Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Palin Speech

Last night my first reaction to Sarah Palin's speech was that it was a good one, perhaps a great one, but that it might have been a little too hot for the audience. Judging by the reports on focus groups that watched Palin's speech, it looks like my reaction might not have been that far off. First, here's Jake Tapper:

The Detroit Free Press invited a panel of Michigan voters to weigh in on Gov. Sarah Palin's speech last night. Their reactions run the gamut, but the independents didn't seem to care for her very much.

Now here's Seth Colter Walls:

In two different focus groups of Clinton-supporting Nevada women -- married and unmarried -- conducted immediately after Gov. Sarah Palin's Wednesday night speech to the Republican National Convention, a few common reactions quickly took shape.

First, women in both groups were impressed with Palin's speaking ability and poise. But they were hardly convinced that she was qualified to be vice president, or that she truly represented the "change" they were looking for, especially in light of what was deemed an overly harsh "sarcasm" pervading her address.

I'd recommend you reading through both stories to get a fuller picture of the reaction of these largely undecided voters, but what comes out is what is reported in the lede: Palin may have delivered a barnburner, and she might have gone far in helping John McCain shore up the Republican base, but when it came to wooing skeptical voters her performance was underwhelming -- and perhaps even counterproductive.

Americans aren't looking for another Newt Gingrich -- a hyper-partisan fire-breather who puts ideology and party over country -- but from the sounds of last night's speech, which again was very impressive, Palin might be just another Gingrich (or Spiro Agnew, if you prefer). Let's wait to see the polling before jumping to too hard of conclusions, both because these initial reactions are preliminary and unrepresentative and because the coverage of the speech matters nearly as much as the speech. But for now it looks like the speech might not have been the great success many within the GOP had hoped for.

Update [2008-9-4 18:54:10 by Jerome Armstrong]: Well, take te Detroit one with a large dose of skeptcism. Looks like they got played for 'Independent' alright.

Tags: Sarah Palin, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

47 Comments

Re: Focus Groups Suggest

Maybe it's a good thing that 37 million watched the speech, then.

by rfahey22 2008-09-04 12:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest

I want to hear what a focus group of male, white, working-class voters - preferably in Ohio or some other battleground state - thought of her.  If she didn't move them, McCain is cooked.

by KTinOhio 2008-09-04 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest

I suspect you'll find the reactions of working-class voters are likely to vary based on whether you talk to voters in rural areas or in urban/suburban areas.

I wouldn't be surprised to find that Palin has quite a bit of appeal in small-town America.  In the other regions, not so much.

by Steve M 2008-09-04 01:04PM | 0 recs
Oh Oh

Ouch, today's poll was taken BEFORE the Palin speech!

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/0 4/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml

by oliver777 2008-09-04 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh Oh

To quote you, "Did someone give a speech last night?"

by rfahey22 2008-09-04 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh Oh

You might try looking at more than one poll.  Take that back I was trying to be nice, I believe what you are doing is cherrypicking the polls you like, might want to look at more than one:

Real Clear Politics as of 5 pm today:

CBS News 09/01 - 09/03 734 RV 42 42 Tie

Gallup Tracking -----------Obama +7

Rasmussen Tracking ---------Obama 5

Hotline ------------------ Obama 9

Hmm, I wonder which poll has the bogus data......

by tlhwraith 2008-09-04 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh Oh

But, of course, that has you all twittery, doesnt it Oliver.

Go back to NoQuarter, I here they are holding an all night prayer vigil for Sarah Palin....

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-04 01:18PM | 0 recs
Even if you thought it was great...

...(which I don't - I thought her delivery was off, but I also think Obama frequently has issues too), what was the point of the speech?

The Clintons' great speeches were designed to promote party unity.  Obama's great speech was there to show what change meant.  Palin?  It shored up the base I guess and means that she won't be dropped, but mainly it stopped bleeding.  There's a big difference between damage control and accomplishment.

Of course it does all depend on the spin and if the uppity clip is on video that could drive more people into the camp that thinks the RNC was just being mean.

by thezzyzx 2008-09-04 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Even if you thought it was great...

yeah, i watched it on cnn and frankly i was a little surprised that they rah rah'd over the speech so much.  let's face it - she is a performer and she shows up with her game face on (a la GWB).  but what did the speech really accomplish that flipping off the cameras couldn't?

by the mollusk 2008-09-04 12:49PM | 0 recs
That's my issue

It really had no point. It wasn't designed to persuade you that Obama is bad, it just listed many criticisms of him. A subtle difference.

Bill Clinton did it best: "He's an honorable man, he loves his country, but he is wrong on the two great questions of this election".

Reaction: What do you mean Bill? Why is he wrong? Please tell me.

Palin was more like: "That low down sneaky scumbag son of a bitch has never done a decent day's work in his life, and when he fell off the turnip truck the average IQ of the turnips increased!"

Reaction: Uhhhhh..ok?

by Neef 2008-09-04 12:54PM | 0 recs
LOSER

Why do people keep saying the speech was impressive??

I found her to be a very boring speaker and her accent is really annoying.

They locked her in a room for four days to prepare.  I don't think she deserves an award for managing to stand upright, read and not drool!

I understand that she fired up their base.  I honestly don't see anything but Dan Quayle in pumps.  He fired up their base too.

Actually, I think she's fire us up just as much as she did them.

by GoldLame 2008-09-04 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds

This feels a lot like when she was nominated.  It was 1) who? 2) oh shit, this changes the game 3) ok, what else is on tv?

by the mollusk 2008-09-04 12:46PM | 0 recs
I wonder if you liked it

Because you saw it through savvy political eyes? As a political speech it was good-to-great.

Where it failed was at the gut level. It was like watching a fight where the winner keeps hitting the loser after he's down. Or watching the class president completely demolish the class nerd, and then insult his sister =). There was no moderation in it, it was zealous and completely unrelenting. It painted a negative picture very well, but it never lead you to agree with that picture (Reagan's gift).

Political success, emotional failure.

by Neef 2008-09-04 12:48PM | 0 recs
Re: I wonder if you liked it

this is why Sarah Palin is no Barack Obama (even though many would like to paint her that way).  She didn't really offer us anything new.  She didn't say "this is the way forward"!  All she did was yell smugly at everyone who disagrees with her.

by the mollusk 2008-09-04 01:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

It will only go down hill from here...She gave a prepared speech that indicated she was strong at delivering "one liners".

If you notice the one time she spoke of foreign countries, she struggled and did not look comfortable mentioning them.

But I'm a lowly "community organizer" so what do I know...

by hootie4170 2008-09-04 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

Yeah, no kidding, what do community organizers know.

Why don't you get a job with "responsibilities"; like mayor of a small town, so that you can leave them with no money.

by GoldLame 2008-09-04 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

You know we like our small towns and small town mayors.

So back off , lol..

I am not a fan of the whole small town line coming from some democrats , it seems like a lot of these folks are looking down on conservative values .

Which is a turn off..

by lori 2008-09-04 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

Why is it, I wonder, that Republicans never have to worry about turning people off?  Like, for example, folks who live in communities that need help, and the people who try to get them that help?

Why is it a sin for Democrats to insult Mississippi, but no problem for Republicans to insult Massachusetts?  I never really got this one.

by Steve M 2008-09-04 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

lol...

You do have a point there .

Probably because they really don't think they have any use for those states politically .

However national democrats seem to need to pick up 1 or 2 of these states that have a lot of these small towns . i.e. the heartland .

It's a lot about the culture wars and electoral politics...

by lori 2008-09-04 01:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

It just bugs me a lot because I like small towns, I admire the small-town lifestyle, and I know that the politics of resentment doesn't put food on anyone's table.

Something is killing off our small towns but it sure ain't liberalism.

by Steve M 2008-09-04 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

Because they're hypocrites. I don't think it's any more complicated than that.

by Dari 2008-09-04 01:42PM | 0 recs
Small Town Politics

The difference is that small-town politics is even more of a game than the big leagues. There's a "gang" atmosphere that creates dynasties and makes people who don't actually do anything take over for people who have been getting things done.

That doesn't apply to Palin, though. If anything, she was getting way too much done, just not many results that were completely beneficial to the town or the country.

by vcalzone 2008-09-04 01:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

Jesus was a "community organizer" and Pontius Pilate was a "governor"....Heh...

by hootie4170 2008-09-04 02:02PM | 0 recs
well I can tell you this much, comrade

the half a dozen skilled community organizers I talked to today are fired up to tear out her heart and show it to her while it's still beating.  And that's putting it mildly.

My best young staffer got up at 6AM this morning to pick up 100 absentee ballot requests, got a third of them filled out at her orthodontists, then went out to put in a full day's work for us.  She requested two days off next month right before the deadline to  register voters around the clock.  Why?  Sarah Palin.

oh no you didnt <shakes head> don't piss off a community organizer.

by GRO 2008-09-04 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

I wasn't a fan of the speech.

She delivered it with poise and confidence , it was pitch perfect.

However it lacked content.

by lori 2008-09-04 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

I'll have to agree that she delivered it well. This was flawed speechwriting, not flawed speaking.

by Neef 2008-09-04 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

curious.  what is your take on her appeal to small town voters?

Do you think she'll connect with them because she is one of them?  Or do you think voters will say, 'hey, i don't think my mayor is ready to be president' and discount her experience?

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-09-04 01:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

Her conservative values should help her in small towns and she does have the capacity to be a rallying force for rural and small town voters depending on how she performs , especially under scrutiny .

Her candidacy seems to me to have more of a cultural impact than a gender impact , there would no doubt be some women who would rally to her based on different reasons but it seems like she wants to more or less be the working class hero , at least that is what I got from her introduction last night .

She didn't deal with issues and specifics especially issues women care about i.e. economy , education etc , she portrayed herself as a working class woman with small town/conservative values fighting the liberal/elitist agenda , establishment , party and candidate .

If that is the direction her candidacy is taking , then I think she could possible be a force among the working class , small town voters who maybe skeptical of Obama.

We should see in a few weeks how successful she is..

by lori 2008-09-04 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

Thanks for the analysis.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-09-04 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups

It was a mean spirited speech, full of personal vitriol toward liberals & Democrats.

It excited the audiance of knuckle shufflers in the arena and watching at home on Fox, but I'd be surprised if it endears her to anyone else. It certainly didn't help make the case that Obama is high on style and short on substance, being itself high on glitz but devoid of substance.

by nintendofanboy 2008-09-04 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

OVERRATED!

by spacemanspiff 2008-09-04 01:01PM | 0 recs
Nastiness.

I felt the same way when I watched the speeches by both Giuliani and Palin.  Incredibly nasty in parts, and I just couldn't imagine it playing well with moderates.  Honestly, when Palin made the crack about community organizing, I couldn't help but think of Coulter's "faggot" remarks or Limbaugh's attacks on Michael J. Fox.  She was making a speech meant to rally her base and anger her opponents, but I really don't see it sitting well with the people that are going to decide this election... the middle.

by thatpurplestuff 2008-09-04 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Nastiness.

I wonder how the people who live in communities struck by the hurricanes feel about community organizers.  Oh wait, that's soooo Sunday-Monday.

by the mollusk 2008-09-04 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Nastiness.

Giuliani was awesome, c'mon. You can't ask for something more entertaining than that. Kucinich was the only one who got even close to that kind of fire going.

by vcalzone 2008-09-04 01:41PM | 0 recs
by kevin22262 2008-09-04 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups

My feeling was the same: She did not move anyone other than the base. Those diehards that were thinking about skipping but would never vote for Obama are still not going to vote for Obama. But Undecided? Not really. She spoke well but very unsophisticated and unprofessional Totally Partisan. That is not the right speech for a VP nominee.

In addition what is the deal with the GOP and Beauty queens. Katherine Harris w/ glasses anyone.

And what about her background. Obama went to Harvard law school. Where did she go? Idaho State U? what was her degree? Did she get one? Where did she rank?

by txexspeedy 2008-09-04 01:20PM | 0 recs
Palin took 344 points off the Dow

so much for her speech energizing America!!

I love James Wolcott

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/wolcott /

"The Palin Precipice

Not only can Sarah Palin field-dress a moose, but she can shave 344 points off the Dow with a single speech.

Well done, Medium Rea!

Sarah Palin: Bad for America, bad for wildlife, bad for your 401K."

by Dari 2008-09-04 01:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Focus Groups Suggest Undecideds Didn't Like Pa

by GRO 2008-09-04 01:36PM | 0 recs
by mady 2008-09-04 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: New CBS Poll, not such good news...

Check the diary posted on here, party ID was really different. 6% more GOP, about 4-5% less independents. Considering the GOP margin is about 90/10, the lower numbers sound about right. Particularly for one that seriously can't be pushing that hard to get such a high number of undecideds.

by vcalzone 2008-09-04 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: New CBS Poll, not such good news...

Check their party sample against the sample from last week.  As nextgen's diary points out, the "bounce" is largely attributable to a large decrease in the number of Democrats sampled.

by rfahey22 2008-09-04 02:34PM | 0 recs
Re: New CBS Poll, not such good news...

Why would they do that?

Nevermind, I'll "ask" Poblano.  Unless you already have and he doesn't know.

by MeganLocke 2008-09-04 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: New CBS Poll, not such good news...

What get headlines more? We got the same results as last week or "MAJOR SHIFT IN THE POLLS"  Not everything is politics. Somethings re just business. Rollercoaster polling data makes for better drama.

by bruh3 2008-09-04 03:45PM | 0 recs
I find it funny that Jerome was blown away.

Those are incredibly damning reactions: given the fact that the entire night was designed to produce a positive response.  This isn't a debate where if a slight majority comes away with a more negative view of you it's no big deal.

My instinct was that you have to really dislike Obama for the speech to speak to you; if you don't, then it was just watching someone wag their finger at most of America.

by MeganLocke 2008-09-04 02:42PM | 0 recs
Re: I find it funny that Jerome was blown away.

I guess you can just read my next post to learn.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-04 02:51PM | 0 recs
mediacurves suggests a push.

Mediacurves (www.mediacurves.com) did the most extensive reporting I've seen, with a thousand viewers nationwide split by party.

They asked the wrong question though - it was "do you think the selection of Palin will help or hurt John McCain's chances?"  That's asking people to tell you what they think other people are thinking.  When phrased that way, people view it positively;  that's no surprised because the media has pronounced it a success.

The interesting question is "does this make you more likely to vote for McCain?" - that's essentially "what did YOU think about the speech?"  I only looked at the Independant numbers, and it didn't move the needle - you have greater numbers saying yes and no, and fewer undecideds, but the proportions are the same.  Which a gut check ought to tell you anyway - she's a polarizing pick rather than one that's meant to appeal to independents.

Anyway, check it out.  Click on "detailed study" or whatever the actual datasheet is called - the summary is useless.

by MeganLocke 2008-09-04 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Undecideds Didn't Like Palin Speech

I can say there's one wobbly type who Palin pushed Democrat - my wife.  She was lukewarm on both the Big O and McCain, but Palin's snide, snarky, condescending speech turned her off completely.  Unfortunately we live in Nebraska, so a vote for Obama probably won't make much difference.  Still, a vote is a vote.

by jq 2008-09-04 03:39PM | 0 recs

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