Why hasn't EMILY's List gotten behind Becky Greenwald in IA-04?

Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY's List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa's fourth Congressional district.

I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY's List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to denigrate any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.

However, after comparing Greenwald's race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY's list is not more involved in IA-04.

Follow me after the jump for more.

First things first: IA-04 has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+0, meaning that in the last two presidential elections the two-party vote in the district closely tracked the national vote. Since 2004, every Congressional district in Iowa has seen big gains in Democratic voter registration, which surged in connection with this year's presidential caucuses. For the first time since Iowa's districts were last redrawn, IA-04 now has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Democrats have an advantage in the generic Congressional ballot nationwide, but what may be more relevant for this district is Barack Obama's big lead over John McCain in Iowa (double-digits according to the two most recent polls). The Obama campaign's enormous ground game in Iowa will be working in Greenwald's favor too. Her staffers and volunteers seem pleased with the level of coordination between the campaigns' turnout efforts.

Turning to Greenwald as a candidate, you can see from her bio that she has strong roots in the district as well as experience in the business world and a history of volunteering for causes including the Iowa Democratic Party. She dominated the four-way Demomcratic primary on June 3, winning over 50 percent of the vote. As of June 30, she had raised about $143,000 for her campaign but had only about $82,000 cash on hand because of her competitive primary.

Several Iowa political analysts observed this summer that Greenwald can beat Tom Latham if she can raise enough money to compete. Latham serves on the House Appropriations Committee and was sitting on more than $800,000 cash on hand as of June 30. Then again, plenty of well-funded incumbents have lost seats in Congress when facing a big wave toward the other party. Cook has this race as likely R, but I would consider it lean R. There have been no public polls on the race yet.

The current reporting period ends September 30. I don't have inside information about Greenwald's cash on hand now, but I know she has been aggressively fundraising all summer long. I assume things have gone fairly well on that front, because the DCCC just put IA-04 on its "Emerging Races" list. One thing working in Greenwald's favor is that the Des Moines and Mason City markets, which cover most of the 28 counties in the district, are not too expensive for advertising. So, she can be up on the air for several weeks, even though she clearly won't be able to match Latham dollar for dollar.

Side note: Shortly after the Democratic primary in IA-04, the sore loser who finished third vowed to run for Congress as an independent. However, he quickly turned his attention to the fight against Iowa's new smoking ban. He then failed to submit petitions to qualify for the ballot, took down his Congressional campaign website and reportedly moved to Florida. In other words, he won't be a factor in November.

Why should EMILY's list get involved in this race? Not only is Greenwald a good fit for the district, she is pro-choice whereas Latham has a perfect zero rating on votes related to abortion rights.

As a bonus, Greenwald has the potential to end Iowa's disgrace as one of only two states that have never sent a woman to Congress or elected a woman governor.

Now, I will briefly examine the six candidates for U.S. House whom EMILY's list most recently endorsed. As I said earlier, I don't mean to knock any of these candidates, but I do question why these districts would be considered more winnable than IA-04.

1. Anne Barth. She is running against incumbent Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia's second district (R+5, somewhat more Republican than IA-04). Cook has this race as lean R, Swing State Project sees it as likely R. As of June 30, Barth had about $353,000 cash on hand, compared to more than $1.2 million for Capito. My understanding is that this district is quite expensive for advertising because of its proximity to Washington, DC.

2. Sam Bennett. She is running against incumbent Charlie Dent in Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District (D+2, slightly more Democratic than IA-04). Cook and Swing State Project both rate this race as likely R, although Chris Bowers is optimistic given the partisan lean of the district. As of June 30, Bennett had just under $354,000 cash on hand, compared to about $687,000 for Dent.

3. Jill Derby. She is running against incumbent Dean Heller, who beat her in the 2006 election to represent Nevada's second district (R+8, markedly more Republican than IA-04). It's not too uncommon for Congressional candidates to win on their second attempt, but Cook and Swing State Project both view this district as likely R. As of June 30, Derby had about $314,000 cash on hand, while Heller had just over $1 million in the bank.

4. Judy Feder. This is another rematch campaign, as incumbent Frank Wolf beat Feder by a comfortable margin in 2006 in Virginia's 10th Congressional District (R+5). Again, Cook and Swing State Project agree that this is a likely R district. As of June 30, Feder was doing quite well in the money race with about $812,000 cash on hand, not too far behind Wolf's $849,000.

5. Annette Taddeo. She is running against incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida's 18th Congressional District (R+4). Cook and Swing State Project both rank this district as likely R. Taddeo made a great impression on people at Netroots Nation and had just under $444,000 in the bank on June 30, while the incumbent reported nearly $1.9 million.

6. Victoria Wulsin. In 2006, she fell just short against incumbent "Mean Jean" Schmidt in Ohio's second district (R+13). Granted, Schmidt is ineffective as an incumbent, which is probably why Swing State Project has this in the lean R category (it's likely R according to Cook). Wulsin also had about $378,000 in the bank on June 30, compared to about $390,000 for Schmidt. Still, this is a markedly more Republican district than IA-04.

I understand that EMILY's List does not have unlimited resources, but I still find it surprising that they have not jumped in to support Greenwald. A little money goes a long way in the Mason City and Des Moines media markets.

If you want to help send Greenwald to Congress, go here and give what you can. September 15 is her birthday, by the way.

I look forward to reading your comments about EMILY's list or any of these Congressional races.

Tags: 2008 elections, Anne Barth, annette taddeo, Becky Greenwald, Congress, Emily's List, FL-18, Florida, House, IA-04, Iowa, Jill Derby, Judy Feder, Nevada, NV-02, OH-02, Ohio, PA-15, Pennsylvania, Sam Bennett, Tom Latham, VA-10, Vic Wulsin, Virginia, West Virginia, WV-02 (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Re: Why hasn't EMILY's List

I may be wrong but she may want to contact them or perhaps yourself before blasting them for it?

by zerosumgame 2008-09-14 11:28AM | 0 recs
I heard over the summer

that they were watching this race, and I believe she did meet with them during a trip to Washington. I know that other Iowans who are active with EMILY's list have encouraged them to get involved.

My intent was not to "blast" them, and I'm sorry if the diary came across that way.

This is a winnable, Democratic-trending district where the incumbent Republican has a zero record on choice and the challenger is a strong Democratic woman. Seems like a good fit for EMILY's list to me.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-14 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: I heard over the summer

I'm sorry but you "heard" and you "believe" are the basis of your diary?

by zerosumgame 2008-09-14 11:57AM | 0 recs
no, the basis for my diary

is the fact that EMILY's list has so far not gotten involved in IA-04, a fact I confirmed with a Greenwald campaign staffer when I double-checked on Friday.

Acquaintances who have been active with EMILY's list, including as volunteers doing GOTV for Hillary in Iowa, told me over the summer that they had called Ellen Malcolm and others to encourage EMILY's list to get involved with the IA-04 race.

My understanding is that Becky Greenwald did meet with EMILY's list over the summer.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-14 12:22PM | 0 recs
haven't seen the district breakdown

in today's Des Moines Register poll, but in the Time/CNN Iowa poll released 10 days ago, Obama was leading McCain even in western Iowa, the most Republican region of the state. (Most of western Iowa is in IA-05, which is R+8.)

Obama has a bunch of field offices in the fourth Congressional district and will win it handily, as did Chet Culver in the 2006 gubernatorial election.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-14 11:43AM | 0 recs
The poll released today

seems to suggest that Palin isn't moving evangelicals towards McCain's camp in Iowa.  Are most of the evangelicals in the state in Western Iowa?  Is Steve King from Western IA?

If Obama is that strong in rural Iowa, is it a safe assumption he's holding his own in rural Wisconsin, notwithstanding the Strategic Vision poll that was released?

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-14 11:58AM | 0 recs
Steve King represents western Iowa

33 counties in western Iowa make up the fifth district.

I think Iowa is something of a special case for Obama, since he spent so much time here in 2007 while McCain bypassed the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and 2008. Also, McCain's stand on ethanol probably causes him to underperform in rural Iowa.

I haven't seen recent polling data on rural voters in places like Wisconsin. Demographically, they are probably similar to the Iowa electorate, but Obama didn't spend nearly as much time campaigning in Wisconsin.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-14 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The poll released today

The large blocks of strong religious republicans  in Western Iowa are also strong peace advocates in the regions, specifically in Sioux County (Steve King's IA-5 seat).

It makes this election difficult to predict, given that this group is heavily torn between their desires for social (and fiscal) conservatism and ending the Iraq war/general violence-first postures.

Rob Hubler in IA-5 has been working hard in that district, very tough ground but certainly not outside the realm of possibility to win.

IA-4 was a bit of a strange situation going into this year with the expected candidate being last cycles surprise candidate who withdrew after launching a new attempt for the seat this cycle.  The DCCC/etc had reasons to be skeptical of pursuing this seat and certainly there are other places where it is easier to have impact in...

It is difficult ground to organize given the mostly rural nature of the district, Becky Greenwald overcame that by bringing in several Dodd for President staffers who worked the region for the caucuses to run her field operations.

As far as Emily's Lists goes - like any other organization, they have their own self-interest at stake with every investment they make.  They are more influential when they deliver victories and thus have incentive to scrutinize how many races and which races they invest in.  Limited resources and it is very difficult to evaluate the quality of "new" candidates and their campaigns...makes it like jumping into an empty swimming pool head first some times...

by mp 2008-09-14 02:16PM | 0 recs
I take your point, but

if you look at the list of candidates they've endorsed, they are taking chances on quite a few longshots.

I think that's the right thing to do, by the way. I wouldn't want to see them investing mainly in high-probability pickups.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-14 02:33PM | 0 recs
Too busy

They are probably too busy spending their money on racists like Tinker in Tennessee to be bothered with a candidate who would actually do something good in DC.

by blue south 2008-09-14 12:35PM | 0 recs
I was thinking that myself

Whatever they spent on Tinker's campaign would have been much better spent on any number of Democratic women challenging anti-choice Republicans.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-14 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Too busy

They have some major repentance to do for that race.  I don't see myself ever giving them money because they supported that racist, bigoted woman.

by umcpgreg 2008-09-14 01:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Why hasn't EMILY's List gotten behind Becky Gr

Who cares? EMILY's list officially jumped the shark when the endorsed Jew-baiter Nikki Tinker over Steve Cohen, despite his 100% record on choice and 100% record on women (PDF, page 14).

by CrazyDrumGuy 2008-09-14 04:29PM | 0 recs
I care because IA-04

is not a very wealthy district, and it's not easy to raise huge dollars there.

Support from outside organizations such as EMILY's list would go far in this district.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-14 05:39PM | 0 recs
Call Howard Dean

I suggest that you call Howard Dean. With a 50 state strategy and $17 million in the bank, I'm sure the DNC is gearing up bigtime to promote women candidates across the board.

by hwc 2008-09-14 08:08PM | 0 recs
haven't seen you in a while, hwc

but why don't you kick in a few bucks for Becky Greenwald on her birthday? She caucused for Hillary.

As you know, I support the 50-state strategy. We've already picked up several U.S. House seats because we are seriously competing in places Democrats wrote off for a long time (such as KS-02, MS-01).

Also, the 50-state strategy has strengthened the state parties. The Iowa Democratic Party is doing a lot of GOTV for Becky.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-14 10:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Why hasn't EMILY's List ...?

Has anyone noticed that EMILY's List has only endorsed these candidates?  They are not on the recommended candidate lists.  Also the EMILY's List website has made no mention of the endorsements.  What's up with all that?

by Phonatic 2008-09-17 07:25AM | 0 recs

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