Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits 50 Percent in Two Polls

by Jonathan Singer, Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 09:54:42 AM EDT

Here are today's numbers:

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	45	44
Gallup	50	44
Rasmussen Reports	48	47
Research 2000/dKos	50	42


Average:	48.25	44.25

Barack Obama continues to move up in the daily tracking polls while John McCain's numbers fizzle below 45 percent, with Obama hitting an all-time high in the R2K tracker and tying his all-time high in the Gallup tracker (which he previously hit only once right in the wake of the Democratic National Convention). This also marks the first time that all four tracking polls have simultaneously shown Obama leading, and Obama's 4 percentage point overall lead is the largest lead he has enjoyed across the four polls since they have been watching the race. In short, Democrats can't bee too unhappy with either the current spread or the current trajectory of these numbers.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

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What is Gallup's voting

ID spread? The thing to watch for in Rasmsussen's polling is Monday; Scottie R. claims that Obama had a big day of polling Thursday evening in his analysis of the South Carolina poll (McCain leading by six).

The Diageo/Hotline poll should probably be a lot more credible if it polled somewhere around 500-600 a night, rather than the 300 people a night. It's far too susceptible to massive swings but their ID between dems and pubs doesn't seem off.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-20 10:03AM | 0 recs

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It's good but

Of course it is still a state to state thing. VA, OH and CO could not be closer. Being from TN and experiencing the Bradley effect in 2006 with Harold Ford I am worried about Obama not being ahead by 2-3 points in any state and winning it.

I hope I am wrong, but McCain gets more and more senile as this contest continues.

by Monkei 2008-09-20 10:40AM | 0 recs

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no Bradley Effect with Ford, he outperformed the

polls. The Mason Dixon outlier of having him 12 points down pulled down the overall avg, but a 3 point loss was not less than polls predicted.

by Davidsfr 2008-09-20 11:34AM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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Re: It's good but

Yea, its bizzare, seeing bloggers claim there isn't a Bradley effect. Peter Brodnitz polled both the Ford and the Webb race, and found they were matched up nearly exact at the end, and look at the result, with only one conclusion.

Outside the South, it has to be a state by state thing, with PA, MI and NH being three obvious ones to watch.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 11:38AM | 0 recs

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NH?

This race may just be one gigantic gender race; we may end up seeing the biggest gender differential of the entire country in this state (a thirty-point differential is possible).

Having Shaheen down ticket probably helps Obama ensure a healthy turnout among women and take the state a little easier than imagined.

Jerome, which one between PA and MI will be more difficult for Obama to hold? I'm in the minority in my belief that PA will be more difficult. McCain is probably the best pub they could field for PA while Obama is not the dem you would probably want in a battle in PA (in contrast to VA, WI, and CO). McCain was weak among liberal pubs in the Michigan primary, the only state where he didn't destroy Romney and his opponents among this demo.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-20 11:48AM | 0 recs

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Re: NH?

The McCain camp put their best eggs in MO, MI, OH, and PA (where they dumped their extra cash).

Yes, I agree with you on PA being more difficult than MI for Obama. The underlying demographics are problematic. Race is a small issue compared with the higher rate of older voters in the state. There was a vote on it among bloggers, as to which state was the linchpin battleground, and I was in the minority voting PA (the corportate bloggers all voted for CO). I'm not sure how valid it is, but there has also been some under-the-radar negative things about Biden and Catholics going on.

I got a slew of tickets to the 'Almost Grateful Dead' show on the 13th at Penn St :)

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 11:57AM | 0 recs

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Re: NH?

Define corporate bloggers please.

by MNPundit 2008-09-20 12:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: NH?

Mainstream traditional ones.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 01:24PM | 0 recs

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It's Obama's performance

in the Philly suburbs that are the source of my consternation for me; McCain and Obama are probably the best two that either party had to send into the suburbs but that was from the case for Obama in PA. Cost's analysis is pretty good regarding PA. Perhaps Palin will scare off all the suburban folks around Philly but not too many legitimate pollsters have conducted much PA polling recently.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-20 01:00PM | 0 recs

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I know that

PA is all on Biden, there's no question about that. Think Biden will be able to get us to 60% in Lackawanna County?

I think it's an open question as to whether McCain/Palin can improve on the improvements that Bush made in the Pitt metro area in 2004. This region may be the one to watch on November 4th.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-20 01:42PM | 0 recs

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Re: It's good but

There are solid mathematical reasons that show there is no Bradley effect:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/o n-race-based-voting.html

Regardless of what the conventional wisdom is, the math tells us the whole story.

by barath 2008-09-20 12:56PM | 0 recs

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Re: It's good but

Has he asked Harold Ford?

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 01:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: It's good but

You mean the same Harold Ford who outperformed the final polls in the race?

http://www.pollster.com/polls/tn/06-tn-s en.php

by Angry White Democrat 2008-09-20 01:31PM | 0 recs

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Re: Not to agree with Jerome

But that's not evidence of a Bradley effect. That's just evidence that the state of the race shifted.

The final polls of the race undercounted Ford's support. If there were a Bradley effect, we would have seen the opposite.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-09-20 02:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: It's good but

As posted above, talk with Pete Brodnitz, who was the pollster for Ford and Webb. Or talk with Ford himself.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 07:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: It's good but

Or we can just look at the empirical data we have. Much simpler. No Bradley effect.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-09-20 11:22PM | 0 recs

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Re: It's good but

Um, Jerome, there was no Bradly effect in the Tennessee Senate race in 2006. In fact, Ford slightly outperformed the final polls:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/tn/06-tn-s en.php

by Angry White Democrat 2008-09-20 01:27PM | 0 recs

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Not really

The composite was either +4 Corker (the last five polls of the race, or +5 Corker, if you looked at the last 10. That's a fair way to look at the race.

Ford outperformed those polls, losing by three points.

There was no Bradley effect in that race. I actually predicted Corker would win by 8 points, taking that +4 Corker lead and applying another 4 points as a Bradley effect. It was the only Senate race I significantly missed that night.

by kos 2008-09-20 03:53PM | 0 recs

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Re: It's good but

VA is much more liberal than TN.

oBAMA CAN WIN VA BUT NOT COME CLOSE IN TN

by BDM 2008-09-20 05:43PM | 0 recs

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Re: What is Gallup's voting

Gallup likes their swings, but they should be more transparent. All we have to go by is the weekly:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108049/Candid ate-Support-Political-Party-Ideology.asp x

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 11:35AM | 0 recs

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Tracking Poll Update:

Yea I can see it now The TM yaking heads all sceaming about Obama's amazing surge in the polls! Yea right! What will really happen is they will some how figure out a way to say this is "Good for McInsain". Oh! I've got it. How about this one "HAS OBAMA PEAKED TOO SOON?" "This may be GOOD for.........."

by eddieb 2008-09-20 10:04AM | 0 recs

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They're not even that subtle

One of the lead stories on Google News (from where else, the ap) has the lede: "Obama hopes to win back momentum at debates" (or something similarly implying that mccain was surging)

Buuuut, this is interesting, when I looked back to get the right phrasing and a link, it was gone with a placeholder title...

But still, if you read the google links on that page, you would think that Obama was struggling. This may be the ultimate proof we have to keep writing the press when they pull stuff like this (outright lies).

by thurst 2008-09-20 10:20AM | 0 recs

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Ah, no, there it is...

It's just further up in the headlines:

Obama Looks To Regain Momentum At The Debates

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h8jud deKQlPY-6KakIsf1iAKiMWwD93AH3GG0

What the crap??!

Oddly enough, there are no comments nor any address to which to write...funny how that happens!

Well, I'm gonna see what I can find about this Charles Babington...sick of this silliness.

by thurst 2008-09-20 10:26AM | 0 recs

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Ok

I feel a bit silly as I guess he's been outed as a shill before (second thing i found about him was olbermann calling this idiot out)...

Should have done more research before writing, but just had to vent. Last week, I was talking with my (fellow) liberal uncle as we listened to the Buffalo Bills play (and win...yay), who's maxxed out to Obama, as Palin's numbers were just beginning to fade and it was already clearly beginning to shift back to at least tied and he was adamant that we were in dire trouble b/c the talking heads said so. He practically got angry, as if I was just being foolishly positive, when I said we weren't done, that everybody didn't love Palin, that Obama was putting out ads in swing states, etc.

(Obviously) we shouldn't be fighting this as well.

by thurst 2008-09-20 10:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: Ah, no, there it is...

Babington was the idiot AP writer who wrote that Obama's acceptance speech lacked specifics.

by newms 2008-09-20 10:37AM | 0 recs

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Thanks

I've written Mr. Olbermann...figure he has some history of taking this guy on.

by thurst 2008-09-20 12:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits 50 Percent in

I had the honor today of participating in the Zogby Interactive "poll."

Among the questions pertinent to our nations future...

"How often do you shop at Wal-Mart?"

"Are you a NASCAR fan?"

"How often do you visit the website DailyKos.com?

by neko608 2008-09-20 10:04AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

"In short, Democrats can't bee too unhappy with either the current spread or the current trajectory of these numbers. "

Cue the wet blanket post in 3...2...1...

by Beomoose 2008-09-20 10:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits 50 Percent in

Hit him with this next...

by nextgen 2008-09-20 10:18AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits 50 Percent in

created by a concerned citizen? That video is perfect. Get that in the hands of a 527.

by neko608 2008-09-20 10:37AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits 50 Percent in

The most powerful part is the end.

"I did everything I could to get him elected"

I love that part

by nextgen 2008-09-20 10:48AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits 50 Percent in

Damn that's an effective ad.

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-20 02:20PM | 0 recs

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Wow

That's an independent producer's video? Damn good job.

by JD Lasica 2008-09-20 11:03PM | 0 recs

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Gilmore is probably helping us out

in Virginia; in his debate with Warner the other night, Gilmore tried to attack Warner by using his support for Obama against him. Warner responded that he was "proud to support Obama." Anything that gets more people to buy into the idea that a vote for Warner is a vote for Obama can only be a good thing in Virginia.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-20 10:31AM | 0 recs

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Re: Gilmore is probably helping us out

I wonder if Warner could convince Jerome too? ;)

by neko608 2008-09-20 10:36AM | 0 recs

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You guys take it too hard

on Jerome, especially the conspiracy theorists about how he's hoping for a loss so Warner can run in 2012.

Jerome is pessimistic because he believes the ID advantage will be the same this year as in 2004. I don't know why he feels that way but I'm in agreement that it won't be the 9-10 point ID advantage in the Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll.

Rasmussen, Diageo/Hotline, and Battleground seem to be in the middle and they have at from a 5-6 % advantage from us.

Jay Cost and Larry Sabato have some good stuff out about Virginia as a swing state. Sabato is pessimistic in the same way as Jerome is but I think he may be predisposed to believe Virginia is a steep uphill climb because of his location in Charlottesville, rather than Northern Va. My dispostion towards VA is a lot more favorable perhaps because I spent a couple summers in one of the greatest areas in America, the DC metro area. Obama is the best dem we could have nominated for Virginia (though McCain is probably the strongest pub they could have put up for VA), so it'll be a good battle on November 4th.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-20 10:40AM | 0 recs

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Re: You guys take it too hard

What about Gore?

I'm not pessimistic, I just don't believe in projecting something that has no basis in past results. I rip off a winger:

In 2006, the National Exit Poll showed that 38% of voters considered themselves Democrats, 36% considered themselves Republicans, and 26% considered themselves Independent or supporting another party.

In 2004, the National Exit Poll showed that 37% of voters considered themselves Democrats, 37% considered themselves Republicans, and 26% considered themselves Independent or supporting another party.

In 2002, the National Exit Poll showed that 39% of voters considered themselves Democrats, 38% considered themselves Republicans, and 23% considered themselves Independent or supporting another party.

In 2000, the National Exit Poll showed that 39% of voters considered themselves Democrats, 35% considered themselves Republicans, and 27% considered themselves Independent or supporting another party.

In 1998, the National Exit Poll showed that 39% of voters considered themselves Democrats, 33% considered themselves Republicans, and 28% considered themselves Independent or supporting another party.

Those numbers look rather consistent to me, suggesting we could take an average of the last ten years of elections and get a practical idea of what to expect. Here's how that shaped up:

Democrats: From 37 to 39 percent, average over the last ten years is 38.4%
Republicans: From 35 to 38 percent, average over the last ten years is 35.8%
Independents: From 23 to 28 percent, average over the last ten years is 26.0%

Markos may be entirely correct to project that the Democratic ID jumps 9-10% this year over 2004, that 60+ voters don't vote as much as they did in 2004, and that the black/latino percent of the voters jumps from 19% to 26% of the electorate.

Anyone call pull unrealistic projections out of a hat.

Gallup doesn't publish their internals, which makes them worth next to nothing (except weekly), Hotline, Rasmussen, and Battleground are the valid ones (DailyKos could be valid too if weighted properly).

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 11:48AM | 0 recs

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Re: You guys take it too hard

I would think that the ID results will split the difference between 2004 and Markos' rosy prediction. Please remember that 2004 had record evangelical turnout. Even with Palin on the ticket, it won't reach that sort of high. A 10 to 16 percent decrease in Republican turnout will lead to 30.1-32.3% Republican turnout. Remember that Bush motivated Evangelicals who were completely outside the system.

Is Markos' prediction a little rosy? Sure, but 2004 was a high water mark for the Republican coalition. When McCain starts pushing back against Palin to make sure everyone knows he's in charge, evangelical approval will decrease. Also, his strategy of appealing to self-identified Repubs on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays while appealing to independents on Tuesdays Thursdays and Saturdays will eventually take a toll.

by AZphilosopher 2008-09-20 12:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: You guys take it too hard

Nice signature! :-)

by xodus1914 2008-09-20 05:39PM | 0 recs

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We'll have to ignore history

with this election; it's pretty unprecedented. Putting aside this race and gender noise, Obama is the favorite to win this election despite the fact that he will probably be the first dem to win an election without winning one of the following states: MO, WV, TN, AR, and KY.

We can probably toss-out any argument that depends on previous elections (e.g. people don't vote for or against the VP, people will only pay attention to the election until the debates, what happened in the primaries is irrelevant, etc.). The map is a different one, for better or worse.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-20 12:56PM | 0 recs

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Re: You guys take it too hard

My opinion on the governing is that whomever wins in '08 is going to be royally left holding the bag, and blamed it.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 11:49AM | 0 recs

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Re: You guys take it too hard

You think people will so quickly forget what a disaster the Bush Presidency has been?

by JDF 2008-09-20 12:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: You guys take it too hard

I'll try and get Ben from NLS to make a post on VA, he's smarter than the real LS about how to predict the state :)

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 12:00PM | 0 recs

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My new theory of the day

is that McCain/Palin is strongest in the swing states with the highest percentage of evangelicals or the lowest number of evangelicals but that it the ticket should struggle in those swing states with the medium level of evalengicals (kind of similar to the Obama theory during the primaries about him performing well in states with a lot of black people or no black people).

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-20 12:26PM | 0 recs

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Re: My new theory of the day

Ok, I can roll with that...

by xodus1914 2008-09-20 05:40PM | 0 recs

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Who cares about the polls?!!?!?

Keep your eyes off the score.
Keep donating when you can
Keep canvassing

Volunteer. Organize. Vote and Convince others to vote with you.

It aint over yet.

(did I post this twice? if so sorry)

by gil44 2008-09-20 10:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits 50 Percent in

Good polls = ignore them.

Bad polls = I told you so! The sky is falling!

Meh.

It's like Groundhog Day in the comments section on all the frontpage poll diaries.

by spacemanspiff 2008-09-20 12:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update:

oh and this is on Saturday... hasn't the big O polled worse on the weekends? Not saying it will happen but imagine a 55% in the daily tracking by Tuesday.

by notedgeways 2008-09-20 01:24PM | 0 recs

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NC now tied 46-46

according to PPP.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/ 2008/09/economy-drives-nc-race-into-tie. html

The list of states in which McCain is going to have to defend seriously seems to be growing daily.

For a while after the RNC it looked as if it might just be CO and VA, but now it's at a minimum CO, VA, NV, FL, OH, IN, NC (I am counting IA and NM as likely Dem at this stage).

Looks as if McCain will need to score a "win" in the first debate next Friday in order to get back in it. In my view this is probably his best and perhaps his final chance to shift the flow back in his favour. It should be to his advantage that it's about foreign policy - this is supposed to be his strong suit, and even if he doesn't perform brilliantly the mere fact that a lot of people will be watching and may start thinking a bit more about foreign policy issues and a bit less about the economy might be expected to give the Republicans a small boost. If Obama comes through the first debate unscathed he has a great chance of winning the election.

by al1 2008-09-20 05:48PM | 0 recs

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Friday's debate

Obama needs to tie the $10 billion a month we're spending in Iraq to the meltdown on Wall Street and the economy. And he needs to underscore the fact that he's in alignment with the Iraqi government's position, and McCain isn't.

by JD Lasica 2008-09-20 11:09PM | 0 recs