Tracking Poll Update

by Todd Beeton, Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 11:33:32 AM EDT

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	47	42
Gallup	50	42
Rasmussen Reports	50	44
Research 2000/dKos	50	43


Average:	49.25	42.75

In one day, or I should say, by adding Saturday to the rolling average (which was the first full day since Friday's debate) and dropping Wednesday off, Barack Obama was able to add 1 full point to his average in the 4 polls. He is now at 50% in three of the trackers and his leads in Rasmussen and Gallup match the largest leads he's ever had in their polls.

From Rasmussen, which has consistently been the most favorable to McCain:

This six-point advantage matches Obama's biggest lead yet and marks the first time he has held such a lead for two-days running

In addition, while Obama's lead in the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll is one point shy of his largest lead of 8 points, his lead in Saturday polling reached 9 points, so no doubt we'll see some further upward mobility for Obama in that poll, and likely others. Remember, these numbers reflect a 3-day rolling average where approximately 1/3 of the polling would have been done post-debate. The reaction to Obama's debate performance will no doubt continue to drive these numbers up and if McCain's dour performance on This Week is any indication, the McCain campaign is ill-equipped to reverse this trend.

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Hey Singer, perhaps we should add

a link to the PA daily tracking poll as well; I cannot find a link to it at the moment but it's appearing more and more likely that McCain's hopes hinge on winning Pennsylvania because winning even both Wisconsin and New Hampshire wouldn't be enough given that Obama will likely prevail in Virginia and Colorado.

PA seems to be the one state acting oddly when compared to Obama's popular vote lead because you would expect his lead in PA to be even larger than his national lead as they were for the last five dem nominees.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-28 11:46AM | 0 recs

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Here's a funny question to ask

for those in the Warner fan club (where's lori these days?): how small is the percentage of Obama/Gilmore ticket splitter voters in VA?

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-28 11:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: Hey Singer, perhaps we should add

For McCain to win PA, he'll have to pour all of his chips in it (and since we're learning what a big gambler he is, he might). This means he's either secured a lot of difficult territory or he's lost so much ground that PA is his only nope. My bet is on the latter.

by RandyMI 2008-09-28 12:10PM | 0 recs

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His only nope?

I disagree.

Considering his polling right now, his nopes are the entire Northeast, Mid Atlantic, Upper Midwest, a good portion of the Rust Belt, the southern Rockies and Pacific basin (except for Alaska).

by Khun David 2008-09-28 05:14PM | 0 recs

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Big-time oops

I meant hope.

by RandyMI 2008-09-28 05:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hey Singer, perhaps we should add

The margin was slim when the Dems won the state in the past, and this has not always been a blue state. Remember that Obama only won 3 counties in PA in the primaries, and got creamed in the rest of them.

by Scotch 2008-09-28 12:51PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hey Singer, perhaps we should add

And he lost CA and NY and MA too!

by the mystical vortexes of sedona 2008-09-29 12:01AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

This is great news for John McCain!

by kitebro 2008-09-28 12:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

YOU FORGOT BATTLEGROUND, THE ONLY VALID POLL THERE IS!

by Zephyr 2008-09-28 12:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

So it is now clear who won the debate, all the polls suggest Obama won by a good margin. even the media spin is a slight Obama win (after saying it was a tie in the first half hour after the debate) and lots criticisms for the condescending tone and body language of Macsame.

by YourConcernsAreNoted 2008-09-28 12:28PM | 0 recs

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They actually said tie to slight McCain edge

And then the people were like: not so much.

You know they will try harder to spin the next one.

by iohs2008 2008-09-28 12:38PM | 0 recs

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Great shot kid! Now don't get cocky...

The more Obama pulls ahead, the more a desperate McCain campaign will seek attention through his "maverickitude", and the more a desperate MSM will try to make this a horse race. Obama must be increasingly careful.

Also, now is the time for all of us to canvass and phone bank with the wind in our sails.

by iohs2008 2008-09-28 12:40PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

Where is Jerome? Is it more or is his posting nearly non existent especially compared to 04 and 06?

by Bobby Obama 2008-09-28 12:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

He usually only posts when he has a "Concern" about Obama to voice.

Oh and there is his posts cherry picking polls to fit his narrative.

by YourConcernsAreNoted 2008-09-28 01:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

Haha, I just commented the same thing below, didn't notice this conversation. It seems that way to me too.

by MNPundit 2008-09-28 01:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

I notice Jerome doesn't tend to post much when news is favorable to Obama. Anyone else noticed this or am I just being biased?

by MNPundit 2008-09-28 01:23PM | 0 recs

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Looks like Jerome was right...

DKOS/Research2000 leans towards Obama by 3 points or so. This would mean that gallup (O-50 M-42) and other lefty polls like Rasmussen (O-50 M-44) point to our Dkos/R2k poll which should be (O-53 M-40).. but I guess it isn't..

new math.. gotta love it don't ya Jerome.

by Why Not 2008-09-28 01:38PM | 0 recs

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Re: Looks like Jerome was right...

Scott Rasmussen? That's guy is practically a communist! ;-)

by LordMike 2008-09-28 01:47PM | 0 recs

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7-point average lead

Looks like a start!

by Beomoose 2008-09-28 02:22PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

The fundamentals of McCain's campaign are strong.

by rfahey22 2008-09-28 03:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

It certainly is starting to make his decision to go with public financing seem wise.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-09-28 03:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

Elaborate Shaun. Did he really have any other options?

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-28 09:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

No, perhaps not, and he and the RNC have bent the rules to the breaking point but if he hadn't his fund-raising performance would be another point of comparison to Obama's campaign and I'm guessing, given Obama's $66M haul recently, it would be an uncomfortable one, and yet another potential barometer of failure at times like these.

Hillary's campaign was dogged for months by a narrative of doom in respect of her fund-raising performance and 'cash-on-hand.' I haven't heard much about such issues since in spite of Obama's impressive figures, that's all.

I recall for months of the pre-Iowa primary it was the only metric we had besides polls and Obama's impressive early performance was important to lending credibility to his campaign during the long, dog-days of summer a year ago.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-09-28 09:39PM | 0 recs