The latest Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll (852 LVs, Aug. 20-26) shows real trouble for Elizabeth Dole and John McCain in North Carolilna this November.

First off, in a head to head match-up, Elizabeth Dole is now running 5 points behind her MyDD Road to 60 challenger Kay Hagan.

Hagan 50
Dole 45

This appears to be more an anti-Dole vote than a pro-Hagan vote. First of all, only 46% of those polled are even familiar with Kay Hagan but they appear to really want Dole gone: her job approval rating is down to 38%.

Public Policy Polling, which conducted a poll around the same time and found Hagan up 3 points over Dole, attributes Hagan's lead to DSCC's strong ads against Dole:

What the DSCC is doing to Elizabeth Dole right now is the political equivalent of a punch in the gut from Muhammad Ali.

Kay Hagan has taken a narrow lead in North Carolina's Senate race after trailing by 14 points just two months ago.

There's not much doubt where the momentum is coming from. 69% of voters in the state have seen the television ads about Elizabeth Dole's #93 ranking for effectiveness in the US Senate, and among those folks Hagan has an even wider 45-39 lead. Dole's saving grace is voters who don't watch much tv- she leads 45-34 with those who have not seen the ad.

At the presidential level, while John McCain is still holding Barack Obama off, albeit by a measley 3 points (47-44), there are some real warning signs for the Republican, namely that his message simply is not getting out to North Carolina voters. Not only does Obama do better than McCain on the issues of the economy and jobs, energy and even taxes, on a personal level:

Over half (55 percent) of North Carolina voters believe the statement "has good judgment" describes Barack Obama and a majority of voters (54 percent) reject the notion that "not ready to lead" describes Obama.

In other words, Barack Obama's message about himself is getting through, John McCain's message about Obama is not.