Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

by Jonathan Singer, Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 09:46:17 AM EDT

Here are today's numbers:

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	48	42
Gallup	47	44
Rasmussen Reports	49	47
Research 2000/dKos	48	44


Average:	48.00	44.25

The Battleground tracker (.pdf), which covers the last three days but also last Wednesday and Thursday, shows John McCain leading 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, while a Washington Post-ABC News survey of likely voters (which I will discuss a little more in a moment) gives Barack Obama a 9-point lead, 52 percent to 43 percent. An Ipsos (.pdf) poll of registered voters for McClatchy shows Obama leading by a narrower 44 percent to 43 percent margin. Update [2008-9-24 14:36:58 by Jonathan Singer]: A Fox News poll puts Obama up 45 percent to 39 percent among registered voters.

The McCain campaign did not like the results of the WaPo-ABC poll, and so they sent out their pollster to do some push back by way of conference call. But as Marc Ambinder notes, the spin from the McCain campaign was not by any means overwhelming.

McInturff told reporters this morning that he considered the poll problematic because party identification trends were not factored in the results, undecided voters were pushed to choose a candidate, and the 16 point party identification gap was much too big. McInturff said that McCain will win of the party ID gap is reduced to four points or so -- today, he estimates that Republicans are down six to eight points.
But so does ABC News. Their measure of unleaned -- as in -- non-pushed -- party identification among their likely voter sample was 37% for Democrats and 30% for Republicans -- a spread of seven points.

It's worth underscoring a point from the quoted section above: McCain's pollster believes that the current partisan identification spread within the electorate is 6 to 8 points in favor of the Democrats. This means that the WaPo-ABC survey the McCain campaign is working so hard to deny is right in the zone of where the campaign sees the race currently sitting, in terms of partisan breakdown of the electorate, and the R2K polling for Daily Kos is not very far outside of the range, either, with the Democrats holding a 9-point edge in self-identification. Gallup, which now gives the Democrats a 10-point edge (up from just 5 points in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention), might be a tad on the high end at this point, at least if McInturff's view of the race holds true.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

Some of these poll can't be right!

They are to similiar to the Daily Kos tracker!w

Which means none of them are credible. What a joke!

Except for Rasmussen (of course) we all know it's a virtual tie in that one.

No. No. No.

Obama is in deep trouble here.

by spacemanspiff 2008-09-24 09:56AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

The clock strikes.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-24 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

I'm not sure I understand your comment. Could you elaborate a little?

by the mystical vortexes of sedona 2008-09-24 10:24AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

This is confusing apples with oranges. Party ID gap and likely voter turnout by party ID are two different things.

You see that on the Research2000 polls, where they have the party ID number at 6% and the LV party ID at 9%.

And Gallup is the same way. All voters, a big dem lead, RV less, and LV lesser.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-24 09:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

Actually, didn't mean to imply that Gallup was the same way as Research200, but that it was the same way in regards of having different numbers for different samples, "the Democratic advantage in party affiliation is not as large among registered voters (51% to 42%) as it is in the total adult population (49% to 39%)." And their LV is about 4% more Republican. It's odd that Research2000 goes the other way, but not surprising given its demographic tilt.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-24 10:08AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

"This is confusing apples with oranges. Party ID gap and likely voter turnout by party ID are two different things."

From what I understand, McInturff was addressing LV turnout, saying that LV polls should show a spread right now of closer to 6-8 points, that he hopes it's 4. He was making an apples to apples comparison to shoot down the ABC poll.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-09-24 10:32AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

The McCain campaign spin is laughable and I think you missed the clearest reason why.

If you look at the internals, you see that the 16-point "net leaners" spread the McCain camp points to is virtually the same as it's been in most of the other polls from the same outfit.

Click here and scroll down to #17, "NET LEANED PARTY." You will see that the Dem number has not been under 50% in any poll this year. And the GOP number has never been over 42%, in fact it's usually under 40%.

In fact, the exact same number the McCain camp points to in calling this an outlier - 54-38 spread among leaners - was the case for the 6/15/08 poll from the same outfit. That poll found 54% Dems + Dem leaners, 38% Reps + Rep leaners. And the bottom line? It had McCain up 1 point!

Who knows, maybe this poll is an outlier, but the proof sure isn't in the numbers the McCain campaign chose to highlight. There's absolutely nothing about a 54-38 spread that necessarily indicates the poll is bad.

by Steve M 2008-09-24 10:55AM | 0 recs

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STP!!!

I'm sticking with it...

Screw the Polls, Screw the Pundits....

But, MAYBE we are getting lucky and McCain's team has worked the media so incompetently that they may FINALLY be waking up from their bush-induced slumber.

So, maybe just maybe, when the McCain team tries desperately to change the conversation (they may have to play the Michelle is Angela Davis/Rev Wright/Bill Ayers card early) the media FINALLY isn't lead around by the nose this time, and ignores the bait.

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-24 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Should McCain be whining about polls?

I understand that it can impact fund raising, but he's done fund raising. His line now should be "the only poll that matters..." By whining about it, he only draws more attention to it, comes across like Lady MacBeth, and underscores the perception that he's losing.

by Drummond 2008-09-24 10:01AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

It doesn't give me the result I like, so I will inore it. I will stick with the battleground poll because it is the result I do like.

by RandyMI 2008-09-24 10:05AM | 0 recs

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so

Typical.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-24 10:09AM | 0 recs

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Re: so

I'm not sure I get the reply... are you saying that it's typical behavior to cherry-pick polls to get the result you want?

It does pretty much seem like that, a lot of the time.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-09-24 10:18AM | 0 recs

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Re: so

Pavlovian

by RandyMI 2008-09-24 10:39AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

I'm glad that we are back to fighting about which poll showing Obama ahead is correct.

by UMassforObama 2008-09-24 10:11AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

Great comment. It's a good problem to have.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-09-24 10:19AM | 0 recs

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Poll Spin

This is a close race in the same sort of way that the Primaries were close after Super Tuesday. Here's my take: Obama will be the next President of the United States of America. Any and all attempts to conjure up scenarios which end up differently is just a way of keeping the conversation going.

Yup. Yup.

Now I'm going to try to book a ticket and a room for the best damned Inauguration Parade in a very very long time.

by QTG 2008-09-24 10:12AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

we don't need a 100 years of the Bush / McCain economy.

by leftcoastfan 2008-09-24 10:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

ahem:

FOX poll...

ready?

Obama 45%

McCain 39% (note... below 40%)

from Fox nonetheless. Cue th McCain camp screaming about how Fox is obviously in the tank for Obama.

(oh, and there is a 52 point gap between Biden and Palin)

by notedgeways 2008-09-24 10:24AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

Sounds like a lot of undecideds to me (and my untrained ears). I wonder if they skewed both numbers down a little to keep Obama farther from 50%.

by the mystical vortexes of sedona 2008-09-24 10:26AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge

More on the Fox poll (and I missed the 52-point gap between Biden and Palin -- which question?)

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll:

O 45 M 39, among RVs. MOE 3%

Demographic split 41% Dem, 34% Rep, 21% Ind, 2% other, 2% don't know/won't state.

Highlights:

O up 36-31 with independents.

Favorable/unfavorable:

Obama 57/33 (0/-3 from last poll -- 8-9 Sep 08)
McCain 54/38 (-6/+5 from last poll)
Biden 48/31 (-3/+2 from last poll)
Palin 47/36 (-7/+9 from last poll)

So Obama is the only one who's gaining favorability. Biden is down 5, net. McCain down 11, Palin down 16.

Obama now considered a better adviser on "the most important decision in your life" 41/40 over McCain; last time it was O34 M50.

McCain's attacks on Obama unfair? 47% yes, 46% no.
Obama's on McCain? 36% yes, 56% no

Economy top issue for 46%. Obama leads 47% to 37% for McCain on "trust more to handle the economy".
Obama also leads on taxes, health care, and energy independence; McCain leads on terrorism and Iraq.

McCain leads on experience. Obama leads on judgment, change, and understanding people's problems.

Bailout -- approve 41%, disapprove 45%.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-09-24 10:38AM | 0 recs

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what's the story...

with the Battleground tracker? What are they seeing or doing that no one else is? The one page chart/graphic is the only thing they release?

by mboehm 2008-09-24 10:26AM | 0 recs

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Re: what's the story...

One thing is that it's not a national poll. It just Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. So in a poll of 14 states that went 9-5 to Bush, McCain is doing slightly better than average. If they go 7-7, Obama wins.

by thezzyzx 2008-09-24 10:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: what's the story...

It would seem that if they only polled those 14 states in aggregate then any one state completely out of line with the others would skew the whole poll.

by notedgeways 2008-09-24 10:52AM | 0 recs

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Their own poll doesn't show them ahead

That's the implication from what I've read. And Palin isn't sinking it to the electorate-- a little late, in my opinion, but whatever we aren't dealing with a country full of rocket scientists.

by gecollin 2008-09-24 10:32AM | 0 recs

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as a rocket scientist

i resent that comment!

by sepulvedaj3 2008-09-24 12:42PM | 0 recs