Has anyone brought this up with Markos?

As a rule, I'd take 2 points off the margin with the DailyKos poll and add 2 to the margin in Rasmussen.  That puts the margin around where most others have the race.

My day is complete.

Nah seriously I do think Research 2000 is a tad favorable to Obama (and Democrats), but its results aren't that far removed from the rest of the polls.  Certainly they're not as bad as Strategic Vision, which is about 5% more GOP than other polls.  If they did national polls they'd probably still find McCain up.

Even so, R2K, Hotline and Gallup are almost converging. Perhaps they are making the same mistakes or there is a changing dynamic?

demographic proportions as in 2004 creates its own problems.

I feel that it's likely we'll see higher African-American turnout across the board, but especially in the states where Obama has the most extensive field operations. Several of those states were not targeted at all by Kerry, so we may notice a big difference.

I have no idea what to expect from Latino turnout.

...to compare each pollster's weighted and unweighted numbers?  The various pollsters' unweighted numbers should be very similar, and I would wonder what was going on if they weren't.  If the weighted numbers diverged while the unweighted numbers didn't, this would probably be due to differences in weighting, likely voter methodology, etc.

of voters will look like 2004?  

I don't think R2K is off with regard to Black/Hispanic vote this year.  I live in an area with a large Hispanic population that realizes their vote is extremely important to this election.  We have a lot of Hispanic volunteers canvassing for the campaign.  We have a miniscule Black population but about 90% of them are volunteers.  There is huge excitement in both communities.  

Here's an idea: Just toss out Rasmussen and R2K from your sample, (they're the two outliers), and average the remaining two trackers then.

Listen, we know that you don't like the kos poll.  We heard that many times from you, and I imagine that this post will not be the end of it.  

Just use the above rationale to exclude the two polls from your tracker average, and stick with it.  That way you don't have to spend so much time trying to prove to us that the Kos/R2K poll is screwed up.  Just leave it out...and balance that by leaving Rasmussen out as well.

Voila!  Problem solved.

The R2K daily track is a joke.

Optimists in the Hispanic political community talk about "more than 9 million" Hispanic voters this year nationally.  That would be no better than about 8 percent of the total IF the total is the same as in 2004 (121 million), and not more than that; if total voters exceed the 2004 number, then Hispanic vote share is less than that.

Regarding the partisan ID breakdown, the poll undercounts Dems slightly and Rethugs very heavily, the latter being the bigger problem.  Rethugs will be in the low/mid-30s, and while we WILL have a party ID advantage greater than 2004 or 2006 contrary to Jerome's belief based on his strange embrace of a single post-convention CBS poll, 9 points would be on the very optimistic end on what can be realistically expected.  I'd say Rasmussen probably is a good gauge of where party ID really stands as they were off by no more than a point or two the past couple cycles, and they peg the Dem advantage currently at 6-7 points.

Here's where the R2K daily track IS useful: the internals on groups with large sample sizes, the biggest being white voters.  I pay attention to the size of Obama's deficit there, mindful that Kerry lost the white vote by 17 points in a photo-finish election.  As long as Obama stays inside that 17-point margin, that's a useful metric to feel good.

The way I see it, it's good to have polls with different methodologies.  Research 2000 is the counter-weight to Rasmussen.  Both are useful, because Research 2000 gives us data if pro-democratic assumptions about the electorate hold up, and Rasmussen gives us data if they don't.  

Together, they give us both the upper and lower limits of the race.  And overall, it's good news for Obama, because, if things go as planned, he has a comfortable lead.  But, even if turn-out is lower than expected, it's essentially tied.  Meaning, McCain is fighting to just make a race come election time, while Obama is seeking to make it an easy victory.  

Leave it. There's 5 tracking polls now, at least one of which strongly disfavors Obama *coughbattlegroundcough*. You don't like the results of that one? Go use another one. Or better yet, just don't worry about it.

You see the pollster pegging Republican support correctly, or within about a point, while underestimating Democratic support. It happened in last year's Kentucky Governor race (final poll had it 55/40 in favor of the D, ended up 59/41). It happened in the Nevada Governor race in 2006 (final poll had it 47/41 in favor of the GOP, ended up 48/44). It happened in the Iowa Governor race in 2006 (final poll 50/45 in favor of the D, ended up 54/44). It happened in the Wisconsin Governor race in 2006 (final poll was 50/44 in favor of D, ended up 53/45). Those are just the few that I found relatively quickly.

Black vote will eaily grow by 2% or even 3%. Hispanic vote has been growing 2% every four years and accelerating - also it trends D by far this year from 60% to 70%. These two factors alone create a Kerry plus 5% which is a 2% lead for O. Add another set for Ds outpolling Rs (probably by more than 4 this year and it is probably included in the Black and Hispanic sampling) and you have  a extremely difficult R roadmap.  VA is already trending O by 6 (SUSA)- and believe- that ain't changing. Soldiers are stupid and do not want to die. The military vote will be close to 50/50.  An interesting observation by someone- the R motivation is starting to fade for several reasons and this will probaly create an insurmountable problem for Rs.  As to which poll? Rasmuseen had an easy election last time= very steady- remember he was way off in 2000- so there is a house bias; however, he did pick up the +5 to +6 O gain last week- I think RCP average has a great track record and I would stick with that. Once Obama is out the MOE (a 3+ lead in the polls) he will be out of the danger zone.        

OBAMA SURPASSED 50%

I'm literally trying to clear my head

Fifty-one percent of registered voters are backing Obama, who now holds a 5 point edge over McCain, at 46 percent. McCain and Obama were tied at 48 percent apiece in the previous CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey. Obama's advantage, while growing, is still within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Where did Obama make his gains?

"In two core McCain constituencies: Men, who now narrowly favor Obama. And seniors, who have also flipped from McCain to Obama," says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.

When including only those people most likely to vote, the results are pretty much the same: Among likely voters, Obama has a 4 point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent.

According to the internals of today's R2K poll, the sample included 389 Democrats, 280 Republicans, 331 Independents, and 100 Other/Refused, for a three-day total of 1,100 respondents.  If we remove the Other/Refused, we're left with 1,000 respondents, of whom 38.9% were Democrats, 28.0% were Republicans, and 33.1% were Independents.  How does this compare to what we know about the current electorate?  This, IMO, is the key question; is a 9-point Democratic edge consistent with other available data?

I reran the numbers with and without the Other/Refused group, and the figures were nearly identical; in fact, Obama's lead actually increases a bit when Other/Refused is taken out of the sample.

The current R2K averages shoe a 49-43 Obama lead.  Obama leads 86-11 among Democrats, 45-42 among Independents,and 46-42 among Other/Refused, and trails 88-6 among Republicans.  Note that the Independent and Other/Refused figures are nearly identical; would it make sense to combine the two groups for purposes of analysis?

All this makes it so much more amazing that R200K remains one of the most accurate pollsters.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/la bel/pollster%20ratings

Think how accurate they could be if they actually did things like Fox, Gallup, ARG, CBS, IA, PPP, LA Times...

Oh never mind, all those other shops are less accurate, scratch that.  

the problem with Judis is he's taking exit polls as a factual basis. No one knows what the real numbers were in 2004. They are in fact, no better then the latest r2k or Rasmussen poll.

But I digress. The U.S. is 13% black and over 15% latino now. If we can't break 21% shame on the Democratic party and our ground game.

In fact, while r2k is perhaps overreaching in their minority sample size, those numbers are not entirely bogus or far fetched. Latinos are more politically energized then ever and blacks have a chance to vote for an African American for the first time in their lives.

Well...
Here in Denver I have been heavily involved with the Obama campaign both with registration and GOTV efforts since June in heavy Latino areas.
We go in twos with one of us bi-lingual. The knowledge of voter eligible immigrants is higher than I expected.
The desire to vote for a candidate with darker melanin is high. The Latino turn out in Denver and Weld Counties will be of historic proportions.
This will result in not only a CO victory for Obama but a defeat for Musgrave...
Just this week, Obama open another office in Dem heavy North Denver...It is geared toward a GOTV effort. Those of you all ready involved are aware of the organization in your area. For those of you with doubts? Check it out. I can guarantee you,; you have not seen or been a part of anything like it.

It is not too late to put your voice and/or your feet on the same line as your mind.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/a ctioncenter

"Move your mind, your ass will follow" ...George Clinton

God, that sounds weird to say.

But the Hispanic numbers are frankly, fucking impossible.  

14.8% of the U.S. population is Latino, but around 25% of that is probably undocumented immigrants.  This whittles us down to 11.1%.  Then you have to factor in Latinos are more likely to also be legal immigrants than non-Latino whites or blacks, and a disproportionate number of Latinos being young, you'd be lucky if Latinos make up 10% of the eligible electorate.  

13% is just damn foolish, unless you think white Americans are going to stay home.  

that the best use of daily tracking polls is to gauge the changes in voter sentiment, nationally. And in that regard, my R2K polling has consistently picked up the same movement everyone else has. And in fact, no one else out there is providing daily splits on the approval/disapproval numbers of the candidates. That allowed us to talk about Palin's collapse before anyone else had.

That's the reason I got my own daily tracker -- so I wouldn't have to beg other pollsters for that information.

If you want to adjust the numbers 2-3 points in the other direction to "compensate", be free. That's why I made sure all data was made public, unlike everyone else that still hides the composition of their samples. And at the end of the day, other than Rasmussen, the other three tracking polls are within two points of each other.

But I find it funny that you complain about R2K being too pro-Obama, but then approvingly point to CNN's latest poll that has Obama up to 51 percent, higher than anything R2K has shown. AND, you have no clue what that CNN sample looks like. You might be equally horrified if you saw how they broke it down. Or how Rasmussen breaks it down. You're assuming they've got better samples, but you're doing so on faith.

I don't do faith very well, prefering past performance. And on that front, R2K kicked CNN's ass in the primaries. And sure, while past performance is no indicator of future results (see Zogby), it does lead me to give R2K the benefit of the doubt.

Good Analysis kos, I agree with your analysis. Nate is far more credible than Jerome as far numbers are concerned and he lists R2K as high on the credibility list.

Check it,

I think you guys are really underestimating the turnout for AA this year.  I'm guessing that as in the rest of America, AA are in the minority when it comes to blogging, but I bet not many of the MSM or white people in general listen to Urban radio.  People like Tom Joiner, Michael Baisden, Steve Harvey, to name a few, who are nationally syndicated urban radio personalities.
I'm telling you, ya'll should check these shows out one day.  All they talk about daily seems to be this election, and Barack Obama.  They are on point when it comes to registration, voter suppression, and GOTV.  

Not only that, there are AA church groups, fellowships, greek organizations, NAACP who are all doing all that they can to GOTV, and help elect Barack Obama.  Trust me when I tell you that this election cycle, you won't have to worry about the turnout of AA voters.  It's the voter suppression tactics that will be attempted that will need to be watched out for.  And even on that subject, Urban Radio host daily talk to their listeners about voter registration and voter purges.  

There are a lot of Urban Radio stations, they may not individually have the numbers that Rush or Hannity have, but as a whole, they reach a lot of young people, AA, other "urban voters".  

Don't underestimate AA voters this year, you will be in for a surprise.  This won't be another "why didn't AA turnout" type of election.  This is our time, this is our moment.