NC-Pres, NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer And Bluer
by Todd Beeton, Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:40:00 PM EDT
Wow. Public Policy Polling has released its latest poll from their home turf of North Carolina (1,041 LVs, Sept. 28-29. MOE +/- 3%) and it just keeps looking better and better for Barack Obama and Democratic senate challenger (and Road To 60 candidate) Kay Hagan.
First the presidential:
From PPP's blog:
Independents are moving toward Obama in droves. Where last week he had a 42-39 advantage with them, now he is up 48-37. He also now receives 36% of the white vote, up from 33%. He will likely need 35-38% in that demographic to win the state, depending on how high turnout from black voters is.
Next the Senate race
And again, from PPP's blog:
Particularly troubling for Dole is how well Hagan is connecting with white voters. She trails Dole just 47-38 with that group. Usually for a Republican to win statewide here they need at least a 20 point advantage with whites to offset overwhelming African American support for Democratic candidates.
As was the case a week ago and really, all year, the Democrats' rise in the state has directly correlated with the increase in the number of people who list the economy as their top issue. Last week, 58% said it was their top issue and Obama and McCain were tied; this week that % is up to 64% and Barack is up by 2%.
This is now the 4th poll (2 of which were PPP) in less than 2 weeks that have shown Obama either tied with or ahead of McCain in North Carolina. Pollster's trend estimate has McCain up by just 1.5% while RCP's average has Obama up .7%. North Carolina is now a bona fide toss-up. And if you'd like to take a look at what an election night with a blue NC looks like, check out this sweet sweet EV map from RCP.
As for Hagan, this is just the latest poll showing her ahead of Elizabeth Dole. Hell, even Pollster has it colored a light shade of blue. Help Kay Hagan turn that a bright shade of blue by contributing to her campaign at our Road To 60 ActBlue page.
Update [2008-9-29 23:16:51 by Todd Beeton]:Updated with promised link to rockin RCP EV map.