CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

CNN over the weekend:

Fifty-one percent of registered voters are backing Obama, who now holds a 5 point edge over McCain, at 46 percent. McCain and Obama were tied at 48 percent apiece in the previous CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey. Obama's advantage, while growing, is still within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Where did Obama make his gains?

"In two core McCain constituencies: Men, who now narrowly favor Obama. And seniors, who have also flipped from McCain to Obama," says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.

When including only those people most likely to vote, the results are pretty much the same: Among likely voters, Obama has a 4 point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent.

...The poll also expands to include third party candidates. When included in the results, Obama has the backing of 48 percent of likely voters, three points ahead of McCain at 45 percent. Independent Ralph Nader has the support of 4 percent of those polled, with Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney each at one percent.

Nader pulling 4% and McKinney polling 1% won't pan out. The last CNN poll showed a 48-48 tie on the 7th of the month. Moving above 50% is big.

Update [2008-9-22 17:40:47 by Todd Beeton]:As we saw in the PPP North Carolina poll, here too anxiety over the economy is fueling Obama's rise nationally. But interestingly, CNN's results indicate that it may not be due to the generic advantage Democrats have on the issue of the economy alone, but rather people have largely made the connection -- one that Obama and Biden have been hitting upon on the stump but that the media has largely ignored -- that Republicans are to blame for the crisis we are in.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll suggests that by a 2-to-1 margin, Americans blame Republicans over Democrats for the financial crisis that has swept across the country the past few weeks — one factor that may have contributed to an apparent increase in Barack Obama’s edge over John McCain in the race for the White House.

In the new survey, released Monday afternoon, 47 percent of registered voters questioned say Republicans are more responsible for the problems currently facing financial institutions and the stock market, with 24 percent saying Democrats are more responsible. One in five of those polled blame both parties equally, and 8 percent say neither party is to blame.

That's pretty remarkable. In addition, Obama now has a 10% advantage over McCain on who would better handle the economy.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)

Comments

56 Comments

Jerome the brillant and never wrong

is here to tell us all how to think

Obama is doomed.

Now back to your regular, concern troll approved message.

Breaking 50% is a bad thing in the universe of Jerome...

by Sanguine Giant 2008-09-22 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome the brillant and never wrong

That was not called for.

You might not agree with Jerome but there are better ways to express your disagreement than mocking him.

by Jon Niola 2008-09-22 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome the brillant and never wrong

But it IS fun to watch the game.

by vcalzone 2008-09-22 12:49PM | 0 recs
I get tired of the same naysayers

predicting doom for a candidate, Jerome has consistantly voiced a refrain of Obama being doomed, since he has been wrong in the past a multitude of times (sometimes so wrong it was comical...) I thought that his opinion should be regarded in the frame of his success this cycle.

Also Barr/Nader/McKinney have a very reasonable chance to get over 6% nationally.  There are a lot of people who dislike both McCain and Obama and Barr/Baldwin is the way they would go.

by Sanguine Giant 2008-09-22 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: I get tired of the same naysayers

Is Alec Baldwin running with Bob Barr? I might have to rethink my support for Obama. Obama can't do nearly as good a Redd Foxx impression.

by vcalzone 2008-09-22 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: I get tired of the same naysayers

by vcalzone 2008-09-22 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: I get tired of the same naysayers

OMG!  Listen here first.

by username 2008-09-22 12:57PM | 0 recs
Step off.

Jerome has almost no credibility after the primaries, but this post contains no "Our Girl" whining, so you need to step off.

by username 2008-09-22 12:55PM | 0 recs
If he were to use valid reasoning to

explain why he is stating this I would, but to say third party vote will be under 5% is flawed based on the favorability of both candidates.

Nader will get his chunk of people (I see more Nader canvassers than McCain).

Bob Barr will get a decent chunk as well (from the anti-government types turned off by Sarah Palin in the "Sagebrush areas" (this signals to them that McCain is not a small government type).

Also as far as plausibility is it unlikely that there wouldn't be movement towards Obama due to the diaster that is the American economy (especially due to the current situation on Wall Street concerning Senior Citizens who in a lot of cases are extremely wrapped up in their retirement investments).

Bring something to the net (a tennis analogy) and you get respect...  send a weak return and it will get spiked.

by Sanguine Giant 2008-09-22 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: If he were to use valid reasoning to

Nader will do as bad or worse than he did in 2004. But Bob Barr will likely do a little bit better than you think. (I can't imagine McKinney getting anything more than .25 to .5%)

by JDF 2008-09-22 02:53PM | 0 recs
How is this a wet blanket?

He's not saying that Nader and McKinney's votes are taken away from either candidate, just saying (and he's probably right, based on recent experience) that they won't draw as much...whether you agree with it or not, I don't see how it's anti-Obama or negative to anyone but Nader and McKinney. Chances are, their inflated numbers dull an even greater Obama lead.

by thurst 2008-09-22 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome the brillant and never wrong

You know what, I rarely agree with Jerome and have actually been warned for voicing my displeasure with his commentary a little too loudly. That being said, your comment is disgusting, and makes no sense. Don't be a jerkoff.

by JDF 2008-09-22 02:51PM | 0 recs
But...but...

With all due respect, Jerome didn't DO anything here, but present positive news.  Let's not get silly.

by thurst 2008-09-22 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

but but but...i thought Sarah Palin was the game changer certain to bust things wide open for McCain???

Where's my Palinmania??????

by gecollin 2008-09-22 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

She is a game changer to a certain degree...could you imagine where this race would be if Pawlenty was the VP?

I think this would actually be much closer right now Lieberman was his running mate...the base probably would have held their holy noses and voted for him anyways.

by neko608 2008-09-22 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

If Lieberman was his running mate it would be all over... We'd win in a landslide... Lieberman would underdraw even Mccain at "rallies" (they'd have to be called get togethers 'cos no one would show up...)

Did you notice that McCain's numbers in the tracking poll actually FELL after Lieberman gave his weak, weak, "I'm a traitorous sleazeball" speech at the RNC?

The base wouldn't have held at all... we'd probably win both Dakotas...

by LordMike 2008-09-22 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

She was a game changer. She locked in that evangelical base that McCain was struggling with.

But the fact that he had to take steps to lock in a base that is normally a sure thing is a whole other discussion :)

by Jon Niola 2008-09-22 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

"And seniors, who have also flipped from McCain to Obama," says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider."

Just keep saying "Privatize Social Security" ever hour on the hour, that group will come up to the Democrats....

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-22 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

I should have a clock built that says it on the hour.

by iohs2008 2008-09-22 01:12PM | 0 recs
BOOYAH!

Election is over.

I guess I don't get to go campaigning in Las Vegas...

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-09-22 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: BOOYAH!

Let's not get ahead of ourselves

by kbal 2008-09-22 12:47PM | 0 recs
Re: BOOYAH!

Agreed.

This group was just about slitting their wrists at the height of "the Palin effect" a few weeks ago.

It's a dog fight everyday from here on out, there are swings left to go IMHO.

I stick with Rachel Maddow: A HUGE turnout, we do best.

I hope all that money I have been sending to Axelrod has been seeding one hell of a GOTV show in Nov.

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-22 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

This is good news. I think this election will remain fairly close, but I think most of the discrimination is already factored into these numbers. Ohio still looks too tight for comfort, but I feel good about PA, MI, NM, IA, CO, and VA. Obama might even win FL with the right strategy.

by Lolis 2008-09-22 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

Can we stop with the gloom and please note that on a weekend poll, Obama got over 50 points? That seems fairly unprecedented. McCain will have to rely on people just forgetting everything they know about him, and on the media being too scared to move. They will fail on both counts, ultimately, but that's their strategy. Just look at the ease with which Ben Smith decimates Schmidt and Davis's "conference call" (aka the silliest threat ever).

by vcalzone 2008-09-22 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

this is nice and all, but McCain will win the first debate (expectactions game are a bitch)

and he will make gains so I hope no one flips out next week if McCain is ahead. once again my debate prediction

Debate 1: McCain, McCain makes poll gains
VP Debate: Biden, Obama makes poll gains
Debate 2: McCain, McCain makes poll gains
Debate 3: Obama, Obama will lead and keep his lead.

why do I believe this? the expectations game, its Foreign Policy, now if Obama wins it, I think he seals the election, and as such the media would have nothing to talk about, thus look for them to keep this close and give it to McCain.

no way Palin beats Biden I dont care what people think, so they will give McCain debate 2 to keep this close or once again they have nothing to talk about,

the 3rd debate is Economy, look for Obama to win that one, he will spend between now and that debate setting up and owning this issue, he will ride that in to a win on Nov 4.

thats my prediction.

(just had to have it somewhere so that when I am right I can point it out and say told ya so)

by TruthMatters 2008-09-22 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

Also important? Third debate is seated. McCain never comes across well. He has to seal it before that point to win.

by vcalzone 2008-09-22 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

I thought the debate topics had been switched; economic issues is this week.

by KTinOhio 2008-09-22 01:02PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

If it is the economy this week things could get really interesting. I am interested in seeing how Obama responds to McCain lying through his teeth while they are in the same room. I am also interested in seeing how he responds when McCain tries to talk over him a time or two.

If Obama handles these two things well look for a Debate about the economy to move us out into the lead quite a bit. The problem is if the foreign policy debate is last then the media is going to skewer Obama BADLY right before E-day.
Its going to be interesting...

by JDF 2008-09-22 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

Obama camp is downplaying the expectations on the first debate, he'll show people know well versed he is on foreign policy.  Don't be surprised if he brings up McCain's forced stance on Spain.  Barack has a really good shot at this one.

by neko608 2008-09-22 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

What makes you think McCain will do so wonderfully with foreign policy?  I hate to point out the obvious, but lets jog your memory with not knowing Iraq borders Afghanistan, pretty much not knowing Spain is in Europe (not latin america), and the wonderful pick of a VP choice who has foreign policy experience because she went out of country once and can see Russia from her home state and shares a border with a foreign country.

So, while "conventional wisdom" says McCain has an perceived edge on foreign policy, let's not forget that McCain has been gaffing a lot lately and won't have Liberman to whisper corrections in his ear.

Obama may not be the best debater, but the one thing I give HRC credit for is making him a much better debater than he was.  That being said, if he stays composed, and more importantly needles McCain on, game-set-match.

by tlhwraith 2008-09-22 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

what part of "the media will give the win to McCain to keep this a horse race" didn't get through?

it doesn't matter what actually happens, only how its reported, and I think the media has a vested interest in keeping this race close. so they will be more likely then not to give a win to McCain because as Obama is owning the economy if McCain loses Foreign policy this week.

what chance does he have of winning? and what reason is there to watch non stop news from Sep. 27th - Nov 3rd?

the the whole point of calling it now. I say that unless McCain absolutely drops the ball he will win, because the media needs him to win

by TruthMatters 2008-09-22 02:07PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

Wow.  If Obama moves pretty much any white men and lod voters into his camp it's not just over, it's a landslide for Obama.

by scytherius 2008-09-22 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome, You might as well be a Republican hack

lol pretty sure Jerome has enough to quote a CNN poll.

by TruthMatters 2008-09-22 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

Where is Jerome and what have you done with him?

btw, I recall Nader polling around 3% in 2004.  The guy got 0.4%, just barely ahead of Badnarik.  (Who? you ask.  Exactly.)

by Skaje 2008-09-22 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

It won't pan out. I'll be shocked to see 3rd party voting above 1.5% in total.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-22 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

2% goes to Kodos!!

Kneel humans!

by lockewasright 2008-09-22 02:04PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

It's Jerome's evil twin, Jerrome....

Seperated at birth, reunited by "the agency" one is an ordinarly blog owner, the other, a super soldier built in a genetics research lab...

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-22 01:18PM | 0 recs
Obama just went

on the Social Security offensive, too.

I think next week, we're going to start to see some real good news coming out of Florida.

by zonk 2008-09-22 01:12PM | 0 recs
by gecollin 2008-09-22 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh NO! Palin's gonna deliver VA to McCain sez

They should have consulted their own polling conducted in partnership with ABC before publishing that article.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/22/ 172245/941/353/606790

by lockewasright 2008-09-22 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh NO! Palin's gonna deliver VA to McCain sez

WaPo has had problems, in the past, finding agreement between their editorial and news departments.

by the mystical vortexes of sedona 2008-09-22 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh NO! Palin's gonna deliver VA to McCain sez

Embarrassing really.

by lockewasright 2008-09-22 02:06PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

Now we're cooking with gas!

by Bush Bites 2008-09-22 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

ABC/WAPO corroborates SUSA poll in Virginia!!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/22/ 172245/941/353/606790

Kerry states + Iowa (ours for sure)+ Virginia = President Obama

Time for me to do the happy dance!

by lockewasright 2008-09-22 01:51PM | 0 recs
Do it in 6 weeks

There are a few spins of the news cycle to go.  

by JJE 2008-09-22 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Do it in 6 weeks

Agreed.  Still, the good guys are in one really strong position and the Incontinent/Incompetent ticket needs to sweep pretty much every battle ground.

by lockewasright 2008-09-22 01:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Do it in 6 weeks

Would that be stress incontinence or urge incontinence?  haha

by neko608 2008-09-22 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

"In the new survey, released Monday afternoon, 47 percent of registered voters questioned say Republicans are more responsible for the problems currently facing financial institutions and the stock market, with 24 percent saying Democrats are more responsible. One in five of those polled blame both parties equally, and 8 percent say neither party is to blame."

And, one individual polled, a Mr. P. Gramm of Texas, commented

"Financial problems? What financial problems? Dag-nab-it, suck it up, you bunch'a whiners!"

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-22 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

Don't get too excited...  The bailout is going to be hugely unpopular.. Rasmussen shows only 28% support... and the blame will be put on the Democratic congress for passing it....

It's not over, yet!

by LordMike 2008-09-22 02:06PM | 0 recs
Worried about NH

I am abit woorried about NH. One of the things that people forget is that Gore would have been President if he had won NH. NH is one of the states in which ``taxes'' play a role and usually account for 1-2% swing. McCain has histoprically done well in NH. I hope Obama does not overlook NH.

by ann0nymous 2008-09-22 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Worried about NH

You're right, of course. There has to be some leftover sympathy for Hillary, which isn't a bad thing in itself, but which could cause a few to change over or stay home without her help.

Biden should go in first, then Hillary and Bill. Barack should go in last once they've been tenderized a bit. I think the Dems and Independents will come home.

by Spiffarino 2008-09-22 06:21PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

Lock and Load.

by Bush Bites 2008-09-22 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47
Raising Kaine reports that an ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama up 51%>43% in VIRGINIA!
Internals are consistent with a SurveyUSA poll showing Obama up 51%>45%.
by jlmccreery 2008-09-22 04:36PM | 0 recs
STOP Palin from making progress - poll

THIS IS EASY AND IMPORTANT!!
Polling is very important in elections!

Please take the time to do this:

Here's the link:   http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.ht ml

by nicknuk 2008-09-22 04:58PM | 0 recs
Pollster Underestimating AA Voter Turnout This Yea

I posted this in the other poll thread, but it fits here to:

Check it,

I think you guys are really underestimating the turnout for AA this year.  I'm guessing that as in the rest of America, AA are in the minority when it comes to blogging, but I bet not many of the MSM or white people in general listen to Urban radio.  People like Tom Joiner, Michael Baisden, Steve Harvey, to name a few, who are nationally syndicated urban radio personalities.
I'm telling you, ya'll should check these shows out one day.  All they talk about daily seems to be this election, and Barack Obama.  They are on point when it comes to registration, voter suppression, and GOTV.  

Not only that, there are AA church groups, fellowships, greek organizations, NAACP who are all doing all that they can to GOTV, and help elect Barack Obama.  Trust me when I tell you that this election cycle, you won't have to worry about the turnout of AA voters.  It's the voter suppression tactics that will be attempted that will need to be watched out for.  And even on that subject, Urban Radio host daily talk to their listeners about voter registration and voter purges.  

There are a lot of Urban Radio stations, they may not individually have the numbers that Rush or Hannity have, but as a whole, they reach a lot of young people, AA, other "urban voters".  

Don't underestimate AA voters this year, you will be in for a surprise.  This won't be another "why didn't AA turnout" type of election.  This is our time, this is our moment.

by lamh3176 2008-09-22 04:58PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN poll: Obama 51, McCain 47

This is excellent news. Any poll that puts Obama over 50 is good, but his consistent polling ahead of the GOP in virtually every poll makes this one seem even better.

Great analysis, BTW.

by Spiffarino 2008-09-22 06:16PM | 0 recs

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