

As a new resident in NJ I cannot say I am thrilled with how this state is run. Very wateful. NJ DOT trucks run up and down 295 patrolling for broken down vechiles...its not 1980, we have cell phones, it is a complete waste! Not to mention the property tax rebate, my household JUST falls outside the new 75K limit for it. So I essentially lost $900 thanks to Corzine. But, I have to admire that he is taking mostly progressive steps for the budget. I personally think even the rich here pay a fair share, but soaking the poor would be even worse. That's why I will have to vote for Corzine. Daggett seems OK (I'd love to work for the EPA, so I admire him), but I cannot let a corrupt R like Christie win, and likely lower taxes on the rich and businesses...and thus soak the middle class even more! So, chalk that up for 1 more Corzine vote, he has done a decent job compared to DE, PA, and NY in this crisis.

by Airb330 2009-10-03 07:46AM | 0 recs