Post-Debate Thread

My first thought: Think 1980, Ronald Reagan getting a major bump just from standing next to Jimmy Carter. Think 2004, John Kerry getting a major bump during the fist debate standing next to George W. Bush. The question is whether the candidate newer to the scene can stand toe-to-toe with the candidate longer on the national scene, and clearly on this front Barack Obama was able to speak as forcefully as John McCain. In this regard, Obama passed the most important test of the night. And to reiterate a point I made earlier, John McCain sounded like a Senator while Obama looked like a President.

And to take a step back, remember this: It is McCain who is losing this race right now, trailing in the national polling and in the statewide polling, and thus is was McCain who needed a huge night. He didn't get it, even on his home territory, and thus it was a missed opportunity.

What did you think?

Update [2008-9-26 22:51:7 by Todd Beeton]:I wish I could say we had a clear win for Barack. The first half, I think Barack won on substance and won on points. Barack also hit back on McCain as he tried to diminish him. The second half, though, McCain roared back, both substantively and on style -- with some newfound energy, and Barack suddenly seemed to wither under the force. Now, Obama I think exceeded expectations as far as going toe to toe with McCain on foreign policy, so to that extent, he did himself some real good tonight. He came off not only as presidential -- i.e. someone who seems like a president, but he came off as a guy who can do the job.

There's a lot of talk on MSNBC about John McCain's demeanor. He came off as mean, condescending and a jerk, not looking at Barack once the whole night, while Barack came off as Mr. nice guy. This is generally the sort of thing people judge candidates on when they make their voting decisions, so the question is, will people judge McCain harshly for acting like a dick or will they see it as strength? Will they like Barack more or will they think he allowed McCain to roll over him?

Update [2008-9-26 22:53:21 by Todd Beeton]:MSNBC seems to think McCain won, CNN thinks it was a tie. Anyone know the results of the focus groups?

Update [2008-9-26 22:55:55 by Todd Beeton]:I agree with David Gergen: "I think John McCain needed a clear victory tonight and that eluded him. And this was supposed to be his strongest topic."

Update [2008-9-26 23:0:5 by Todd Beeton]:The CNN panel made a key point: Barack Obama criticized John McCain on policy. McCain on the other hand attacked Obama personally, calling him naive and not ready. When McCain did that, the Independents in their focus group were turned off.

Update [2008-9-26 23:5:26 by Todd Beeton]:But it should be noted that when John McCain acted like a dick against Romney in the primary debates, he was punished with winning the nomination.

Update [2008-9-26 23:5:26 by Todd Beeton]:Good to see Joe Biden is on message: "John McCain was on his strongest turf today and he lost and I think it's going to be fatal." Ha, and he's setting expectations for next week's VP debate. "I have great respect for what I hear and watch in some of the debating skills of Governor Palin. I think it's going to be a tough debate." Umm, it better not be.

Tags: Debate, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

63 Comments

I am disappointed

that he did not address the GI bill

by Monkei 2008-09-26 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

First half..McCain...

Second Half...Obama.

A draw.

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-26 06:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

wow, I saw it exactly oppositely.  I thought Obama manhandled McCain early on, but McCain came on later, and Obama was not aggressive enough in responding to the repeated claims by McCain regarding his naievty.

by slynch 2008-09-26 06:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I agree... If this was a 10 round match... Obama won the first 5 rounds... McCain won 3 of the next 4 and the last was a tie.   Obama wins this, can improve (and hopefully someone will tell him to stop saying I AGREE WITH JOHN) however and will be even stronger next go around.

by yitbos96bb 2008-09-26 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I agree with Yitbos...

by Shaun Appleby 2008-09-27 12:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I have to agree. Mccain was aggressive and pressed the issue during the economy part and was able to frame it around his issues. He seemed very condescending during the foreign policy debate. He started showing off his passport and rambling incoherently.  

by kbal 2008-09-26 07:00PM | 0 recs
Surprising

Obama more than held his own (and perhaps even beat McCain) on foreign policy.  McCain more than held his own on the economy.

Obama is as strong a dem as we have on foreign policy; that he didn't get destroyed on the surge or preconditions point was good (according to the CNN tracker).

McCain didn't get destroyed on the economy and we've got to work on how Obama can get out more ahead of McCain on this issue.  McCain turned it into a discussion about spending and earmarks, which are his strengths.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-26 06:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Surprising

Agreed. I think Obama was overprepared for Foriegn Policy and under prepared for the Economy.

Still, basically a draw.

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-26 06:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Surprising

A draw is a win for Obama.  McCain needs to stop the slide.  He didn't do that tonight.

by fogiv 2008-09-26 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Surprising

When it comes to the ecnomy, the polling is clear that voters trust Democrats and want change. Obama's task was to prove his mettle in foreign policy.

by RandyMI 2008-09-26 06:49PM | 0 recs
McCain was pretty strong

in the economy portion.

Obama was impressive in the foreign policy segment; not getting beat on the surge and preconditions was top-notch.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-26 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

Hard to watch. Like watching your kids in a play and hoping they don't screw up.

McCain is a real asshole. He could not even force himself to look at Obama. His disdain is evident, he looked small but was crisp.

No game changer, and thats just fine because thats all Obama needed, he's ahead on points.

by Iago 2008-09-26 06:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

"Hard to watch. Like watching your kids in a play and hoping they don't screw up."

No kidding.

by vinny 2008-09-26 07:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I feel uncomfortable about Obama's performance. He is too deferential in debates and let McCain run roughshod over him too many times.

That being said there was no big hit for either candidate which is okay (though not great) for Obama.

by JDF 2008-09-26 06:49PM | 0 recs
highs and lows:

I thought Obama's best moments were when he hit McCain on his judgement to rush into Iraq and abandon Afghanistan.  

The two worst moments were "I am very proud of my VP pick" and "I have a bracelet too."  

Jury is still out about whether he was right to ignore the total condescension "he just doesn't understand" -- Obama clearly will do anything to avoid ever looking like the angry black man, ever, until the end of this campaign.

by snowback 2008-09-26 06:49PM | 0 recs
Obama was right to ignore the condescension

It just makes McCain look small and non-Presidential

by antiHyde 2008-09-26 06:53PM | 0 recs
Re: highs and lows:

I loved the "I have a bracelet too" moment!  It showed that Obama cares too, and that he has spoken to milatary mom's who want their kids to come home.

I did want him to ask McCain where the troops were going to come from for Afghanistan if he wasn't pulling them out of Iraq!

by Pa Woman 2008-09-26 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

first thought. u are wrong

secondthought. "I gotta bracelet too!!"

by jimm 2008-09-26 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

There is no objective truth. The "winner" will be determined by the media using their usual alchemy. Al Gore won a debate only to find out much later that he actually lost badly (thanks to the media) because he sighed. Or something.

So we'll see.

I'm both eager for and afraid of the VP debate. Unfortunately, we already know the bar is set so low for Palin, all she has to do is not drool and the media will hail it as a HUGE COMEBACK VICTORY!!! We've already seen this game played out at the repug convention. Then again, if she's as insanely bad as she was with Katie Couric, not even the media's narrative-cheerleading will help her.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-09-26 06:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

The VP debate might be more of a game changer than this one if it reinforces her, uh, ya know, the airspace. Should be a dandy.

by Iago 2008-09-26 06:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

The 'airspace?'  Oh, you got me, vodka and tonic all over the screen.  Sheesh.  Too early or too late for that kind of comment.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-09-27 12:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I felt that Obama more than held his own.  I wish he would not have deferred so much to McCain, but he was right on a lot of the international issues, one of the biggest being his comments on Kissenger.  For someone who has known Kissinger for 35 years, he apparently doesn't listen to him.

by Pa Woman 2008-09-26 06:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I think you have to look at it in terms what they needed to do. Did McCain knock Obama out? Did Obama settle concerns about his mastery of foreign policy?

by RandyMI 2008-09-26 06:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

No. Yes.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-09-27 12:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I gotta disagree.

I really think Obama was much better in the second half than the first.

I actually saw the first half as more toss-up and the second half more Obama.

I think his style fits foreign policy better.  Maybe that's just because I'm more a foreign policy wonk, but that's just how I saw it.

by zonk 2008-09-26 06:59PM | 0 recs
CBS' focus group says Obama won...

...strongest positive emotion elicited during the debate was when Obama nailed McCain on Iraq.

I respect Gergen more than the rest of the pundits put together...IMHO, what he says is usually the most objective take.

Essentially, if this was McCain's strongest suit, then look for him to get hammered going forward.

by bobswern 2008-09-26 07:00PM | 0 recs
Re: CBS' focus group says Obama won...

I generally look to Gergen, Toobin and Harwood. MSNBC is worthless. They are classic at forming a weak opinion on debate night then shifting with the tide a day later, particularly Matthews. Their only analyst I used to respect on debates was Scarborough.

Toobin focused on the "not prepared," "you're right, John" aspect. Harwood was more in line with my perspective, that Obama started slow and nervous but really picked it up later on. Then I thought McCain improved in the final 10 or 15 minutes.

I talked to my dad and he surprised me by calling McCain the winner. He thought Obama got too uptight while McCain was speaking, trying to break in and with frustrated facial expressions, making it look like McCain was calmly in control with Obama on the defensive. I agree with the basics of that, in fact I mentioned them in a previous comment in a different diary, but I don't think it was enough to alter the outcome. I believe Obama won but he wasn't outstanding.

Overall it's like the Olympic Games. Immediately in the postscript you might remember dozens of minor specifics but down the road only a handful, at most, stick with you. I'll remember this debate as the most boring presidential debate I've ever seen, with an audience that might as well have been corpses.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-09-26 07:23PM | 0 recs
CNN focus group

seemed to say that Obama tied, or even won, the foreign policy portion.

It also seemed to say that McCain tied, or even won, the economy portion.

That's what the trackers seemed to show in my opinion, though others may have seen it differently.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-26 07:00PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN focus group

I guess that means it's me and the focus group then, because I wholeheartedly agree.

I thought Obama was OK on the economy, but I felt he was much stronger on foreign policy.

by zonk 2008-09-26 07:02PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN focus group

McCain lost me on "freeze"  Absolutely wrong!

by Pa Woman 2008-09-26 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN focus group

I swear I felt a 'disturbance in the force' emanating from the vicinity of DC when he said that.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-09-27 12:14AM | 0 recs
On the economy

I think Obama let McCain drive the discussion towards earmarks, a strength of McCain's though I am a pro-earmarks guy.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-26 07:05PM | 0 recs
Re: On the economy

And I think that makes McCain look more stupid.    Here was McCain fighting over $18 Billion.  Saying how he was going to cure Washington by cleaning up that $18 billion when we have a bailout bill of $700 billion.  That is over 36 years of earmarks.

Fine, let's clean up earmarks, but if that is all you can do, then you have no plan

by gavoter 2008-09-26 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: On the economy

Obama needs a good analogy to put the $18b in perspective.  People hear $18B and say, whoa, that's a lot of money.

Something like, focusing all your energy on $18B when the federal budget is $XXXXB, is a little like not ordering pizza one night because you can't afford your mortgage.  

Ummm, OK, maybe the professionals can help me out.  I just think Barack needs a good, easy to understand analogy to throw out and show how frivolous the earmark issue is in the broader scope of things.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-09-26 07:32PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN focus group

I agree...

Obama was NOT prepared to hit him on the economy, but McCain played the Make up for vietnam/Not loose in Iraq card....

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-26 07:06PM | 0 recs
Biden trying to raise

expectations for Palin, heh heh.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-26 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

So first off i admit i didnt watch.  I supported HRC and frankly i dont care to watch either of them and i am voted for BO and my personal feelings about him will remain my own and i will vote my party, period.

But based in the intrade markets McCain won this debate by a nose.  McCain picked up 3.8% and BO lost 2.2% in the intrade markets over the debate.  Now that is just people betting on the election but IMHO the markets are pretty good at making a unbiased prediction on which way the race is going.

Now i am not saying this will change the outcome in Nov i am just using the market to determine who won tonight.

david

by giusd 2008-09-26 07:06PM | 0 recs
Intrade

538 has a piece detailing funny business that's been apparently going on at Intrade, it's worth checking out.  http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/i ntrade-betting-is-suspcious.html

On the 538 post-debate blog he notes the discrepancy between Intrade & IOE:

9:55 CDT: [Nate] Obama moved up 3 points in the Iowa Electronic Markets, but lost 3 points on Intrade. Given the funny business we've seen on Intrade lately, you'll know which of those two indicators I'd tend to trust.

by January 20 2008-09-26 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

David, we are glad to have your vote.  I wondered about you but you are clearly a true believer and that's good enough for me.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-09-27 12:16AM | 0 recs
Todd...

You said:

Update [2008-9-26 23:5:26 by Todd Beeton]:But it should be noted that when John McCain acted like a dick against Romney in the primary debates, he was punished with winning the nomination.

Republicans usually like the more dickish guy. They cheer torture for gods sake. They sing about bombing countries. This isn't a Republican primary.

by recusancy 2008-09-26 07:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Todd...

jinx

buy me a coke

by zonk 2008-09-26 07:11PM | 0 recs
It should also be noted

Update [2008-9-26 23:5:26 by Todd Beeton]:But it should be noted that when John McCain acted like a dick against Romney in the primary debates, he was punished with winning the nomination.

It was a Republican nomination contest.  Republicans like dicks (stop laughing, you know what I mean).   With the Democratic battle full tilt, I don't think there were a lot of indies voting in the GOP primaries.

If Sarah Palin didn't finally lock up the GOP base, I suppose McCain could go the asshole route to get any wingers he hasn't brought on board yet... he'll also lose by 15 pts because indies will desert him in drove.

by zonk 2008-09-26 07:09PM | 0 recs
Preconditions

How did McCain fail to mention that Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, and his most prominent supporter, Hillary Clinton, bashed Obama for his initial preconditions comment?  He blew a major opportunity.

McCain gave us a break with this one, the trackers seemed to like Obama's preconditions segment.  The surge and preconditions should have been McCain's trump card but Obama more than held his own.  

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-26 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I'm surprised to see people claiming McCain won the economy section.  For real?  Honestly, I don't see how earmarks or any of the other crap McCain talked about connected with voters.  With Obama, I got lots of bullet points, wasn't afraid to directly lay blame, etc.  Basically, putting on my "average voter" hat I just felt Obama pressed all the right buttons during the economy section.  Your typical voter is going to be a lot more worried about their job, retirement, and financial security than they are random inside-baseball gov spending things.  Obama reassured them, and McCain didn't.

On foreign policy, as someone who agrees with Obama, I of course thought he won.  I think average voters will probably recognize McCain has "tougher" internationally but probably see Obama s smarter.  McCain failed to paint Obama as naive, but he did succeed in not painting himself as a warmonger.

by Homebrewer 2008-09-26 07:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

When I say "Won" I mean McCain kept it on Earmarks and taxes...

Obama COULDN'T, though he tried, nail him on the Republicans CAUSING this melt down, running up the deficit.....

Obama will have to focus up for the debate on the economy later....

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-26 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I got the impression both McCain and Obama were keeping their powder dry for the next debate.  The final debate is ultimately the most important.

by Homebrewer 2008-09-26 07:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

Agreed.  The next time McCain brings up the Washington spending BS, Obama needs to point out that when Bill Clinton left the govt was running $200 billion per year surpluses and was buying back debt and George Bush squandered it on tax cuts, Iraq, etc with McCain's help.

by jmnyc 2008-09-26 07:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

Well apparently a focus group saw it the exact opposite as I did.  Oh well!  In my defense... they gave us the Ford Edsel.

by Homebrewer 2008-09-26 07:17PM | 0 recs
From CBS:

CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened.

These figures are still preliminary and could change as more respondents complete the survey. But here's what we have so far:

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.

Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.

Forty-nine percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. Fifty-five percent think McCain would.

We will have a full report on the poll later on. Uncommitted voters are those who don't yet know who they will vote for, or who have chosen a candidate but may still change their minds.

by Deeg 2008-09-26 07:15PM | 0 recs
Re: From CBS:

Sweet! Sweet! Sweet!!!!!

by LordMike 2008-09-26 07:19PM | 0 recs
Just two tips for Barack
confidential to Barack Obama: 1) I can see letting the torture vote slide by to avoid 4 encores of "POW POW POW", but on all other issues, stop giving McCain a pass. 2) Please add at least one more hand gesture to your repertoire. The "Palin's expertise is this big" gesture is a nice alternative to the Clintonian finger-point, but it's getting really old.
by chiefscribe 2008-09-26 07:17PM | 0 recs
Repubs like dicks; independents don't.

Update [2008-9-26 23:5:26 by Todd Beeton]:But it should be noted that when John McCain acted like a dick against Romney in the primary debates, he was punished with winning the nomination.

by Bush Bites 2008-09-26 07:18PM | 0 recs
CBS Thought Obama Won

Their focus group of undecided voters and "scientific" instant poll had Obama winning.

I think CBS got it right. It was a lot like Kennedy-Nixon. McCain was tense and emotional, while Obama was calm and more relaxed. On radio, McCain seemed to win, but on TV Obama seemed to win. I thought this, too. When I watched, I thought Obama was winning, but thought McCain was winning when I just listened.

by Zzyzzy 2008-09-26 07:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

couldn't look Obama in the eye.

'nuff said.

game set match

all the rest is noise.

by mydailydrunk 2008-09-26 07:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

Winning and Losing is kind of a stupid way to look at things. There is no objective set of criteria to determine victory and defeat, and they only standard politicos have is polling. If people are overwhelmingly stupid a victory is actually a defeat.

That said, everything that came out of McCain's mouth was either a lie, a mistruth, or an idiocy. This guy would be a disaster for this country, which at the moment would be business as usual. Obama is more even-handed but some of his answers indicated he will be somewhat Republican Lite on Foreign Policy(I will bomb them, but I will have great discussions about it first). His backing of missile defense is irrational, as was his description of Georgia as the victim of the South Ossetia war. But I guess you don't score any points for saying Russia was right in any context.

McCain was a grumpy old man who fervently believes his own bullshit and gets visibly angered at any challenge to it. It's hard to believe for someone who spent such a long career in the military coming from a military family that he is such an amateur when it comes to history and even military history. This guy is dumber than Bush, cause Bush I don't think ever thought he was an expert in anything other than "from the gut" thinking. John McCain lives in a country where states control the world, there are goodies and baddies, and the US kicks ass every baddie it can find. His worldview is stuck at about 60 years ago.

Obama gets double points in my book for mentioning that Ahmedinijad wasn't the most powerful person in his own country, which for some reason caused McCain to laugh. Foreign policy expert my ass.

by wengler 2008-09-26 07:24PM | 0 recs
Short-term, McCain won

No, not on points.  Not on anything other than he showed up and did not act weird and off his meds.  He's had such a horribly strange two weeks that I think he'll get a little bump just by passing himself off as a vaguely intelligent human being.

That said, if the bar is that low for McCain, that means he is digging himself out of a crater he himself created.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-09-26 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I'm concerned that McCain found his message at the end.  Obama needs to be crisper on the economy.

by esconded 2008-09-26 07:33PM | 0 recs
C in C test

This was the big test for the night and Obama passed.   The truth is the points on debate really aren't going to matter.  What is going to matter tonight is style over substance.  Can people look at Obama and see him defending the country as Commander in Chief.

I think that the answer is yes.  This means that even if pundits give McCain a narrow victory in the debate that was the one he was always supposed to win anyway, it really doesn't matter.

In a change election, the swing voters who matter, determine if the change candidate looks safe enough.  I think that Obama accomplished that task just as Reagan did in 1980.  After tonight it is going to be much harder for McCain to convince those Swing voters that Obama is too dangerous for the job.

by gavoter 2008-09-26 07:34PM | 0 recs
Past versus future

I think Obama focused way to much on the past.  Not on fixing the problems of the day, but pointing blame.  Becuase this was such a focus of most of his answers, the base will feel better, but I think he lost the middle.

He obviously lost the economy debate when he consistanly conceded his very campaign promises to the whole "cutting spending".  Under presure he caved(though he did pick it up towards the end standing for his policies).  

I think as far as camapaign strategy it is obvious the McCain camp wanted the public to see this debate.  They did everything they could to wave the stick in front of the media and keep the attention of the America public on the debate.  With the additional economy problems, I would guess the ratings will approach 90 million.

I guess we will have to see how it pans out over the next week or so.  Then the VP debate is on.

by Classical Liberal 2008-09-26 08:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Past versus future

As always, take what Classic Republic says and reverse it.

It was McCain who wants to FINALLY WIN Vietnam by NOT LOOSING In Iraq.

Every pundit, every poll seems to say McCain is looking backwards, Obama fowards...

Sorry, Classic Republic, the polls so far are refuting you 100%.

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-26 08:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Past versus future

Okay - I will watch the debate again and re-evalutate, but I think it is one thing to believe the storm of buzz, which is nothing but scripted lines starting with the VP and the pundits, and another to hear from the canidates' mouths. We can discuss the polls in a day or so when the effect is measured somewhat.  I could be completely wrong.

by Classical Liberal 2008-09-26 08:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

I call it a tie. But I also thought it was a great debate over all.  They were both on top of their game with their strengths on display. Obama with his cool demeanor and McCain with his personal experience with just about everything.  

However, you never know how it is going to resonate with the independents and undecideds. It looks like the focus groups favor Obama.

As for Biden v. Palin.  It is Mrs. Clueless vs. Mr. Wildcard. Who knows what Palin will draw a blank on and who knows what the hell Biden will say. Roosevelt on TV in 1929? Sheesh.  Can Biden stay on message? Has Palin heard of Fannie Mae?  Who knows? It should be a hoot!

by dMarx 2008-09-26 09:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Post-Debate Thread

Yeah, opportunities like this don't come along very often, Joe Lunchpail Gaffeproof vs Ms Alaskan Airspace of 2008.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-09-27 12:21AM | 0 recs

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