there and stop wasting his money in the Dakotas, indiana, montana. Plus, we have a fucking Democratic machine in Ohio waiting to open up.

Obama's ground game in Colorado has to be pretty good after the convention.

That was a lot of money and pretty good press focussed on the state; by contrast, the RNC might've brought some money to St. Paul & Minneapolis, but the press was mostly bad.

IF he gives up on States like Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, and even reaches like North Carolina I am going to be a little upset. We need to, for the long term good of our party, expand the map.

I pray the Quinnipiac Ohio poll is official. I hope it is true. Damn if this Ohio poll is sound, then it's over guys. If Obama can SOME HOW pull of the Buckeye State, GAME OVER. The unemployment rate in Ohio is at 9.1%. God Guns & Gays can't save McCain.

You are giving McCain too much credit for having a strategy behind the Palin pick -- beyond she is a woman fundamentalist.

The McCain campaign has no focus beyond creating the next manufactured controversy. Their new campaign slogan of Reform is already coming back to bite them in the ass.

They are on the warpath to destroy Obama. I honestly didn't think they were going to do it, but clearly McCain has the arrogance as does Palin to believe they can do no wrong. The Republican brand is badly tarnished and win or lose McCain is going to be hated by nearly half the country.

What a way to run the country and inspire a nation.

Colorado plus the Gore states means victory for Obama, and he pretty much has that.

So Obama has a backup electoral map game plan in the event that the swing state trifecta, Missouri, Ohio and Florida, revert to their traditionalist Southern mentalities and go for McCain.

I'd like to see that because it would that the same ol' states wouldn't be determinative for the president.

But then again, padding our victory margin is not a bad thing either!

...toward Ohio, pennsylvania and Michigan. he is, to some extent, sacrificing his chances in Virginia, North Carolina, etc.

I think this makes sense in the long run.

We are all nervous right now, but there may be some method to this madness.

If Obama can force McCain to waste a lot of money defending Florida too, he may pull this one out yet.

Slow and steady wins the race.

Rasmussen and Quinnipiac release starkly different numbers.

Who is right.

Rasmussen sees Mccain expanding his lead while Quinnipiac sees Obama expanding his lead.

I really don't see what Obama has done in Ohio to make him expand his lead in the past two weeks , however I can see a reason why Mccain's lead would be up..

We would have to wait and see other polls..

However I do believe Ohio and Co would decide the election...

I think that the swing Obama to McCain among independents is the result of two factors.

First, Democratic identification among voters has been trending upward since 2006.  Secondly, Republican identification among voters has been trending downward/static since the 2006 cycle.  

Speaking solely for myself, my voting patterns at all levels, state, local, and federal, has trended from 65/35 Democratic / Republican in 1990 to about 90/0/10 Democratic / Republican / Libertarian in 2006.  I was in Texas in 2006, and there were lots of state races where the only two options on the ballot were Rep and Libertarian.  

Even thought I voted for mostly Democrats, I was still an "independent" the entire time.  I only finally enrolled (in Massachusetts, which has party enrollment) as a Democrat this past winter in order to vote in the Democratic primary.

Since more Democratic-leaning independents have been switching over to actually enrolling as Democrats, and people have been leaving the Republican Party, it seems to me that Republican-leaning Independents make up a larger portion of the overall Independent pool now than prior to 2006.  If that is true, then it makes sense that as the election approaches, more of them will break for McCain.

I've heard Obama has registered 900,000 voters in Ohio.  Does anyone know if this is true?  I find it hard to believe; too good to be true.

Perhaps new Dem registrants thru priamry?  Very curious.

I'm not sure Colorado is looking all that tenuous.  PPP has Obama +1, and Rasmussen has Obama +3, in polls immediately following the Republican convention.  

We're in a prime position to win this cycle. We don't need Ohio (but we'd be foolish to concede it). It'll be close regardless, Obama has to look to defend all of Kerry's states, which he likely will and he'll have to get Iowa, Nevada, Colorado in the fold and that I believe will be enough. Iowa seems to be a lock. Add in New Mexico. Should be exciting.

The dollar discussion is a little misleading. Each Obama dollar is not a stand-alone device. He has built very effective ground organizations in many of the states on the edge, like Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, etc.  To pull out dollars now would mean a huge waste of resources. Where those states, with our ground efforts, can be sustained without a huge detriment to the campaign as a whole, they should stay right in the mix. If you have CO, NM NV, MT, NH, VA, IN, IA all within striking distance right now, the prudent strategy is to keep the operations strong and spend advertising dollars there too, but wisely.  That should still leave ample resources for the effort in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

It just is not smart thinking to panic and pull back a third of your whole operation on the basis of less than one week's national polling.

Palin Doesn't Matter, Numbers Do
By Bob Beckel

The Sarah Palin "boom" that has so traumatized Democrats and intimidated the press will have little if any impact on the presidential election. People don't vote for vice presidents, they vote for presidents. This race is about John McCain and Barack Obama not Annie Oakley from Wasilla, Alaska. It is also about turnout numbers and the electoral demographics in 2008 which overwhelm any impact Sarah Palin might have on the election outcome.

First the Palin "boom". It is the product of surprise (a short lived but powerful force in politics), an emotional outlet for the GOP Right, and post convention polls. In the intense coverage of politics by the ever expanding number of outlets for political information, what is new and surprising quickly becomes over exposed resulting in a short shelf life. The freshness goes away quickly. So it will be shortly for Ms. Palin. She has had the best week in this campaign she will have and the only direction now is down.

The large turnouts at McCain/Palin events this week are a result of an energized Right (which will vote Republican anyway) and say as much about the lack of enthusiasm on the Right for McCain before he picked Palin as it does about any shift in the electorate. As for post convention polls; they are the least predictive of the eventual outcome as any polls in a presidential election. Of course there was a "bounce" after 3 days of what amounted to an infomercial for McCain and a negative ad campaign against Obama. It will not last.

Despite the best efforts of the McCain campaign to control press access to Palin, they can hold back the press tide only so long. It is simply too big and prolific. McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis said on Fox News Sunday they will continue to limit press access until the media shows some "deference" to Palin. Deference is for dictators and monarchs not for junior governors of sparsely populated states like Alaska who expect to be second in line to the leader of the world's oldest Democracy.

When the press tide breaks over Palin what has been given little coverage will be widely disseminated:

* Instead of being a reform governor who hates federal "pork" it will become common knowledge that she has lobbied for and gotten $770 million dollars in pork projects making Alaska among the top three states per capita receiving government largess.

* Far from opposing the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" pork project, she supported it wholeheartedly only to oppose it when the project became a political bombshell (She kept the bridge money anyway for other Alaskan boondoggles).

* Palin is a right winger. She opposes abortion even in the case of rape, incest AND even if the health of the mother is in jeopardy. She favors shooting wolves from airplanes and has addressed her husband's Alaska Independence Movement affiliation which calls for a vote on Alaska separating from the United States.

And this is only what we know so far. As Barack Obama rightly said stories about Palin's family should be off limits. Besides a sense of propriety, raising her family issues only gives the McCain campaign more ammunition for press bashing. There is plenty of information on Palin unrelated to her family to drive the gender gap back to the Democrats and to ignite the Democratic base.

Now to numbers and demographics (those things that, unlike Palin, really matter in this election year). It has been widely reported that Democrats have a decided advantage over Republicans in voter self identification (from the low double digits to a 20% spread). What has received less attention is the number of newly registered voters in 2008. According to USA Today in the 28 states that register voters by party affiliation the Democrats have added 2 million new voters in 2008 while Republicans have lost 344,000.

Among the states with the largest number of new registrants are Ohio and Pennsylvania, two hotly contested states between Obama and Clinton (yet another reason to debunk the notion that a protracted nominating season hurt Obama). Add to this the vastly superior ongoing voter registration efforts by the Obama campaign which should result in an even greater Democrat to Republican registration advantage by November 4th. Given voter self identification numbers, even if Republicans get organized there are far fewer Republicans to register in 2008.

Demographics also favor the Democrats big time in 2008. It is generally conceded that Obama will win the youth vote by a healthy margin, and if primaries are indicators of fall turnout (historically they are) the youth vote will increase substantially over 2004. Millions of new voters have reached 18 since 2004. Some examples according to the US Census Bureau:

* In Ohio (which John Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes in 2004), 750,000 eligible voters between 18 and 22 who could not vote in 2004 can vote in 2008.

* In Colorado (Kerry lost by 99,000) 293,000 between 18 and 22 have become eligible to vote in 2008.

* In New Mexico (Kerry lost by 6000 votes) 145,000 kids have reached voting age.

* In Michigan 690,000 have become eligible.

* In Virginia 465,000 (Kerry lost by 260,000).

* In Florida alone over 1 million young people have reached voting age since 2004.

Then there are black voters. According to the Census Bureau there are 24 million eligible black voters in America of which 16 million (64%) are registered. In 2004 blacks cast 14 million votes or only 56% of the eligible black population. Blacks are registering to vote at historic rates in 2008 and turnout will soar above 2004 levels. Some examples:

* In Colorado there are 110000 eligible black voters. Only 50,000 voted in 2004.

* In Ohio there are 860,000 eligible black voters. Only 380,000 voted in 2004. (Remember Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes).

* In Virginia, 945,000 eligible black voters, 465,000 voted in 2004.

* Florida; 1,750,000 eligible blacks, 770,000 voted in 2004.

Not to get morbid but there is another statistic that is working against the Republicans. The Center for Disease Control estimates there have been, on average, 2.5 million deaths in America each year since 2005, the overwhelming number of whom were 65 years and older. Since it is generally conceded that John McCain will win the over 65 vote the actuarial tables present a problem. But you say millions have turned 65 since 2004. Correct, but among the people who were 61-64 in 2004 the vote split evenly between Kerry and Bush.

Put it all together and the conclusions are fairly obvious. Sarah Palin may help turnout marginally on the Right but mostly in states that will vote Republican like Alaska. In battleground states, voter registration, newly eligible young voters, eligible nonvoting blacks, and even death rates all favor Obama.

Excuse the pun but Palin's impact on the 2008 election pales in comparison to the Democrats' demographic advantages. In the end all the Palin "boom" you hear today will be a whimper come Election Day.
Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign. He is a senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel and a columnist for USA Today. Beckel is the co-author with Cal Thomas of the book "Common Ground."
Page Printed from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/09/palin_doesnt_matter_numbers_do .html at September 11, 2008 - 10:33:35 AM PDT

One more time:

Obama's Firewall states: OH, CO, VA, MO, NV, FL, IN, NC.

60% of resources should go to those states.

30% to some of the more "reach" states--MY, the Dakotas, Arizona, maybe bold efforts to turn out black and poor voters in the deep south. Seems to me, he should choose between South OR west/prairie--if he does a half-assed job in both regions, he will probably lose both and not even scare McAncient.

10% to the 21 safe states won by Kerry, Gore or both, including NM and any that might become competitive. Most of these states have overwhelming Democratic majorities, and it's up to the state machines to deliver. Obama should NOT spend excessive amounts of time in the safe states, or McCain will get the Bush states for free and the whole game will be played in territory that Obama absolutely must win.

Compete in the eight firewall states, and the game is played in only states that McCain cannot win without.  Win any ONE of those eight, and Obama becomes President. Compete in all eight, and he will win some of them.

Part of the McCain bounce is due to the shrinking Bradley effect. Many voters who were going to vote for McCain said they were going to vote for Obama to avoid looking racist. However, Palin gives these voters enough cover to tell the truth to pollsters.

So far its looking a lot like 2000 and 2004. The good news is that if Obama can win all the states that at least went Democratic once, then the electoral college outcome is 269-269. But because Democrats control the House, Obama should become president. According to the polls, it looks like Obama has every state in that category except New Mexico. However, Obama has a slight lead in Colorado. So Obama still has a very slight advantage in the electoral college.

The election comes down to this: Obama must hold on to Pennslyvania, Michigan and Colorado. If he loses Colorado, he must regain New Mexico. A loss in Michigan must be offset by a win in Ohio.

Other polls post Convention from Ohio.

Insider Advantage: McCain 48% Obama 47%
Strategic Vision: McCain 48% Obama 44%
Quinnipiac: McCain 44% Obama 49%
Rasmussen: McCain 51% Obama 44%
CNN: McCain 45% Obama 47%

Average: McCain +1.0%

This will be on hell of a fight. I personally think Obama should pull out of North Carolina and go all in in Ohio. Lets face it, the 50-state strategy is a very flawed plan.

He needs to hammer home McCain's healthcare proposal is to TAX employer-based benefits, that the vaunted "tax credit" doesn't cover the value of most policies.

He needs to point out its a historical FACT that dem administrations create jobs and reduce debt. The GOP has NEVER made job creation a priority. They increase public debt and protect vast private wealth. Every single surrogate should be shouting this from the roof-tops.

Not to even touch upon the perpetual wars he is itching to start.

What a freaking nightmare McCain has become. His Napoleon Complex is glaringly obvious.

I don't think it's just an East Coast thing.

I'm in a large Midwestern metropolis.

Palin's freaking out the Repubs I know--one just told me this morning that he can't support McCain with Palin on the ticket.

(He'll probably not bother voting since we don't have any senate or governor races going on here.)

My question is can the Obama campaign retool for the reality of the usual, close presidential campaign in the usual battlegrounds.

He needs the "old coalition" and early in the campaign he wrote part of it off

The white working class has gone to the Republican nominee for many elections, going back even to the Clinton years

Women, loyal to Senator Hillary Clinton, will "get over it," he reportedly told C.B.C. lawmakers, once they learn what Senator John McCain's positions are on women's issues.

A Washington Post/ABC News survey published on Tuesday found most of McCain's surge in the polls since the Republican National Convention was due to a big shift in support among white women voters.

"The notion that people are swinging back and forth in the span of a few weeks or a few days this wildly generally isn't borne out," Obama told reporters during a campaign stop in Riverside, Ohio.

The campaign is now about those voters. The "new coalition" isn't enough to change the polls and isn't a big factor in the battleground states. The Ohio Democratic party is much stronger than it was in 2004, so Obama certainly has a shot. But Kerry was competitive and bumping into 50% for a lot of 2004 and lost.

Ohio is a red state, just one that has been scorned by the Republican establishment that ran it for too long (and still getting scorned, even today).

The other thing to remember about Ohio, is even though it's so red, we have very blue areas (or potentially). Cleveland, Cincinnati and Dayton have a large African-American populace, so if we can get these areas out to vote this year, an Obama win will not be that hard. That's if the push-polling going on here by McCain doesn't hurt us.

Let's not forget MO... Ras has him down only 5 there, which is what Kerry was down in MO at the same time in 2004... Had Kerry spend a dime's worth of resources there in October, he might have won it.  Bush only won MO by a razor thin margin!

Remember how Obama pulled out MO hours after everyone called it for Hillary?  He can do it again!

I think many independents are actually disaffected Republicans that left the part, or started self identifying as independent after being fed up with Bush. My anecdotal experience suggests this. Therefore it might be likely that if these indies go anywhere, its back from whence they came--to the GOP.

I don't get the defeatism. Sure I understand pulling out of Georgia. It's a relatively expensive market to advertise in and it wasn't realistic at the best of times...

But most of these polls were taken at the absolute height of the RNC bounce... and Virginia is only +1 McCain, North Carolina +4, and now WVa is only +5? These are exceptionally weak numbers for McCain.

Internals for the Insider Advantage poll show AAs are 23% for McCain, 48% for Obama.  Is this a joke??

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF /InsiderAdvantagePollPositionOhioGeneral ElectionPoll91108.pdf

And So is Michigan? That doesn't seem right.