Open Thread
by Todd Beeton, Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 04:59:37 PM EDT
What's up tonight?
Tags: Open Thread (all tags)
Comments
Re: Open Thread
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2008/08/your_vp_senator_what_will_h e_b.php
Let me tell you first what I won't do. I won't hand over my energy policy to my vice president, without knowing necessarily what he's doing.
...I have a feeling this place is about to get ugly
Re: Open Thread
Gender pronouns aside, Obama is basically offering up Hillary Clinton's own self-description. Mad, a fighter, someone who can voice disagreement, etc. Does any of this sound like Kaine or Sibelius? Not to me.
I'd also like to mention that while I really think it may be Clinton, Warner would be another great surprise, and worth all of this endless build-up. I just have a hard time believing that the Obama campaign has engaged in such a long and elaborate game of media manipulation and expectations building just to give the spot to some nobody (Kaine) or some half-rate party elder (Biden) or some unknown Kansan governor. Let alone a boring man's boring man like Bayh. It just doesn't hold the mustard.
Re: Open Thread
For the record, my bet is on Clinton.
Question is, how would they deal with the reels of footage with Clinton bashing Obama and, to a lesser degree, Obama bashing Clinton? A lot of the stuff they said is harmless, but some of it, especially about Obama's readiness to be president and his history of connections with controversial people, could be killer in McCain's ads.
At least we know an Obama/Clinton ticket would know how to fight back. And the are each in their own rite among the best campaigners in modern American politics.
I am serious about this prediction. If it wasn't so damn hard to fund an InTrade account I would already have money on it.
Re: Open Thread
Do you genuinely believe she would allow herself to go back on anything she said in the primary? I have my own unhappy list, but if she doesn't backtrack, what good will she do on the ticket against the ads with her in them?
Re: Open Thread
Looking forward to the big announcement.
Also, read a New York Magazine article from October of last year that was trying to diagnose why Barack Obama, after having raised so many expectations, was so lackluster. Sources close to his campaign were saying that they were trying to hold off campaigning in earnest until they could get some momentum out of it - they didn't want to peak too early.
The writer was skeptical, but of course that's what happened. I'm hoping the convention is like the post-Iowa speech, and that he gets a Bill Clinton sized bounce out of it. If anyone can pull it off, he can.
Biden walked back on his
"I'm not the guy" comment. What does that say about Biden's mouth if he already had to walk back from a comment that he pretty much made unsolicited?
Re: Biden walked back on his
His original comment was a little more ambiguous than people are letting on. He hasn't been contacted yet, therefore "he's not the guy," so far as he knew. Even Steve Clemons picked up on that.
Laughing...
At the last gasps of the PUMAs (and the undercover PUMAs) as they freak out upon realizing it's not gonna be Hillary.
Re: Laughing...
I'd argue (and I did, just above) that Hillary seems much more likely now than at any point since Obama secured the nomination.
Re: Laughing...
Maybe so, but most of the PUMAs are saying they still won't vote for Obama for president.
http://alegrescorner.soapblox.net/showDi
ary.do;jsessionid=E756B93EA9114E0EE26803
148328AFDC?diaryId=684
Evidently the possibility of women dying from septic shock from botched abortion is less important than getting a new head of the DNC.
Re: Laughing...
It certainly is funny to think that most die-hard PUMAs probably wouldn't vote for Obama even if Hillary was on the ticket. How could they? OBAMA CANNOT BE TRUSTED. HE CANNOT BE TRUSTED BY HIS GRANDMA. HE CANNOT BE TRUSTED BY HIS DOG WALKER. HE CAN NOT BE blah blah blah
Re: Laughing...
With PUMAs saying they won't vote for Obama whether or not Clinton is on the ticket, well, then, that sort of undermines the reason to put Clinton the ticket, no?
Then again, there seems to be some misunderstanding about what Clinton has said -- that she supports Obama and is casting her vote for him -- by this blogger who claims that Governor Patterson of NY is dense and folks have to explain things to him. Way to be patronizing! http://alegrescorner.soapblox.net/showDi ary.do?diaryId=687
Re: Laughing...
Yep, that black, blind Governor Patterson of NY needs the truth "spoon fed to him" by a suburban white woman who thinks Clinton might still get the nomination!
Re: Laughing...
I think you confuse PUMAs with swing voters who just really like Clinton. PUMAs are deranged fanatics that are minuscule in number. But Clinton-loving swing voters - like my Grandmother for example, and many other older women - could easily be swayed with Hillary on the ticket. They, too, are a small number according to most polls, but significant enough in certain states to strengthen Obama's hand and open the map a little. Ohio, Florida, Indiana and Pennsylvania come to mind.
Clinton may also help put West Virginia and Arkansas back into play. The downside is that some of Obama's more exotic plays, like Alaska, North Dakota and maybe North Carolina (and Georgia, if you believe that one) might suffer with Clinton on the ticket. But it is hard to imagine Obama losing much support in his core states - the Kerry states plus Iowa and NM - by running with Hillary.
Re: Laughing...
I would click your link but I don't want to have to shower again tonight. Plus, I'm well aware of the nature of their comments, they all need meds
Meds
It's actually kind of sad: most of them are probably functional members of society offline, but give them a keyboard and they turn into the scraggly-haired harridan in front of the public library.
Re: Laughing...
...and laughing! username's first rule of internet hillarity still applies: skim down to the ALL CAPS; there shalt thou find The Humor. Observe...
Kerry was "good-looking and sweet-talking?" And our own catfish/gatoPescado chimes in with: "That's the strongest argument." These people have clearly stopped paying any attention to the meaning of their words. They're simply emoting inchoate Obama-hatred at each other, and online text's the medium.
Democrats have GOT to learn to quit falling for good-looking, sweet-talking mediocrities like Obama and Kerry.
Kerry was "good-looking and sweet-talking?" And our own catfish/gatoPescado chimes in with: "That's the strongest argument." These people have clearly stopped paying any attention to the meaning of their words. They're simply emoting inchoate Obama-hatred at each other, and online text's the medium.
Re: Open Thread
I wonder if they're pushing off the announcement (assuming even that story is true) in order to convince someone who previously refused being the VP nominee.
Re: i dont get it...
Well, I'm just wondering if it would be best to announce Wednesday or so to maximize press coverage - waiting until Saturday doesn't seem optimal, unless they're trying to buy a few days' time.
Re: Open Thread
I think this site is sorely lacking in VP speculation and VP speculation threads. Please tell people to make more of them.
Thanks!
Re: Open Thread
Which one of these is not like the others? It's a minor language nit, but this should be either "Clark, Clinton, Biden" or "Wesley, Hillary, Joe." This business of calling total strangers by their first names is either disrespectful or precious.
Re: Open Thread
Clark and Biden used their last names when campaigning, Hillary used her first name.
Re: Open Thread
That's not a reason to accept her false intimacy. If you met her now, would you call her "Hillary?" If you met Lamar Alexander, would you call him "Lamar?"
Re: Open Thread
I wonder if that has been a sticking point. Obama thinks it would be silly to campaign with one last name and one first name and she is determined to stick with Hillary.
Re: Maddow taking over for Abrams
Here's her comment on the shift:
http://tvdecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 08/19/rachel-maddow-comments-on-new-role /
http://tvdecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 08/19/rachel-maddow-comments-on-new-role /
Re: Open Thread
From talkingpointsmemo tonight - Thought it was interesting --
I think we'll look back on August as when Obama won the election. August was when John McCain had the chance to define Obama and so cement a negative view of him that he could never recover. Now his time is almost up, the conventions are about to begin and we get into the full swing of the campaign. And what did McCain get out of his month? The Gallup tracking poll barely budged; most polls show Obama still with a modest lead, only slightly less than where he started a month or so ago. Obama's negatives are up somewhat -- no surprise after the pummeling he took -- but hardly up to critical levels. Unlike with Kerry, no single message has stuck -- he's a flipflopper! No, he's a scary leftist! No he's an empty celebrity! With no single negative image, the effect is likely to diffuse over time, especially with a successful Democratic convention. I think Obama's played this just right so far. Yes, lots of folks are complaining he hasn't gone after McCain enough but it simply wouldn't have worked. McCain has not been the story -- Obama has been. Unfair, sure, but that's the way it is. Obama's the new guy in town and everyone is trying to figure him out. So instead of fecklessly launching attack after attack on McCain only to have them disappear into the ether, he sat back and played rope-a-dope waiting for his moment. Now his moment is coming. The VP choice, the convention, the post-Labor Day sharpening of people's attention, the debates and the full onslaught of ads, money, and organization. Can he blow it? Sure. He's new to this. He can make the wrong VP choice. He can give an empty, if soaring, acceptance speech (or it could rain!) Hillary and Bill (especially Bill) could add a sour taste to the convention and make that the story. He could fall short of expectations in the debate. But all (or most of those) are under his control. I would so rather be Obama heading toward November than McCain. It's his for the taking if he just executes it right.
I agree that Obama is in a better place now than McCain. I also think it's likely that he'll get a big bounce in the next week. Meanwhile, you have McCain announcing his vp on the Friday of Labor Day weekend when no one is paying attention to politics and it's also the day of his 72nd birthday.
Also, while I'd certainly prefer it if Obama were further ahead, for a non-incumbent, it's pretty typical to have tight races. With a core surrogate - the vp pick - Obama will be well equipped to hit McCain and promote the positive message.
Gore will be speaking next Thursday and if there's one thing he can say as a highly credible speaker is that it matters who gets elected.
Re: Open Thread
Looking at the overall state of the race and state by state polling it looks like we have a lot to do if were going to get Obama elected. And the reason is because of racism. Its simple. If he were Bayh or Biden he would be up by 10 points. DAMN!
Re: Amen
Amen & Kudos to nzubeck.
Here is one honest Democrat who understands reality.
No Politically Correct B.S.
If this was any mainstream white democrat, whether Bayh, Biden, Hillary, Bill, Al Gore or Chris Dodd - we would be winning by double digits today.
Is it fair ? Who said life was fair. That's reality. Racial bias is alive & real.
But our "idealistic" liberals refused to accept that.
Now we all pay the price
Re: Open Thread
And if he were Edwards, he'd be toast.
And if he were Hillary, the concern trolls would be whining about her lack of a Y chromosome.
Re: No VP Can Win it for Obama but Himself
When all this VP Excitement is over, it will still boil down 100% to no one but Sir Barack Obama.
He will win or lose in November based on himself.
All he can do is pick a VP who will not Hurt Him.
But to actually expect a VP to carry him or push him over the finish line will be asking way too much.
In a Very Close Race, Obama NEEDS Hillary more than ever. A Kaine or a Biden will not deliver a Ohio or Missouri. It will not ensure a win in PA.
In a Very Close race, only REGISTERED DEMOCRATS can push Obama over the finish line. HRC may not bring all of her solid supporters to vote for Obama, but she will certainly bring enough of them to close the deal in a close raceby being the VP.
But if McCain is up even by 5% or more by mid October, Hillary nor any VP cannot help Obama.
Yes, the Democratic Party will have to join Obama in either pulling off a victory or losing this election despite such an Huge Historical advantage never seen before.
While Harry Reid & Nancy Pelosi are virtually assured of a BIG NIGHT in November, the opposite is true for Obama.
This is the problem when you have a large group of idealistic liberals who were more concerned
about making some "Racial Historical Primary Victory" at the expense of very possibly losing the GE.
Where is the Youth voters? Where are the millions of New Black voters who would carry Obama in the GE ?
Obama could outspend McCain by 5 to 1 & he'd still be in a dogfight. That's how weak his candidacy is.
Re: No VP Can Win it for Obama but Himself
Most new voters aren't counted in traditional polling mediums due to most 30 and unders carry only cell phones. Barack is outspending McCain currently in only 1 key area, building his ground game to register new voters and spread out his forces to get his message out more than any commercial would. There is a great article by David Broder on this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/08/15/AR2008081503098. html
Re: No VP Can Win it for Obama but Himself
...such an Huge Historical advantage never seen before.
You've never heard of the Great Depression? Chill out on the melodrama.
And would it kill you to write in paragraphs? Or maybe just stop trolling altogether?
I've been saying this all along....
"Where is the Youth voters? Where are the millions of New Black voters who would carry Obama in the GE ?"
--Due to polling being only on land lines Obama's numbers I believe are vastly under performing due to the fact that most under 30's have cellphones. I think these polls are deceptive because of the fact that Obama has registered so many new voters and they don't show up on these polls. As far as your other assertions, pure fallacy.
Re: Open Thread
Pretty interesting article on what the heck Obama's been up to..
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?arti cle=its_his_party_08
Getting nervouser and nervouser
I'm hearing (from what little news I can stomach to watch) that this election is going to be a squeaker.
Folks, tin foil hat and all, Republicans can control the voting machines. All this talk of squeaker is just a precursor to the theft of this election.
Obama is no Messiah or FDR or JFK, but he IS the man for this time. Having been a Gore, then Clinton supporter, I was not thrilled with his success, but I concede that he is the nominee that the Democrats WILL and MUST support. I pity the man for he will inherit a God-awful mess, but he will surround himself with a support group, as all great leaders do, that will work to drag us from the jaws of Republican FUBAR.
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myDD - skin
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