OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley Up Over Smith Within MOE

by Todd Beeton, Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:06:22 AM EDT

A new Rasmussen Reports poll of the Oregon senate race (500 LVs, July 15, MOE +/- 4.5%) shows Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley with the momentum against faux moderate Bush enabler Sen. Gordon Smith. This represents a phenomenal net gain of 11 points for Merkley since Rasmussen's June 11 poll (June numbers in parentheses.)

Jeff Merkley 43 (38)
Gordon Smith 41 (47)

41% is a new low for Smith in this poll and represents the 5th straight month that he has been under 50%. Smith does a little better once leaners are added, tying Merkley 46%-46%, which may indicate that Smith has lost some support among Republicans as he's sought to portray himself as a moderate, hardly distinct from Merkley on major issues.

Merkley has made great gains in favorability over the past month. Whereas in June, Smith was viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 38% and Merkley was at 42% favorable, 38% unfavorable, now it's 53/45 for Smith and 51/34 for Merkley. Looks like in Oregon, the more people get to know Merkley, the more they like him and the more Smith pretends to be a Democrat, the more they decide they prefer the real thing.

To help Jeff Merkley build on this momentum, show him some love over at Act Blue.

Update [2008-7-16 14:20:58 by Todd Beeton]:Rasmussen Reports also finds Barack Obama holding onto a comfortable lead over John McCain in Oregon, 46%-37%.

Update [2008-7-16 14:54:37 by Jonathan Singer]: I think we realizing more and more why Smith decided to knife his good friend John McCain (who was an early and ardent supporter of) in the back by running ads trying to tie himself to Barack Obama...

Tags: Gordon Smith, Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen (all tags)

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13 Comments

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Re: OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley Up Over Smith Within MOE

This is great news, putting another senate seat squarely in play.

by pollbuster 2008-07-16 10:13AM | 0 recs
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I was wondering

When the polls would catch up to perception.  Smith is by no means done, but this poll is quite encouraging.  

I guess Smith's "I'm with Obama" add didn't work as well as he had hoped.

by NewOaklandDem 2008-07-16 10:23AM | 0 recs
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The key number here is Smith's

What matters at this stage is not the head-to-head numbers, but whether or not the incumbent's support is under 50%. In 2006, almost every Republican incumbent who was polling under 50% in June-July lost.

With Smith at 46%, he's very beatable.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-07-16 10:28AM | 0 recs
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Re: OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley Up Over Smith Within MOE

It's a great day here at Merkley HQ! I have a permanent smile on my face right now.

We have a real shot to take this seat and replace Smith with a strong progressive Dem. So, even though we're ahead in this poll...the race is very close. We need all the help from the netroots we can get to ensure that Merkley beats Smith.

by Sarah Lane 2008-07-16 10:36AM | 0 recs
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a long way to go, but

this is fantastic news.

One of the toughest things for a challenger is establishing that he or she has a real chance to win. Now that cannot be disputed about Merkley.

There are many Senate seats I'd like to take this year, but this is near the very top of my list, because it's one we could probably hold easily for a long time (which you can't necessarily say about MS or NE or some of our other targets).

by desmoinesdem 2008-07-16 12:08PM | 0 recs
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Current Senate Rankings

Red to Blue:

1. Virginia

  1. New Mexico
  2. Colorado
  3. New Hamphsire
  4. Alaaska
  5. Oregon
  6. Mississppi B
  7. Minnesota
  8. North Carolina
  9. Kentucky

Blue to Red:

1. Louisiana

by RandyMI 2008-07-16 10:44AM | 0 recs
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Re: Current Senate Rankings

Nah Landrieu will win.

by conspiracy 2008-07-16 10:50AM | 0 recs
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Re: Current Senate Rankings

exactly... this is a ranking and the only one to even get ranked for the gop is one they arent going to win.

by falseintellect 2008-07-16 11:03AM | 0 recs
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Re: Current Senate Rankings

I agree, but I'll add Maine at #11. That one is not done yet.

Also, you gotta admit that Landrieu is still the favorite in LA. She's not clear by any means, but favored would be accurate me thinks.

At a minimum, I think our pick up list goes up to (and includes) #6-#8.

As for this race, I say Merckley is going to win based only on the fact that he's a democrat, in a democratic state, in a democratic year. THis is an Obama coat tail state if the Merckley and Obama campaigns chose for it to be (as in they need appearances together, Obama cuts and add for Jeff, etc.). Coat tails do not occur just because.

by Trowaman 2008-07-16 10:56AM | 0 recs
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Re: OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley Up Over Smith Within MOE


Good news.  That's the normal trajectory...voters hold to an incumbent until a few months or weeks before the election, and it's rationally inexplicable given the information, behavior, betrayals, a good challenger, etc.

But then there's a fairly rapid softening a few months or weeks before the election even though nothing has changed.  It's as if the voters were simply teasing the incumbent along to cater to them, and then kick him overboard in the short period where he can't do them any harm.

I wish Coleman and Collins do a similar slide into the low forties fairly soon.  I can't figure out why they're holding up.  (Yeah, I've heard the rationalizations, but those don't seem to touch on the real reason to me.)

by killjoy 2008-07-16 11:12AM | 0 recs
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Coleman is holding on

because Minnesota Democrats were dumb enough to nominate the only candidate who could possibly lose to him.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-07-16 11:25AM | 0 recs
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I thought the netroots made a mistake

to latch onto Franken in the primary. I don't get involved in other states' primaries unless one candidate is either clearly more progressive or clearly more electable. That didn't seem to be the case in MN.

by desmoinesdem 2008-07-16 12:09PM | 0 recs
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Re: OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley Up Over Smith Within MOE

This is SO great for the Merkley campaign!!

I agree with commenters above that the real gold mine here is the Smith snide.  Voter dissatisfaction with the GOP here in Oregon is an anvil for Gordon Smith--and now that there are issue ads on the air with Merkley, his introduction to the general electorate is underway.

Very good day for Jeff.

by carla 2008-07-16 11:20AM | 0 recs

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