I think it can be safe to say that the USAToday/Gallup poll is an outlier.

As so many have said, we may well see a jostling situation in the next few days. Whether it is 1 o 2 or 5 points, who knows? Speculation: There has been a small shift in momentum--whether it is only which party had the later convention, who knows? One thing is apparent in the hallways and byways in which I have been the fast few days: A lot of people are talking about politics in places where it hasn't been so obvious before. On Sunday morning, in the Church basement, coffee and donuts became the setting for political discourse coming from several directions around me. (Catholic church) In the neighborhood restaurant on Saturday night, political talk throughout. (nice little French restaurant) Whatever it is--and, only based on my experience--something is happening.

I'll wait for some more polls before I make any judgments, but one thing is clear - McCain has broken out of his lower 40s.

I missed that one, but would like to see it.

just as there was movement away from Obama following his convention.

Don't you mean, "...movement TO Obama following his convention."

Forgot to share that my wife, who up until recently was a mild Hillary supporter, has since Palin's introduction become a rabid Obama supporter.  We gave generously to his campaign.  

Just to remind everyone Palin is not going to be a long term game changer.  :)

New state polls from Rasmussen:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/ fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling

Up in CO (awesome), pretty far down in OH, down by 2 in VA,  but TIED in FL!

I knew Palin would not go over well in FL, this is pretty good proof of that.  

Thank you for some sanity... one strange poll does not the end of the world make.  Also, one favorable poll does not an election make.  It's important for people to chill out and wait to see where things settle, and in the meanwhile to keep volunteering and doing what each person is able to do.

BTW check out the new Obama "WHOA" ad on Kos...

IT'S ABOUT FREAKIN' TIME!!!!!

...but neither am I ready to hyperventilate about its results either.

But Singer, panic is all the rage here.

Perhaps Gallup is correct.  Its better to increase our efforts in electing Obama than to worry about what a certain poll says.

Pretty much the same as Gallup for the CBS poll, just weighted heavily to Dems. Look at the actual party breakdown before you draw conclusions.

Democrats
Obama   88
McCain   5

Republicans
Obama    7
McCain  87

Independents
Obama 29
McCain 55

Anyone who thinks Obama is only down 2% while losing Independents by a margin of 26 percent is delusional.

Weighted to a party id that's more likely, based on past results, the result:

McCain- 49.5
Obama- 42.5

Or better, not? Let's face it: The republican convention bounce is higher than the Dem one. Palin trumps Biden. Now, is there historic evidence that this will last only a week, and then the numbers will be the same as before? Afaik, no. So it's a bad idea to hesitate, there has to be a counter attack soon. Elections aren't won by relaxed candidates who laugh concerns off when they're actually trailing behind in the polls.