Politico has one of their hilarious pieces on how great things are for Republicans. The latest -- GOP Could Win 3 Key Senate Seats -- makes the case that Republicans are in great shape to hold onto the three open seats that have emerged with the early retirements of Kit Bond of MO, Mel Martinez of FL and George Voinovich of OH. Their point is that recruitment in these races is going way better than in '08, which, let's face it, really isn't saying much. The fact is, how great can things really be going for them when in the one state among these three that Barack Obama lost -- Missouri -- the likely Democratic nominee has emerged as a slight early favorite to take the seat.

Public Policy Polling has a new poll out that pits Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan against three potential GOP opponents.

TPM breaks it down:

* Against former Sen. Jim Talent, who narrowly lost re-election in 2006, Carnahan is ahead 47%-43%.

* Against Rep. Roy Blunt, who recently stepped down as House Minority Whip, Carnahan has a statistically insignificant edge of 45%-44%.

* Against former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost in the GOP primary for governor last year, Carnahan has a healthier lead of 47%-36%, but is nevertheless below 50%.

PPP's blog provides more context that points to an even stronger position for Carnahan.

Carnahan is probably further ahead of her opponents than the numbers might indicate. Her lead among African Americans over Blunt and Talent is only 54-30. Early polling tends to underestimate black support for Democratic candidates. For instance when PPP first surveyed the Gubernatorial race in Missouri, back in July, Jay Nixon led Kenny Hulshof only 52-27 among black voters. According to the exit poll, Nixon ended up taking 90% of it to Hulshof's 7. It seems reasonable to think that Carnahan will end up performing similarly with African American voters, which means she's running pretty close to 50%.

Things sure are looking up for the GOP!