Big Ten Poll

This looks like it'll be a good set of polls worth diving into, with plenty of research and details, but it also looks like its not going to tell us anything other than the race is very close in the midwest.

The top line looks like:

         Iowa   Minn.  Wisc.  Mich.  Ohio   Ind.  Penn.   Illinois 
Obama    45     47     45     48     46     43    45      53
McCain   45     45     44     44     45     47    45      37
Charles Franklin has some top-line analysis on the Big Ten Poll website. The MOE is +/- 4% and was taken Sept 14-17, and "included a nationally representative sample of 1,114 respondents, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a 1-point margin over McCain." So close, except for Illinois. The other not as close states are Indiana (McCain) and Michigan (Obama), the states of Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to be the ones where McCain-Palin have gained the most traction since the conventions. This Iowa finding is contrary to a lot of other polls out there, and the Pennsylvania poll shows a tie as well.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)



Re: Big Ten Poll

Those polls seem reasonable.  The only two I would question is Iowa and Pennsylvania.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-09-18 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

These kinda look like Big Ten Baskeball scores.. low scoring defensive affairs.  Well maybe that's just Illinois.

by Why Not 2008-09-18 02:11PM | 0 recs
only two I would question are Iowa and Pennsylvani

They are outliers compared with other polling done in those two states.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-09-18 12:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

The IA poll suggests McCain oversampling or leftover bounce, because while IA may have tightened last week it's still Obama's. If that's a consistent oversample, Obama's tied or up everywhere but Indy, which is pretty close. If not, Obama's tied or up everywhere but Indy, which is in reach. Either way, not good news for McCain.

by Beomoose 2008-09-18 12:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

I'd take Ann Selzer over any other pollster when it comes to Iowa -- she's the only one who nailed the caucuses -- and she has the race at 52/40 in favor of Obama.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-09-18 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Yeah, I don't think I trust a poll that shows Iowa and Pennsylvania tied but Obama leading in Michigan and Ohio.  Something is funny about this one.

by alvernon 2008-09-18 12:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

I hope Selzer does another poll on Iowa so that we know what is really going on there.  Also, I don't buy old man McBush bein tied in PA.  

by Spanky 2008-09-18 12:27PM | 0 recs
It's all about the ground game!

by puma 2008-09-18 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Look, let's deal with the important issue here.  Penn State is not a real Big Ten member.

by Steve M 2008-09-18 12:30PM | 0 recs
so true!

I don't believe that Iowa result for a second. A well-connected Republican told me a few weeks ago that he doesn't know any Iowa Republicans who expect McCain to have a chance here.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-18 05:20PM | 0 recs
i get the big ten thing, but...

...pennsylvania is not a midwestern state.

I have heard the washington and new york news people repeatedly talk about pennsylvania being in the midwest.

For heaven's sake, not only was Pennsylvania a colony, it was where the continental congress met, and contained the nation's capitol.  No body who lives in the midwest would ever consider anyone who lives in pennsylvania to be midwesterners.

I am not debating or degrading the content of the post, but there needs to be some integrity regarding the use of historical and geographical terminology.

by d 2008-09-18 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: i get the big ten thing, but...

Central and Western PA have a lot more in common with the midwest culturally and demographically than they do with Philly and the rest of the east coast. I think that is why you see people refer to PA as the midwest.

by wasder 2008-09-18 12:35PM | 0 recs
that may explain it...

...but no one in the midwest considers any part of pennsylvania to be a part of the midwest.  And I seriously doubt that any one in Pennsylvania thinks they live in a midwestern state.  There is no confusion amongst the people who actually live in these places.

It is just plain sloppy writing and journalism.

by d 2008-09-18 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: that may explain it...

I don't know about your statement that nobody who lives there considers themselves from the midwest. I am speaking anecdotally here but I feel like the people in Pittsburgh feel they are living in a city that has more in common with Cleveland than Philly. They use lots of midwesterny words like "pop" and certainly the accent is more midwestern than eastern. I don't think that Pennsylvanians as a whole would say they live in a midwestern state but the people in western PA might feel like they live in the midwest more than they feel like they are part of the northeast for instance.

by wasder 2008-09-18 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: that may explain it...

I feel the same way about western NY by the way. Buffalo feels like a midwestern city to me. Midwestern has as much to do with the great lakes as anything else and western PA and western NY border the Great Lakes.

by wasder 2008-09-18 01:38PM | 0 recs
yes...I get it.

I do understand that people can live in one place and actually be from somewhere else.

And that there can be cultural, religious, and racial differences from one part of state to another.

but...there is an objective reality here when it comes to geography and geographical regions.

by d 2008-09-18 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Jerome--off topic here but just curious. After seeing Sarah Palin on the stump the last week or so are you still convinced that she is the Dems worst nightmare for the next 20 years? To me she is looking more and more like a liability but I am curious to know your take.

by wasder 2008-09-18 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Yea, I think she'll be around and strong. The dkos/R2000 numbers are highly skewed to a pro-democratic number.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-18 01:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Even if she's getting likened to Bush in a skirt.
Is she more competent than Bush?  Hard to say.

I still think she's a fad, but if she sticks around, she's dangerous.

by esconded 2008-09-18 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

OK--Thanks for the response. So this is based on her performance on the stump? What are you seeing that I am not seeing, that makes you think she has lasting appeal? I get why she has the base jazzed up but I think that she is not wearing well with the middle of the ideological spectrum. The more that comes out about her the more her negatives seem to go up. I really feel like by the time that November comes around she will be a drag on McCain, especially if the Troopergate investigation gets completed.

I would imagine given the economic circumstances that McCain wishes he had picked Romney right about now so that he could have at least a semi-credible voice on the economy on his team.

Lets compare notes at the end of the campaign about what we think Sarah Palin's political future will be.

by wasder 2008-09-18 03:26PM | 0 recs
All polls showing the same trend...

Now, I suppose that trend could reverse, but all of the polls have been showing a crash in her favorabilities.  The Dkos/R2k poll has the worst numbers for her, but others are now showing her as having either the worst or 2nd worst net favorability of the 4 candidates.

by leshrac55 2008-09-19 12:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Midwest is tight--no doubt about it.  Every Big Ten state is up for grabs, except Illinois.

In the end, I expect Obama to carry Iowa and Wisconsin.  Pennsylvania and Michigan are iffy,
and contrary to what Poblano says, McCain could win despite losing the popular vote.

Off topic, but why doesn't RCP (and MyDD's election map) include ARG polls?

by esconded 2008-09-18 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

ARG finds Obama only up 6% in Illinois.  Enough said.

by Skaje 2008-09-18 01:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

MyDD does a percentage off of RCP, Pollster, and 538, so they are included.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-18 01:59PM | 0 recs
obama won't carry Pennsylvania and Michigan?

Really?  After supporting both Gore and Kerry?

I would say that the only states on this list that might be close on election day are Indiana and Ohio.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are going to stick with the Democrats in 2000 and 2004 and then pick the Republicans in 2008?  I would never place a bet on that happening.

by d 2008-09-18 02:07PM | 0 recs

Esconded, read my earlier post.  Pennsylvania is SAFE dem.  It's NOT going to happen on Rendell's watch.  900,000 more dems actually means something.

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-18 03:39PM | 0 recs

McCain can pump as much money into Pennsylvania as he wants, he will NOT carry that state. Obama has so many advantages that it's not even close.  Voter Identification, 900,000,000 edge, Rendell, Philly, Biden (from Scranton) and Pittsburgh.  Game Over.  If I was McCain I would rather pump everything into Ohio and VA.  

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-18 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Ops. That should be a 900,000 edge.

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-18 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

It is relevant to note that the Big Ten Poll did not use turnout projections to weight the results. That might be why states such as Iowa and Pennsylvania are closer in this poll than they possibly should be.

by JDF 2008-09-18 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Yes, good point, they are off with the party numbers. What about WI & MN numbers?  Obama is gonna have to start advertising in MN.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-18 01:57PM | 0 recs
IMHO, MN and WI are blue... far as the national map's concerned. If they cannot be counted on as we approach Election Day, this becomes a much more difficult race, in general. (See my comment, below.)

by bobswern 2008-09-18 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

I am more worried about Wisconsin than I am Minnesota. Obama should start advertising in MN but I don't think Minnesota is as big a problem for Obama as Virginia or Florida are for McCain. I think at the end of the day both of those states go are way but hard work is certainly required.

by JDF 2008-09-18 02:24PM | 0 recs

I realize there are no Florida nos. in this story; but, for the past few cycles, if you lost all three you lost the election. Now, I've read and heard everything about the map being "different" this year, but the only real differences are Colorado and Virginia, IMHO. (Nevada and New Mexico are tight, they have been in the past few cycles, they will be this time, as well.)

Just the fact that Pennsylvania is very close is not comforting. Iowa solidly behind Obama, but I just heard today that McCain's moving ahead in NH.

"The map," for all of the spin I've heard about it, differs much less from recent cycles than some would have us believe.

McCain's top operatives (Ribiero and Seaton) are in PA, OH, and MI. There's a reason for that. These are the folks most well-versed in dirty tricks, from caging to general suppression tactics. Add Florida to this list, which is moving for McCain (last poll I read showed him 5 pts. up), and it's a very tight race, with the same four swingstates in play--and vital to whomever wins, just like it's been for quite some time. If anyone wins three of these four, I think that pretty much closes the deal. If they fight to a two-two draw, then the swingstates of NH, NM, CO, VA, NV, IA close the deal.

This is much of the CW, and I think it will remain this way through until Election Day.

It'd be nice to see Obama pull ahead a bit more with more negative economic news; and the GOPers know this. That, alone could very well decide this entire thing, ground games aside.

by bobswern 2008-09-18 02:13PM | 0 recs
Re: PA, OH, FL

Yes, the map differs less, but it differs in important areas.

Let's not forget that even Rove's "dirty tricks" didn't work in PA or MI the last two times, and as long as the teams there keep pace wth Kerry's efforts (which is almost laughably easy), they can hold on.  With IA as a buffer, that means Obama only needs CO+NM.  That makes it a nailbiter, but still a winning map.  At this point, I'd rate my election night nervousness like so (from best to worst) if we win these:

NC/IN: They're toast
FL: Pretty much there
VA/NV: Only half my fingernails gone
OH/CO: Very hard for them to win it, but not foregone

And if we lose these:

MI/IA/NM: Not good
MN/NH: We're fucked

by zombieflanders 2008-09-18 02:58PM | 0 recs
Palin's impact

Palin has had a more lasting impact in states with more hunters and gun owners.  That's why WA, OR, WI, MN, PA, MI are all tight right now.  As for Iowa, I'm not sure about.

As for the other battleground states, her impact is limited.

by esconded 2008-09-18 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

Can you say, outlier?  This is the first poll I've seen that has Iowa within double digits  The rest of the results seem more or less plausible.

by dmfox 2008-09-18 02:40PM | 0 recs
state-by-state MOE

Are we talking about state-by-state samples of about 150 here, with the attendant gigantic MOE's?

by aaronetc 2008-09-18 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: state-by-state MOE

They have samples of 600 per state, says the website. I don't know how that translates to the total stated though.

by dtox 2008-09-18 03:08PM | 0 recs
Paid for by the Football Conference

which in turn owns the Big Ten Network. There'd be a financial incentive to make the States look close, in the hopes of drawing ad spending by the campaigns and supporting orgs.

by benmasel 2008-09-18 04:47PM | 0 recs
The internals are a JOKE

Look a little closer, Jerome.  For instance, the Pennsylvania sample has a 50-50 split of men and women voters ... TWELVE percent of voters under 29 years old ... EIGHTY-NINE percent white to five percent black ... and 36 percent Democratic, 34.5 Republican.  Come on.  That flies in the face of 2004 turnout in every way, and is absurd on its face.  But hey, anything to throw that wet blanket, right?

by Tangie3 2008-09-18 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Big Ten Poll

MN even close?  What a laugh.  Hunters like Palin...not much here in MN.  Maybe as a pinup in the fish-house (no they are not up yet, but getting closer).

Most of what I hear is that Palin sounds like a overbearing mother figure with a whiney voice (not my words), and there is a GREAT disappointment with McCain.  I think it is getting harder for the moderate crowd to vote against the black candidate, especially since one excuse after another has been laid to waste.  Many I knew were REALLY excited over his pick of Palin...until she started stumping.  And McCain started falling all over himself.  And the economy REALLY went south.

Nope, MN is safely Democrat.

by Hammer1001 2008-09-18 06:57PM | 0 recs
The accent effect?
...the states of Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to be the ones where McCain-Palin have gained the most traction since the conventions. Is this because she talks like them?
by greenvtster 2008-09-18 07:22PM | 0 recs


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