McCain/Palin Favorables Continue To Slip

by Todd Beeton, Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 08:47:48 AM EDT

While today's Research 2000 3-day rolling average shows no change since yesterday's poll (48-44 Obama), last night's polling did show a slight improvement over Monday's (48-43 Obama vs. 48-44 Obama.) In addition, we're seeing McCain's and Palin's favorables continue to slip, indicating, as I mentioned yesterday, that there could be something more than merely the end of a bounce to account for the perceptible shift in momentum.

Check out McCain's most recent favorable/unfavorable numbers vs. Obama's:

Obama 55/37 (54/37, 54/38, 54/39, 55/41...)
McCain 48/45 (49/45, 51/45, 53/44, 55/43...)

And here are Palin's vs. Biden's:

Biden 50/33 (49/32, 48/32, 49/33, 50/32...)
Palin 44/45 (45/44, 47/43, 47/42, 49/40...)

Notice that Palin is, for the first time, in negative favorability territory. Pretty remarkable movement in just 5 short days.

Also, two polls are showing McCain losing ground on his ability to handle the economy.

Today's Rasmussen Reports 3-day rolling average shows the race holding steady at 48-47 McCain but with a slight uptick for Obama on the issue of the economy. Whereas yesterday McCain held a 49-45 edge, today Rasmussen shows Obama down by just 2 at 47-45.

Add to that the new Reuters poll, which shows Obama gaining 7 points on the economy since last month:

Half of all voters said the economy was the top issue, and the poll showed McCain narrowly led Obama on the question of which candidate could best manage the economy by 47 percent to 45 percent.
But that was a significant gain for Obama from McCain's 9-point advantage last month. The poll was taken before Sunday's upheaval on Wall Street with the fall of Lehman Brothers Holding and the sale of Merrill Lynch.

Not coincidentally, I suspect, Obama also gained 7 points overall since August, going from a 5 point deficit to a 2 point lead.

As the financial crisis escalates and Obama continues to make the case that he is the man to be trusted to fix the economy, I suspect we'll continue to see Obama move up and McCain move down on this metric. Obama's excellent new two minute ad on the economy is his latest attempt to shore up those numbers and I think will be effective. As Marc Ambinder reminds us:

Remember, Obama aired a two-minute ad just like this one a few days before the Iowa caucuses. Many Obama aides believed at the time that it pushed him over the edge because it made voters feel comfortable voting for Obama.

The ad definitely passes the "do I want this guy in my living room for 8 years" test and projects Obama as caring, knowledgeable and competent, three things America is desperate for in a president.

Watch it:

Tags: Barack Obama, Economy, joe biden, John McCain, Sarah Palin (all tags)

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Re: McCain/Palin Favorables Continue To Slip

New Gallup Daily tracking shows Obama 47, McCain 45.

Looks like it's flipped back to pre-convention.

Took about 3 weeks, as predicted.

by OmniStipes 2008-09-17 09:03AM | 0 recs

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Gallup has Obama ahead 47-45

Looks like the McCain bounce is in its last throes (for real this time).

by ann0nymous 2008-09-17 09:03AM | 0 recs

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Re: McCain/Palin Favorables Continue To Slip

Obama takes lead in Gallup Daily! 47-45!!

First time since the GOP convention we've had a lead!

Let's hope it continues!

by LordMike 2008-09-17 09:05AM | 0 recs

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Re: McCain/Palin Favorables Continue To Slip

Ooops.. missed the previous post... sorry...

by LordMike 2008-09-17 09:05AM | 0 recs

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This is a serious economic crisis...

...and who looks like the serious politician, with integrity and gravitas.

Not McCain/Palin.

by duende 2008-09-17 09:10AM | 0 recs

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Re: McCain/Palin Favorables Continue To Slip

A slip in favorables can be a harbinger of preference polls down the road.

The Obama campaign seems to playing a strategy of attrition: I suspect they believe McCain's reputation and history make it difficult if not impossible to land a knockout blow: they know they're not going to take him out with one punch on one issue. It's not that easy, especially given some of the other obstacles Obama is up against.

But every day, McCain further tarnishes that reputation and causes people to question that history, and people are coming around to recognize that he's not who they thought he is. Obama's approach seems to be to simply reinforce what the public is already realizing about the McCain/Palin ticket, building on the public's shifting perception rather than trying to push it real hard on their own.

Meanwhile, an ad in which he directly and seriously addresses the country offers a clear contrast with McCain's sad muckery.

But I'm going to reserve judgment until I read Jerome's analysis of these polling trends. His understanding of polls is without peer in the blogosphere, his observations tend to be the most perceptive, and he always has effective recommendations for how to help Obama win.

by BobzCat 2008-09-17 09:15AM | 0 recs

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That last paragraph

Ack! My eyes! The snark, it burns!

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-09-17 09:42AM | 0 recs

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Re: McCain/Palin Favorables Continue To Slip

Obama stays positive and channels the republican campaign's negativity so as to ensure their self-destruction...

by french imp 2008-09-17 12:40PM | 0 recs

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I can't believe that a DEM was ever behind on the

economy.

If Obama does not get these numbers decisively towards his advantage then the only question is when does Hillary start opening her Iowa field offices for the 2012 race.

by Monkei 2008-09-17 09:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: I can't believe that a DEM

Calm down. It's shifting right now.

McCain/Palin is in a serious downdraft right now.

by OmniStipes 2008-09-17 09:20AM | 0 recs

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Well

help me understand how a democrat EVER got behind in voters eyes on the economy to start. then maybe I can start calming down!

by Monkei 2008-09-17 10:59AM | 0 recs

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And isn't next Friday's debate...

...about domestic and economic issues? That'll be fun...

by KTinOhio 2008-09-17 09:26AM | 0 recs

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Re: And isn't next Friday's debate...

I expect McCain to get personal to some extent in that debate. I also hope Obama will remind him that he once said "I don't know too much about the economy."

by JDF 2008-09-17 09:34AM | 0 recs

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Re: And isn't next Friday's debate...

And I'm sure Obama will use it to further introduce us to John McCain's lobbyist friends.

He's still got a couple of cards to play, actually. First, there's that whole Iseman business (which doesn't need to talk about his relationship with her, that's for the media), but also Keating 5, which NOBODY has mentioned fucking ONCE. That's not good, when nobody's mentioned something that was a major scandal.

by vcalzone 2008-09-17 09:49AM | 0 recs

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Re: And isn't next Friday's debate...

Keating 5 is both keeping your powder dry and also a warning. If the McCain campaign and/or 527s try to make a push on Rezko, you can bet there's Keating 5 material already prepped and ready.

I'm not completely sure how Keating 5 will play. On the one hand it's a far worse scandal than Rezko could ever be -- far worse consequences, much more direct involvement and gain by McCain, etc. There's really not much to cling to on Rezko, really -- it lets Obama run the line from the Chicago Tribune about his candor and transparency, etc., and there just is no smoking gun there. So to that extent Keating 5 is much worse.

On the other hand, it's much older than Rezko and McCain will be able to claim that he "learned from his mistake". So it's probably best kept as a rapid-response tactic for Rezko, as it will shift attention right back to McCain.

I could see it possibly as a late-October attack if Rezko hasn't come up by then. For either of the two, running the story second is the stronger position, because there are adequate counters to either. That changes in late October where there's not much room for a counter.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-09-17 10:07AM | 0 recs

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Re: And isn't next Friday's debate...

Keating 5 will be really damaging if put forward in one way, and will be met with shrugs if put any other way.

There's only one way to use it, and it was only opened up this week. McCain has been saying he will clean up Wall Street, take on the greedy. Well, now we can show that he sang the same tune 20 years ago and didn't learn a thing. We couldn't trust him then and we can't trust him now. It kills his reformer credentials DEAD if Obama puts out an ad like that or (better still) uses it to turn John McCain into a stammering bowl of Jello for a big portion of the first debate.

by vcalzone 2008-09-18 10:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: McCain/Palin Favorables Continue To Slip

On the visuals of the ad, I've been hoping to see somethign like this -- straight talk to the camera, muted background, no music, crowds, blue tint or jump cuts. This was the style of the Edwards ads that in the final weeks before Iowa brought a significant chunk of older, middle income, suburban and rural voters -- esp men -- to his side, because they believed he was speaking honestly about real issues.

The Obama people, as I recall, actually shot a similar ad and ran it as their final pitch in Iowa -- instead of their typically overproduced high-production values -- to stave off the loss of support among middle income older men to Edwards.

by desmoulins 2008-09-17 09:34AM | 0 recs

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Re: McCain/Palin Favorables Continue To Slip

Todd--thanks for stealing the thunder from my diary. Haha. I love this ad and think that it should become both a television spot as well as an emailable, blastable, viral campaign. It projects Obama just the right way I think.

by wasder 2008-09-17 09:59AM | 0 recs