No One Could Have Predicted

Can we stop trying to appease bad-faith Republicans now...please?

Boehner to GOP: Vote against stimulus

By: Patrick O'Connor and Jonathan Martin
January 27, 2009 10:59 AM EST

President Barack Obama is coming to the Capitol this afternoon to curry favor with congressional Republicans. But it appears GOP leaders have already made up their minds to oppose his $825 billion stimulus plan.

House Republican Leader John A. Boehner and his No. 2, Whip Eric Cantor, told their rank-and-file members Tuesday morning during a closed-door meeting to oppose the bill when it comes to the floor Wednesday, according to an aide familiar with the discussion. Boehner told members that he's voting against the stimulus, and Cantor told the assembled Republicans that there wasn't any reason for them to support the measure, according to another person in the room. Cantor and his whip team are going to urge GOP members to oppose it.

Boy, good thing we made sure to strip out the contraceptive funding that got Republicans so worked up yesterday!

Update [2009-1-27 11:40:25 by Josh Orton]: Josh Marshall is exactly right.

Tags: 2009 Stimulus, Barack Obama, John Boehner (all tags)

Comments

38 Comments

this is exactly what I feared

from Obama. He will move too far toward Republicans in a hopeless effort to have a "bipartisan bill."

Mass transit and contraception programs have been cut from the stimulus--what else will Obama sell us out on before he realizes the Republicans are not in good faith?

by desmoinesdem 2009-01-27 07:00AM | 0 recs
exactly right

The big story here is that Obama stripped out the mass transit funding in order to placate the GOP with tax cuts. And the GOP still won't jump aboard!

The Dems really need to trim out the business tax cuts and restore mass transit/infrastructure funding. Otherwise we are stuck with a very expensive stimulus bill that won't create as many jobs as it should. And in two years, the Dems won't have any awesome SUPERTRAIN projects to point to as a sign of progress.

If Obama keeps up with this small ball, defensive playmaking, he'll end up as another Gray Davis. When you have the power, you use it.

by existenz 2009-01-27 07:44AM | 0 recs
Re: this is exactly what I feared

It is amazing to me how quickly the media went from "Obama is great" during the transition, to so confrontational after the oath. Republicans are determined to keep the same business as usual. Although it may be very "Bush-like", with such high approval ratings and political capital, I am thinking Obama should just have a speech to the American people and say

"Republicans are blocking this stimulus bill, but I won, and you voted for the Democrats to control congress, so we will do your work and if Republicans don't want to come along with us, we'll move on without them"

by Hilina 2009-01-27 08:15AM | 0 recs
I see two scenarios

One, Obama has such a hard-on for bipartisanship that he is blind to the fact that they will not vote with him. He will continue to cave while the GOP pushes more and more. He'll keep caving until Pelosi/Reid stop him.

Two, he is well aware that the GOP will not vote with him, but is maintaining the moral high ground of "I tried to work with them". This squeezes the GOP's obstructionism in the vice of public opinion. Contraception is not just a Senate GOP issue, a lot of people I work with would be pissed off about it's inclusion. so he's actually playing to the crowd.

The fashionable position is that scenario one is true. I favor scenario two. Why? It's Obama's M.O. His style is to look like the nice sweet guy while he's screwing you over. It's a subtle form of character assassination, and he has done it to all of his opponents. He will allow the GOP to paint themselves as obstructionist and inept by attacking him while he's "bending over backwards to work with them". Next thing we'll be wondering how the 2009 GOP Senate "imploded", a la McCain.

It is possible that he's finally met his Moby Dick. But I just don't see a whole lot of precedent for it. This isn't a guy who keeps trying to kick the football.

by Neef 2009-01-27 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: I see two scenarios

I think the possibilities for the GOP are pretty limited.  They need the hardcores to vote against the bill, but it only takes one defecting Senator for the bill to pass.  Add another 10 or so and you have a real bipartisan bill.  The GOP needs the 30 or so holdouts as a way of hedging their bets for 2010.  This is similar to the position the Dems were in with the Iraq War vote and numerous others.  They need to show their displeasure without actually owning a dead stimulus package.  I fear Obama gave away a little too much in the form of tax cuts, but who knows what form those will take by the time this comes out of conference committee.  

by the mollusk 2009-01-27 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: I see two scenarios

I believe Obama will come out on top of this one. Like Neef said, Obama's style is something that the Republicans are not used to...he's 30 steps ahead of them at this point...

If public opinion becomes so unfavorable of republicans, that even long-term stalwarts of the party begin to demand that something should be done.

However, at this point, the republicans are attacking other congressman to improve their chances during 2010.  If they are successful with a embolden congressional membership, they'll begin attacking Obama to bring down is favorability ratings.

by Check077 2009-01-27 07:41AM | 0 recs
Re: I see two scenarios

Man, I must be tired.

I believe Obama will come out on top of this negotiation. Like Neef said, Obama's style is something that the Republicans are not used to...he's 30 steps ahead of them at this point...

If public opinion becomes so unfavorable for republicans due to their obstructionist-tactics, we'll see even long-term stalwarts of the party begin to demand that something should be done (even leaving the party altogehter--switching party ID).

However, at this point, the republicans are attacking fellow democratic congressman to improve their chances during 2010.  If they are successful with larger congressional membership, their efforts will be embolden; then, they'll begin attacking Obama to bring down his high favorability ratings.

by Check077 2009-01-27 07:45AM | 0 recs
Re: I see two scenarios

Those are not the only two scenarios.

Nor are the two you mention particularly relevant to what matters with regard to his success (namely the stimulus actually helping the economy), which is what he had better started worrying about.

by bruh3 2009-01-27 07:51AM | 0 recs
I actually agree

that the effectiveness of the stimulus is the real bar. However, the topic of the thread is his political strategy, which is what I addressed.

by Neef 2009-01-27 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: I actually agree

You can't address strategy without knowing what the goal is and discussing strategy in those terms.

by bruh3 2009-01-27 08:24AM | 0 recs
Hey

take it up with Josh. It's his thread.

by Neef 2009-01-27 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Hey

You miss the point of the thread, and thus my comment. His thread is about how Obama is focusing on the wrong strategy since the goals are not being met. In other words, the focus is on the substance even as we discuss the strategies.

Your arguments are focused solely on strategy. Indeed, you limit us to 2 straegies that work perfectly well if one is worried about process rather than substance.  

This mindset- process over substance- is a the chief concern a lot of people have with Obama. He's good at process. "Let's all meet. Let's all talk." It's his community activist background. But, ultimately, it's a question of substance.

What I mean by this is not that Obama does not have substance. What I mean as someone who used to do community activist work is that I realize the limitation of the style if you have also had to go out a negotiate with more hardcore type of negotiators.

With these negotiators (interest based negotiation), it's not about mediation or arbitration of interests. It's about ensuring their interest.

I am explaining how your post demonstrate this issue. Both of your choices are not about the substantive o utcome of what the bill looks like. The diarist, including his link, utlimately are about the substance of the bill.  Thus, there are more than the two choices you describe once one realizes that process is not the end goal.

by bruh3 2009-01-27 08:41AM | 0 recs
That's fine

but I disagree. I think the thread was entirely about process - the strategy of appeasement and whether it is effective.

If you want to talk about goals, we can have a conversation about the stimulative effect of the contraceptive provision. Obama removing that provision should then be judged on how effective the provision is at stimulus.

But nowhere do I see any mention of multipliers. Instead, the fact that he removed it is the central topic.

I'm under no illusions that we'll agree on this, but I'm very comfortable with my comment.

by Neef 2009-01-27 08:53AM | 0 recs
Re: That's fine

Except your comment lacks context and meaning for the purpose of an effective bill on the goals of the bill versus worrying about process for the purpose of process. I am glad you are happy with yourself, but you aren't the point. Nor am I. .

This is just one among many compromises Obama is making that are not helping to create an effective bill. Unless you are willing to argue the bankruptcy provision and the provision that was for increased funding to rail also did not matter? What about the tax breaks he gave to them in concession? What about the amount of the stimulus package in general (which as I mentioned already projected weakness to the GOP)?  

This is the problem with parsing to one particular tact or another in favor of concerns over process rather than overall bill. When one does not parse, it does not look good for us in terms of strategy toward an overall effective bill.

by bruh3 2009-01-27 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: That's fine

I'm fine with theatrics (meeting with R's, talking about outreach, etc.). I get worried when the substance of legislation is sacrificed for process reasons, especially when the process reasons turn out to be pointless anyway. If you carve out a couple measures to gain Republicans votes, that (arguably) might be worth it. But when you make concessions and get nothing in return...

by Josh Orton 2009-01-27 09:28AM | 0 recs
Re: That's fine

I agree with you. That problem is not theatrics alone, but theatrics that harms the substance. if Obama were getting something out of this, fine, but he's really not since they have  no intention of backing him, and I doubt the public pays close attention to these games. So who is the audience?

by bruh3 2009-01-27 10:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Hey

shorter version of my post: in your formulation the end goal is process, but here the end goal is what does the bill look like. So I don't need to take it up with the diarist. It's a question of what your end goal is versus by your choice of what you are willing to allow as strategies.

by bruh3 2009-01-27 08:45AM | 0 recs
Well if they arent going to vote with him anyway

go back to the plan that included contraceptive funding.

by sepulvedaj3 2009-01-27 07:15AM | 0 recs
and

strip out those stupid tax cuts and add another 500 billion in infrastructure spending.

by JJE 2009-01-27 07:17AM | 0 recs
Yes!

The contraceptive funding is just a distraction. The mass transit stuff, the infrastructure programs, those are what really frighten the Republicans.

by existenz 2009-01-27 07:45AM | 0 recs
Re: No One Could Have Predicted

This is like predicting that the sun will come up.

The GOP leadership may their intentions clear with the auto bailout.

They intend to obstruct.

And, I agree with Marshall. There is no incentive for them not to obstruct. Their goal is to get back into power. The fastest way to do that is through a failed Democratic presidential administration.

Again, this also is as predictable as the sun coming up if you let at things in terms of self-interest rather than serving the country's greater interest. Of the two parties, sadly, the GOP is the most self-interested, and knows how to negotiate along those terms. They will not give in here because a crashed economy serves their interest. I imagine they even rationalize it serves the economy because of us dangerous Democrats being in charge.

by bruh3 2009-01-27 07:24AM | 0 recs
That didn't take long

 Now we can all get back to being completely miserable. Welcome back to the Progressive comfort zone!

by QTG 2009-01-27 07:33AM | 0 recs
Re: That didn't take long

You know your post is more a glimpse into you? Why do you think others are suffering because you are?

by bruh3 2009-01-27 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: That didn't take long

Bruh, you forget that EVERYTHING I post is snark. My comment was snaking at the general tone of panic around here - that so many think Obama and the Dems are FAILing because they are so weak, unlike us Progressives who would already have solved all the worlds problems and banished Republicans to the dustbin of history by now.

Oh, if only they would listen to us!!!!

by QTG 2009-01-27 10:16AM | 0 recs
Re: That didn't take long

Okay i am a bit slow when it comes to humor on political blogs. Sorry to mess up your joke.

by bruh3 2009-01-27 10:53AM | 0 recs
I say good

let them show their colors now, so that Barack will stop giving away compromises in the expectation that this will lead to rational decision making from our pug congresspersons.  They had their chance, they blew it, let's leave them in the dust?  

by anna shane 2009-01-27 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: I say good

i agree completely. They had a chance to be constructive and are running away from helping our Country for political gain.

by sepulvedaj3 2009-01-27 07:41AM | 0 recs
Chalk this up as a rookie mistake

He will learn eventually to use less carrots and more stick.

by optimusprime 2009-01-27 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: No One Could Have Predicted

The question is how much clout do the GOP leadership have on this issue.  I'm sure they said the same thing to their rank and file about SCHIP as well, and many republicans voted for it.  The democratic leadership seems pretty convinced that they will get a good number of Republicans voting for the bill and are not worried... the media also feels there will be overwhelming support for the bill overall...  I don't know if Obama is going through backchannels or what, but no one on our side seems worried that it won't be "bipartisan"...  Of course, we only need a handful of votes to make it to a 2/3rds majority...

Obama isn't stupid.  Everyone assumes he's some DLC type of moron... he's setting something up for the Republicans, I don't know what, though...  The man didn't get to be the first black president by playing dumb... So, I don't know... Those in Chicago are waiting for him to go South Side on the GOP... they've seen this before.

Meanwhile, we get on the phones and call up our republican representatives and give them hell.

As for the contraceptive stuff, I'm glad it's stripped out... I don't want to hear years of GOP whining about "condom stimulus"... attach it as an amendment to another bill...  We still need more infrastructure spending, though...  maybe we can get an amendment on that...

The stimulus plan should be that... stimulus.... and we need ot leave our pet projects out of it unless they create jobs...

by LordMike 2009-01-27 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: No One Could Have Predicted

Agreed. The one place everyone found common ground today was apparently that Obama agreed some of the spending sucked. And it did.

Obama didn't take out transportation funding, our fucking Congress did, apparently. I hope Obama gets that back in there. He'd better return this to what matters.

That being said, nobody thought the GOP would climb on board in any significant numbers, certainly not in the House. But it will only wind up demonstrating their complete impotence.

by vcalzone 2009-01-27 09:34AM | 0 recs
A tax cut will do me a lot of good...

...if I lose my job.  I can keep a greater percentage of nothing.

by KTinOhio 2009-01-27 07:58AM | 0 recs
Re: No One Could Have Predicted

Apparently mass transit advocates are not happy with the support they are getting.  If we are not going to get the Republicans anyway, why not take the tax cut and family planning money, and put it in mass transit?

by Bob H 2009-01-27 08:25AM | 0 recs
Re: No One Could Have Predicted
like pelosi's aide told the hill-the liberals are luke warm, the gop opposes, blue dogs are divided. it may pass bc of the the votres but n one seems to really want it. feels like the immigration bil-but this one liely will pass and do little for the economy.
by art3 2009-01-27 08:55AM | 0 recs
Re: No One Could Have Predicted
REP KANJORSKI WILL VOTE NO THE BILL! http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/key- democrat-rips-stimulus-predicts-more-bai louts-2009-01-27.html
by art3 2009-01-27 09:20AM | 0 recs
Re: No One Could Have Predicted

The longer this fight goes on, the worse it gets for us... Obama's favorability ratings are dropping fast on Gallup, and it's 'cos the bill is getting stalled by bickering...

The republicans are managing to get an upper hand on this, which is a problem, and predictable if you are including them in this process... they want to make this bill useless so they can run against it...

We'll see what happens, but it's getting bad when the herd of cats known as our party breaks discipline...

by LordMike 2009-01-27 09:30AM | 0 recs
Obama last chance for strategy

Final option seems to be to just use this obstructionism to say, "We tried to work with you and you wouldn't do it. So we're doing this our way and we won't be asking for your help until you grow the fuck up."

Meanwhile, I wouldn't mind if Obama completely threw Pelosi under the bus anyway. This bill is atrocious, and it's VERY clear that our representatives have no idea what the fuck they're even supposed to be pushing for.

by vcalzone 2009-01-27 09:46AM | 0 recs
Dems Don't Understand Republicans

The problem with Democrats is that they don't understand the Republican thought process. They assume that if they show them good will by giving in on some issues in the stimulus bill, that the Republicans will return the favor by offering compromises themselves.

Republicans don't think like Democrats. First, to the Republicans, the good will gestures are a sign of Democratic weakness. At the very least, they will hold out to get more concessions from Obama until the bill is a Republican bill rather than a Democratic bill.

Second, Republicans are an ideological based party on the issues, but pragmatic when it comes to bargaining. Conversely, Democrats are pragmatic when solving economic and social problems but are ideological when it comes to bargaining. That is, Republicans follow the axiom start high and give in only very slowly, if at all. The object of bargaining is to win. Democrats believe that the goodness in people will cause the opposition to give in when they are shown kindness. To the Democrats, the purpose of bargaining is to make everyone happy. The Republicans are pragmatic when it comes to bargaining because they believe that they must gain power at all costs to implement their ideology.

Third, because Republicans are ideologically based when it becomes to the issues, most Republicans believe that it is immoral to compromise with the Democrats. In other words, "It's my way or the highway." Yes, its obvious that they are against abortion and conservative on social issues because of their fundamentalist religious belief. But their faith in "free capitalism" is also grounded in religion. For example, giving welfare to lazy bums is immoral, and that's why Republicans oppose providing social safety nets for the poor.

I would not be surprised that no matter how much compromising and good will Obama shows to the Republicans, the result will be the same as in 1993, not a single Republican will vote for the stimulus and budget plans. I would not be surprised if Obama will be forced to put the economic stimulus plan as part of the budget plan as a way to get around the Republican fillibuster (You can't fillibuster appropriation bills).

What Obama should do is to shutdown the negotiation process when the Republicans still refuse to give in one inch. He should tell the American people that at least he tried. Then he needs to twist some arms to get the sixty votes needed to ram his original stimulus plan down the throats of the Republicans. He needs to do this quickly, because history suggests that the window of opportunity to make significant legislative change is in the first six months of the first term of a presidency.

by Zzyzzy 2009-01-27 10:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Don't Understand Republicans
What Obama should do is to shutdown the negotiation process when the Republicans still refuse to give in one inch. He should tell the American people that at least he tried. Then he needs to twist some arms to get the sixty votes needed to ram his original stimulus plan down the throats of the Republicans. He needs to do this quickly, because history suggests that the window of opportunity to make significant legislative change is in the first six months of the first term of a presidency.

Seconded and thirded. They're overplaying their hand and Obama should call their bluff.
by vcalzone 2009-01-27 10:04AM | 0 recs

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