House seat gain for Dems

Amy Walter, from National Journal, on the Democrats chances in the House:

At this point, we think the Democrats are poised to pick up 12 to 15 seats.

The NJ House rankings are here. The SwingStateReport has the 'power rankings' for the top 50 races.

A 15 seat gain would be tremendous for Democrats in the House in 2008. Going into the 2006 election, there were 202 Democrats and 232 Republicans and 1 Independent. Democrats won 31 seats in '06, and then have won seats in 3 special elections, to now hold a 236-199 advantage heading into the 2008 election.

Larry Sabato is saying a +8 to +14 D gain in the house too, for Democrats.

A 2008 gain of 14 seats would put the Democrats at 250 seats and the Republicans as 185 seats, a 33 seat advantage.

Not quite 1890, and the "NINETY LONE" shellacking, but pretty good.

Tags: Amy Walter, Larry Sabato (all tags)

Comments

18 Comments

Re: House seat gain for Dems

I would call a 250 to 185 lead a 65 seat advantage, even though a loss of 33 seats in a future election would result in a loss of control.  It's the common terminology.

by DaveG 2008-07-25 07:27AM | 0 recs
250 is the target I am looking at...

...as a successful cycle for the DCCC.

by conspiracy 2008-07-25 07:45AM | 0 recs
Campaign Diaries's projection

Campaign Diaries's latest House ratings of all the competitive races has Democrats picking up 17 seats: http://campaigndiaries.com/house

by LeftistAddiction 2008-07-25 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: House seat gain for Dems

Good. NOwthe Blog Birchers will have enve more of their own to eat.

by spirowasright 2008-07-25 08:09AM | 0 recs
Re: House seat gain for Dems

It's good that Sabato is predicting such a relatively small gain for Democrats. But I'm not going to be surprised if Democrats wind up with 300 seats in the House.

by Beren 2008-07-25 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: House seat gain for Dems

How about the Blue Dogs and Dinos? I only think we have a majority when we consistently can get democratic legislation passed.

by Carolyn in Baltimore 2008-07-25 08:18AM | 0 recs
out of it on health care

Here's what McCain said yesterday:

Pointing to a reporter on the bus with fair skin, McCain said it is critical to get suspect moles and blemishes checked out so they can be removed or treated to avoid major surgery and other problems.

"If you have a mark, go to your dermatologist. See your dermatologist every six months," he said.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/con tent/local_news/stories/2008/07/25/mccai n25.ART_ART_07-25-08_A1_39AREHR.html?sid =101

How many people have a dermatologist? And how many can just show up every 6 months to see her or him?

by politicsmatters 2008-07-25 08:25AM | 0 recs
Re: out of it on health care

Any one with a PPO or a referral from an HMO... I don't like McCain but you are REALLY stretching on this one.

by yitbos96bb 2008-07-25 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: out of it on health care

Ya need the stats of the tens of millions without either?

by nogo postal 2008-07-25 11:42AM | 0 recs
Good News and

With redistricting in the near horizon, next year and in 2010 we need to do well at the local level, too. If we do that, then 2012 could be a banner year for the Democrats and make progressives the dominant political force for many years to come.

by Zzyzzy 2008-07-25 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Good News and

We are going to lose 1-2 seats in PA in 2010 and unless things really turn around at the State Level it will be 1 or maybe even 2 Democrats.

In Ohio they are going to lose at least 1 Democrat.

I am not sure about other states, but I don't expect  re-districting to go well for us.

by JDF 2008-07-25 09:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Good News and

We're not going to lose democrat if we regain the house chamber in Columbus.  Redistricting can easily wipe out 2-3 republicans even if we have to take out a safe democratic district.

by LordMike 2008-07-25 02:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Good News and

I would love to see that. I am just repeating what I have heard from people involved in the state.

by JDF 2008-07-26 04:54PM | 0 recs
Debbie Cook Needs to be part of that majority
Dana Rohrabacher is facing Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook for California's 46th. Cook is a compelling candidate and will make a great representative. Donate to (actblue.com/page/LAforCook) and support Debbie Cook for Congress 46th District (DebbieCookforCongress.com) Help Retire Rohrabacher and Create an Effective Democratic Majority
by Active Activist 2008-07-25 09:31AM | 0 recs
Re: House seat gain for Dems

Here in Colorado...dumping Musgrave is our number #1
House priority..

Dr. Paccione would make a fine progressive Congresswoman

http://www.angiepaccione.com/

also important is re-electing Perlmutter from a Republican district..
http://perlmutter.house.gov/

A blue Colorado..
Led by Obama/Udall..Perlmutter..Paccione
can send a message to the Salazar brothers that they will not be safe in 2010 with their records as GOP enablers...

by nogo postal 2008-07-25 11:37AM | 0 recs
House Seat overview

DemConWatch has an overview of a number of different House projections. The current projections average out to a gain of 6.7 seats.

by msn1 2008-07-25 05:02PM | 0 recs
1890

HOLY SHIT.  First: wow, the New York Times has archived articles from 1890!  When I first looked at the date, I thought it must be a joke -- I didn't think the NYT was online yet in 1890.  But it apparently was released on .pdf instead, which makes more sense for the time period.  Though I could have sworn that computers weren't as widespread before the 1970's or so, which is a good 80 years after that.  The New York Times has always been a visionary newspaper, I guess, publishing electronically before the discovery of the electron.

But HOLY SHIT.  A 151-seat majority.  90 seats in the minority.  Small Congress?  NO!  241 Democrats to 90 Republicans!  HOW THE HELL DID THAT HAPPEN?  No wonder Benjamin Harrison was voted out!

by mauro7inf 2008-07-25 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: House seat gain for Dems

As long as one of them is Dina Titus over Jon Porter, NV-3.

The netroots all but ignored NV-3 and Tessa Hafen until it was too late in '06. Let's not let it happen again.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-07-25 11:48PM | 0 recs

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