AP: Democrats Have A "Realistic Shot" At 60 In The Senate

by Todd Beeton, Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 03:39:32 PM EDT

While most senate and house projections at this point err on the side of caution, a new AP article signals what may be an emerging conventional wisdom: that getting to 60 is absolutely within reach.

With President Bush's ratings at rock-bottom, fewer Republicans signing up to vote, and voters nationally gravitating toward Democrats in public polls, the GOP is bracing for defeats in November that will expand Democrats' now razor-thin 51-49 majority in the Senate.

Democrats have solid chances of winning five seats, according to strategists in both parties and public polls, and realistic shots at picking off another three to five Republican senators.

Has a pick-up of 10 seats, and with it a true Lieberman-less 60 vote majority, ever been described as "realistic" before?

This new boldness, which I suspect we'll see replicated elsewhere as CW solidifies, is no doubt a function of the recent indictment of Ted Stevens, which instantaneously made Mark Begich the favorite for the seat and Democrats on track to win 5 virtually at the starting gate. Those "solid" 5 are:

Mark Warner in Virginia
Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire
Tom Udall in New Mexico
Mark Udall in Colorado
Road to 60 candidate Mark Begich in Alaska

The 3-5 "realistic shots" according to USA Today (and general CW):

Jeff Merkley in Oregon
Road to 60 candidate Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi
Al Franken in Minnesota
Road to 60 candidate Kay Hagan in North Carolina
Tom Allen in Maine

And these lists don't even take into account our two other Road to 60 candidates: Rick Noriega in Texas and Jim Slattery in Kansas, or netroots favorite Scott Kleeb in Nebraska.

MyDD is going to be doing something special this year with our senate rankings, as well as our house, governor and presidential rankings so look for that probably just after the convention.

Tags: 2008 senate election, Road to 60 (all tags)

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12 Comments

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That's why the Obama campaign

is registering like mad people in those states that could give Dems a 60 majority.  That's why Obama camp is in Alaska, North Carolina, Virginia, etc.

This will all help down ticket Dems as well.

by puma 2008-08-17 03:51PM | 0 recs
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Re:

At this point I would have Democrats picking up 6 seats...the five already listed and then taking Smith's seat in Oregon. I think that pretty soon Smith wont be able to get by by claiming he's a Democrat much longer. Also when those voters go into their polling booth, they're going to see a big "R" next to his name.

Again things can change and we may have an even better chance at more seats as it gets closer to November so we'll see....but right now I have it at 6 seats.

by werd2406 2008-08-17 03:57PM | 0 recs
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I agree

I think we pick up 6, with an outside shot at 8. Then we hopefully kick out Liebeman.

by RandyMI 2008-08-17 04:40PM | 0 recs
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probably not a real option but

it would be great if we could replace all the DINO's at the same time so we could have a real majority. we all know Lieberman will betray us again at the first opportunity...

by zerosumgame 2008-08-17 03:59PM | 0 recs
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You forgot Begich is going to cream Ted Stevens

in Alaska

by Lefty Coaster 2008-08-17 04:03PM | 0 recs
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NO

NO NO NO. Even if we win all those seats, 60 assumes we keep Liebermann arounds, which I hope we do not.

by RandyMI 2008-08-17 04:37PM | 0 recs
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Re: NO
We can count Bernie Sanders (the guy's more liberal than any of the 49 actual Democratic Senators), but not Liebermann. That puts us currently at 50 - which means to get to a "true 60" - sans Liebermann - we need to pick up ten seats.

I want to believe in great things... but I just don't see that happening. Fivethirtyeight.com puts the odds of 61 (their figures INCLUDE Liebermann) at around 8%.



I'd love it if that happened, but it's going to require one of the biggest Election Day coups in US history to achieve that goal.
by Obamaphile 2008-08-17 10:39PM | 0 recs
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Re: AP: Democrats

In looking at 60 can I assume we are counting Bernie?

by nogo postal 2008-08-17 05:00PM | 0 recs
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Re: AP: Democrats

Kay Hagen looks great, good ads I saw while in NC over the weekend.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-08-17 05:11PM | 0 recs
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McCain Now Tied In Ohio

In todays PPP poll in Ohio McCain is now tied with Obama.

Last months PPP poll in Ohio had Obama UP 8 pts

The month before PPP in Ohio had Obama UP 11 pts.

PPP is a Democratic poll. This can only be described as a collapse and confirms Obama's severe weakening across the country.

Getting to 60 seats will be IMPOSSIBLE with a strong McCain showing in states like Minnesota, Mississippi, Louisiana, Colorado, and Oregon.

by oliver99 2008-08-17 05:59PM | 0 recs
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Democrats Have A "Realistic Shot"

And Andrew Rice in Oklahoma is a longshot, but apparently he is Chuck Schumer's favorite longshot -- unless that's Jim Martin in Georgia. Catch a wave.

by Woody 2008-08-17 06:24PM | 0 recs
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Democrats Have A "Realistic Shot"

Not to forget Larry LaRocco in Idaho, perhaps the luckiest politician in America this cycle. And Andrew Rice in Oklahoma is a longshot, but apparently he is Chuck Schumer's favorite longshot -- unless that's Jim Martin in Georgia. Catch a wave, yes, we can.

by Woody 2008-08-17 06:27PM | 0 recs

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