what's left in this year's baseball season.

the R2K/Daily Kos poll wasn't such an outlier!

Oh, wait...

Really, what appears to have happened is that R2K was a little on the optimistic edge of the MoE, and Ras was a little on the pessimistic edge. And now that they've both resorted to their means, everything lines surprisingly nicely.

I think the most striking data to come from these tracking polls is the consistency. Obama is at 50-49, McCain is at 44-43, which is basically what the margin was all summer.

I obviously don't have any evidence to back me up, but I think this is what happened last night: The public is a little bit weary about Obama's foreign policy experience, but also far more concerned with the economy; now they are sufficiently satisfied that he can do the job as Commander-in-Chief, and are re-focusing their attentions to the economy. So, in a way, the typical swing voter might be saying... "OK, OK, he's fine with Iraq, let's just get him in there so he can fix the economy".

When voter perceptions harden like that, it's very difficult for any new tactic to work.

Now, that's not to say that something that could change those perceptions can't happen. As we've seen with McCain's already erratic campaign, expect plenty more Hail Marys in the next month or so. This is a tight race and will remain so until the end.

Put aside the snap, crackle and pop polls for a minute.  Does anyone think that after last night's debate Obama's poll numbers will go down?  Was there anything that would cause him to lose support?

I think not.

was probably 8 years ago during the Gore/Bush election; I can't think of a skit from 4 years ago that was memorable in they Kerry/Bush election.

And I say this as their target audience; young, urban and male with a disposable income. I just don't find it funny anymore; I went through last week's episode with John Franco without laughing for the first three skits before I switched it off.

Mostly relief,  Here's what Hillary said:

Hillary Clinton issued the following statement responding to tonight's presidential debate:

"Tonight Barack Obama displayed beyond a doubt that he understands both the gravity of the financial crisis facing America, and the challenges we face in Iraq and around
the world. Senator McCain offered only more of the same failed policies of the Bush Administration. America deserves better.

"I stood next to Barack Obama in 22 debates and tonight epitomized why millions are joining me in standing with him and working hard to ensure he is the next President of the United States."

I'm generally pretty cautious on these things, but going into the debate I thought this election just might be on the verge of breaking wide open, and frankly, the debate just may have done it.

Interestingly, the thing that I thought Obama did best is the very item that many on liberal blogs have been criticizing - his open agreement with McCain on certain statements.  There are several reasons.  First, McCain made some good statements - it would have been petty for Obama not to acknowledge them.  Second, he never just said "you're right John", he always added "but" and brought in some related issue on which he strongly degrees with McCain.  Plus, he didn't just criticize, but laid out precisely why he disagrees.  By first agreeing it make his criticisms that much more credible - there weren't just partisan attacks.  Finally, both have presented themselves as post-partisan, but only Obama actually came across that way.  Moderate and independent voters want a government that worked, and last night Obama looked like the kind of man who can do that.

Therefore, for the above reason, and the fact that Obama clearly came across as knowledgeable and prepared, and someone who can be trusted with the Presidency, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the undecideds start migrating strongly to Obama.

the potential 2-2/2 points we'd lose from racism according to the yahoo poll are made up by the fact that young kids use cellphones and aren't being polled proportionately.  kind of odd how these things work themselves out.

If this debate had been on radio, McCain would have done better. Unfortunately for McCain, people starting buying that darn picture box when he was in his 20's.

Could someone please explain how tracking polls are different from normal polls to the statistically inept like myself.  Also, are "today's" numbers from today's phone calls so after last nights debate or from yesterday so the debate hasn't been factored in yet
Thanks for any information you can provide.

After last night, Obama will continue to lead.  I was talking to my republican friends today and most of them agreed that they felt McCain was an "asshole".  The obnoxious way of not even acknowledging Obama resonated with many Americans.  Makes you think, "do we want THAT again in the White House?"  Finally, Obama made people feel it was ok to vote for him.  

All around, bad for John McCain.

One of a few examples of McCain being the irrelevant congressional insider mired in inside baseball Americans don't know or care about.  Like Gore in 2000 and Dole in 96.  I thought Obama missed an opportunity here.  When McCain criticized him for not holding hearings on Afghanistan, he should've answered, "Tell you what, John.  When I'm president, you can do whatever you want with your subcommittees".

Never mind that Democrats will control them all...