Past July 4th polls, past month visits (+Philly)
by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Jul 06, 2008 at 01:39:14 AM EDT
Politico David Kuhn lists the last Gallup polls taken around this period of time, 4 months prior to the election. With a poll ending July 2nd, Obama leads McCain 47 to 43 currently; here's the list:
2004: Kerry 46 percent - Bush 44 percent (Dates 6/21-6/23)
2000: Bush 45 percent - Gore 36 percent (Dates 6/23-6/25)
1996: Clinton 51 percent - Dole 35 percent (Dates 6/27-6/30)
1992: Bush 32 percent - Clinton 31 percent - Perot 28 percent (Dates 7/9-7/10)
1988: Dukakis 47 percent - Bush 41 percent (Dates 7/8-7/10)
1984: Reagan 50 percent - Mondale 40 percent (Dates 6/29-7/02)
1980: Reagan 40 percent - Carter 38 percent (Date 6/24)
1976: Carter 49 percent - Ford 28 percent (Date 6/22)
Despite the yawning gap, Gerald Ford almost pulled off the come-from-behind win. Gallup called it "the greatest comeback in the history of public-opinion polling." But Ford never escaped his pardon of Nixon, while Jimmy Carter repeatedly pledged, "I'll never lie," enough to give him the 2 percentage point win.
1972: Nixon 42 percent - McGovern 31 percent - Wallace 19 percent (Date 6/13)
1968: Humphrey 34 percent - Nixon 32 percent - Wallace 17 percent (Dates 6/26-7/01)
1964: Johnson 74 percent - Goldwater 19 percent (Dates 6/25 - 6/30)
1960: Kennedy 46 percent - Nixon 41 percent (Date 6/28)
Another Gallup poll, in mid-July, had John F. Kennedy looking even stronger, ahead by some 18 points. But Richard Nixon roared back and by mid-October, George Gallup refused to predict a winner: It was that close. Kennedy did indeed win, but by a mere .2 percent.
1956: Eisenhower 58 percent - Stevenson 36 percent (Date 7/10)
1952: Eisenhower 56 percent - Stevenson 34 percent (Date 7/10)
1948: Truman 40 percent - Dewey 39 percent (Date 7/14)
Another Gallup poll around the same time had Harry Truman up by three points. In an election year noted for its polling mistakes, Gallup later had Thomas Dewey at 49.5 percent the day before the election. But against all odds, Truman won by nearly five percentage points, 49.6 percent to Dewey's 45.1 percent.
I was looking through the WaPost candidate tracker over the last month, since the GE started on June 3rd, here's the days in the 'battleground' states that each candidate has visited:
Obama:
2 visits: MO, OH, MI, NH
1 visit: CO, ND, MT, MN, NV, NM, FL, WI, VA, PA
McCain:
3 visits: FL, PA
2 visits: LA, VA, OH
1 visit: NH, CT, NJ, MO, MN, NV
What's it tell us?
Obama is trying to broaden the map and isn't too worried about defending blue states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are exceptions, as is New Hampshire, Minnesota and Wisconsin, but less so. Other than those 7 days, it was 11 days campaigning in '04 red states, especially Missouri and Ohio, but also exotic Dem Pres. states like ND and MT.
McCain is a bit more on the defense, he's trying to lock down Florida early, and build a firewall in the the states of Virginia and Ohio. He's spent 11 days in '04 red states, and just 7 days in '04 blue states, mostly in Pennsylvania.
Speaking of Pennsylvania, the spur-of-the-moment mini-vacation is in the extended entry.
I've still got an old Treo for a few more days, so the photos are terrible, but here's the original Speaker of the House seat in Philly:
And here's Rocky:
OK, here's huffer and puffer (not really) about halfway up the steps humming in the video:
And have you been to the Eastern State penitentiary? That was a blast touring, we went on the "Escape" tour, which explores the 100 foot tunnel that was made to get out of jail free. The video I took of the baseball field is gawd-awful-- I'm due a new phone.
I was going to get a new Apple iphone, but think I'll go with the Instinct instead, just to stay with Sprint and away from Verizon. I lived through that disaster already once, and that's enough.
Tags: 2008 election (all tags)
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