NC-Pres, NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer And Bluer

Wow. Public Policy Polling has released its latest poll from their home turf of North Carolina (1,041 LVs, Sept. 28-29. MOE +/- 3%) and it just keeps looking better and better for Barack Obama and Democratic senate challenger (and Road To 60 candidate) Kay Hagan.

First the presidential:


From PPP's blog:

Independents are moving toward Obama in droves. Where last week he had a 42-39 advantage with them, now he is up 48-37. He also now receives 36% of the white vote, up from 33%. He will likely need 35-38% in that demographic to win the state, depending on how high turnout from black voters is.

Next the Senate race


And again, from PPP's blog:

Particularly troubling for Dole is how well Hagan is connecting with white voters. She trails Dole just 47-38 with that group. Usually for a Republican to win statewide here they need at least a 20 point advantage with whites to offset overwhelming African American support for Democratic candidates.

As was the case a week ago and really, all year, the Democrats' rise in the state has directly correlated with the increase in the number of people who list the economy as their top issue. Last week, 58% said it was their top issue and Obama and McCain were tied; this week that % is up to 64% and Barack is up by 2%.

This is now the 4th poll (2 of which were PPP) in less than 2 weeks that have shown Obama either tied with or ahead of McCain in North Carolina. Pollster's trend estimate has McCain up by just 1.5% while RCP's average has Obama up .7%. North Carolina is now a bona fide toss-up. And if you'd like to take a look at what an election night with a blue NC looks like, check out this sweet sweet EV map from RCP.

As for Hagan, this is just the latest poll showing her ahead of Elizabeth Dole. Hell, even Pollster has it colored a light shade of blue. Help Kay Hagan turn that a bright shade of blue by contributing to her campaign at our Road To 60 ActBlue page.

Update [2008-9-29 23:16:51 by Todd Beeton]:Updated with promised link to rockin RCP EV map.

Tags: Barack Obama, Kay Hagan, nc-pres, NC-SEN, public policy polling (all tags)



NC is good people.

Great news.


It's 'budapest' this time.  It's the same guy who has 10 accounts - like two seconds of checking who recs who will give you the names, I won't bother to list them all again.

by Jess81 2008-09-29 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: NC is good people.

Fantastic news for Dems...!  I spoke to my parents tonight in NC... Former Republicans that are REALLY disheartened with McCain and do not like Dole at all...

They are in real trouble down there.  

Oh, and have some mojo to counter any meddlesome HR's....

by JenKinFLA 2008-09-29 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: NC is good people.


My aunt in NC is incredibly psyched at the prospect of having her vote actually matter this year.

by Jess81 2008-09-29 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-Pres, NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer

We should rename ourselves "The Phoenix Party".  If we can get a 60 seat majority in the Senate and an Obama presidency maybe we can build something progressive out of the ashes of what the "conservative revolution" did to this nation.

by lockewasright 2008-09-29 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-Pres, NC-Sen:

I believe Dole is behind, but I have troube with the idea that she's under 40% in a Republican state.

by RandyMI 2008-09-29 06:27PM | 0 recs
NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer And Bluer

My inner pessimist does not want to believe these numbers. I have a lot of trouble believing the nearly 50% people in North Carolina identify with the Democratic Party (there is a distinction between what pollsters pick up regarding party affiliation on the phone and actual voter registration numbers). I have a lot of troubling believing that Dole is under 40% in such a deep red state; I mean, her approval rating is not terrible considering the current political climate and considering that she won 54% in a 2002 race against a well-funded, popular Democrat tells me that she has some solid support in the state. Finally, I have a lot of trouble believing that Republican identification is low and, at the same time, Obama is cruising with independents. What I have assumed and what has been bared out in polling this cycle is that those who identify as "independents" typically lean GOP, which is why McCain surged among this group in national polling after Palin and the convention.

Combine all of those doubts with the fact that 538 has rated PPP with a Democratic lean in-house, and I'm going to stick with that the race is still slightly in McCain's favor.

What these numbers do tell me, however, is that Virginia is now as good a pick up as Colorado. And since it looks like Obama will win Colorado, it looks like he will also win Virginia. More generally though, the map is returning to the wide-open 25 state strategy that it was in the early summer. Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada are all back in play.

by UMassforObama 2008-09-29 07:13PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer And Bluer

I agree with the vast majority of that, although I wouldn't assume Colorado and Virginia. Right now we're in an Obama surge so everything looks more likely than it is.

Voter registration indeed heavily favors Democrats in North Carolina, more than 700,000 net advantage, but in federal races the more relevant numbers are percentage of self-identified liberals and conservatives. That will likely tighten in the state this year, but it's been such a huge gap Obama will need to win nationally by at least 5% to tug North Carolina. Could happen, but my money is going the other way, particularly since Intrade is approaching 50/50 in North Carolina. Obama backers thrill to get carried away in second tier states, similar to the primaries.

The economic issues and a basic reality like lack of gas after Ike are pushing voters toward Obama in North Carolina. But 5 weeks is a ton of time for the conditions to remain at this level. You never want to over react and project based on extremes.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-09-29 10:07PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer And Bluer

Certainly not, which is why I am not overly optimistic about Obama's chances in North Carolina. I still think that a close race in the state pretty much assures us Virginia, though. In other words, there aren't a lot of situations in which Obama wins North Carolina but loses Virginia.

by UMassforObama 2008-09-29 10:27PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer And Bluer

Actually, while PPP is listed as a Democratic firm, 538 found no significant partisan lean in their results.  PPP nailed every single primary race (Republican and Democratic) this year in NC, and except for a big miss in PA, did a great job in primary polls all over the country.

Tom surely is a Democrat and wants Democrats to win, but they take great pride in unbiased polling.  I'd put as much or more faith in a PPP poll of NC as any firm.

And by the way, as an NC resident, Kay will win and Obama has at least a 50/50 chance, too.

by LanceS 2008-09-30 05:49AM | 0 recs
Re:North Carolina Looking Bluer
All my money has gone to "No on 8" (I'm in Cali) and Obama this year, but I just gave a huge chunk of change to Hagan. I would love to see a big big Senate seat go blue like this. What a slap and shock to the GOP if it happens.
I hope we see another rocking chair guys ad; I love those.
by torrentprime 2008-09-29 07:55PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-Pres, NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer

Good to see Hagen doing so well.

The DSCC has put up a new Road to Victory video - trying to track down Liddy Dole in her hometown. Good stuff. rk

by PeregrineFalcon 2008-09-29 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-Pres, NC-Sen: North Carolina Looking Bluer

3 points for Bob Barr???
I don't think so.  If Barr gets 1 point in November, I'd be shocked.

By the end of October, the financial crisis will have settled and people moved on.  

My family is from NC.  I know the folks of NC.  McCain will win NC.  There are alot of transplants in NC from the north and folks in NC don't care for them at all.

The rural votes and suburban votes outside of the Research Triangle Area and the Charlotte will vote for McCain.  NC is a BIG military state and the majority of the military will vote for McCain.

by stefystef 2008-09-30 03:35AM | 0 recs
In Hagen-Dole: still a lot of meovment to come

In canvassing for Hagen this weekend (not statistically valid, but), a lot of the registered Dem and Ind voters I met still hadn't made up their minds. But the important results from recent polls to note is that the momentum is clearly with Hagen (and yes, Obama). So Dem victory is far from a sure thing, but Todd's right that it sure is looking good right now.

by jeffbinnc 2008-09-30 04:39AM | 0 recs
Re: NC-Pres Looking Bluer

Obama is up 3 points among white voters in NC.

If he can gain 3 points over Kerry among white voters across the South he will carry Mississippi. It could happen.

by Woody 2008-09-30 05:56AM | 0 recs


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