Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Latest Ohio Polling

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 07:06:28 PM EDT

SurveyUSA was in the field in Ohio earlier this week, and the results among likely voters look like this:

John McCain (R): 46 percent
Barack Obama (D): 48 percent

With this new poll in the mix, the Pollster.com trend estimate puts Barack Obama up 46.1 percent to 42.7 percent; the Real Clear Politics poll average puts Obama up 47.3 percent to 43.8 percent; and Five Thirty Eight projects a 4.4 percentage point victory for Obama in the state. In other words, the race in the state is tight -- though Obama appears to have a narrow, though noticeable, edge currently.

What does the map look like if Obama is indeed able to pull off a victory in Ohio? The path to victory for John McCain becomes significantly more tenuous. A win in Ohio brings 20 electoral votes, meaning that if Obama can carry the state in November and can keep the Kerry states in the Democratic column-- and he now leads in each of them, according to averages of polling from the states -- he would win the White House. Tack on states like Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Virginia -- additional states that George W. Bush carried in 2004 that Pollster.com now shows Obama leading in -- as well as the handful of other red states Obama is clearly competitive in, and all the sudden the map looks a lot less like a 50/50 split and a lot more like, well, something entirely different.

Tags: OH-Pres, Ohio, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

21 Comments

Sort by

permalink

Re: Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Latest Ohio

The funny thing is, he doesn't even need to win Ohio. Kerry states plus VA and NM = win. Kerry states plus VA and IA = win. Kerry states plus MO and IA = win. Kerry states plus IA, CO and NM = win.

He is set up so much better than Kerry ever was.

by deepee 2008-06-27 07:56PM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Latest Ohio

I wouldn't want to be McCain right now, that's for sure. My friends and I spend most of our time now trying to game out a good strategy that we would use if we were in McCain's war room. Its a lot of fun and hard as hell sometimes.

by Xris 2008-06-27 08:00PM | 0 recs

permalink

All McCain has to do is

hold all the red states except for NM and IA. He can lose those two. He just has to hold the rest of the states that Bush won, and he's in the WH.

by enthusiast 2008-06-27 09:58PM | 0 recs

permalink

If Obama wins Ohio, it's all over for McCain

Basically, McCain HAS to win Ohio, and Obama ALMOST has to win Ohio, though there are slightly more unlikely or equally likely alternatives like CO and VA and IN and MO and FL for Obama.

by enthusiast 2008-06-27 10:47PM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Latest Ohio

Good luck I can't imagine unless Obama has an affair with Scarlett and he still might win

by Politicalslave 2008-06-27 11:55PM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Latest Ohio

Tough choice!

by conspiracy 2008-06-28 03:30AM | 0 recs

permalink

he doesn't need Ohio, but he almost needs it

True, we could get CO or VA, but it has been decades since either of those states voted Democratic for Prez.

Our lead in Ohio has almost disappeared according to the most recent polls. I would call it a statistical dead heat.

Even the new Ohio poll relies on a 12 point registration edge for Dems in Ohio - doesn't that seem a bit optimistic? The earlier and more optimistic poll gave the dems a 17 point registration edge. We all know Ohio is a red state in Presidential elections, or a purple red state. Obama might be ahead, but I think if the election were held today, McCain might win it by 10,000 votes.

by enthusiast 2008-06-27 09:53PM | 0 recs

permalink

Iowa and NM are almost irrelevant now.

Obama almost HAS to win these two states, unless he wins OH, PA, and MI, and if he wins those 3, then he doesn't need IA or NM or NH (yes, 1 or 2 of them, but not all three).

What Obama needs right now is CO, OH, or VA, or IN, MO, states with at least 9 EVs.

If we lose Iowa or NM, I think the election's over. We need them both, and we need to take another red state.

by enthusiast 2008-06-27 09:56PM | 0 recs

permalink

CO and VA (and VT)

Just because a state hasn't voted for a Dem in decades, I wouldn't take that to mean anything for this election. It wasn't so long ago Vermont hadn't ever elected a Democratic Senator (Leahy's still the only one)...until 1992, it had voted Democratic in just one election (LBJ).

I suspect Colorado may already be ours to defend (the polling there recently has seemed remarkably consistent and reflective of the actual mood and i think it's no small thing that salazar still won in the unfavorable year of 2004). Virginia would be harder to pull off.

My most conservative guess is we're defending 273 ev's to their 265 (and ohio is likely at worst a push and something's happening in indiana), but their states will be much easier to peel off than ours...in any case it seems pretty clear, the 'Pubs start off playing defense.

by thurst 2008-06-29 06:34AM | 0 recs

permalink

he's more likely to win OH than VA

so it really is almost a must win. OH was much closer than VA, and the economy matters more to those voters than in Virginia. Obama cannot afford to lose in Ohio. If he does, he can still win, but its much harder. That is why he shouldn't waste his time in alaska. Missouri could also be hard because while a lot of blacks will vote, the middle and the west of the state is likely to be strong McCain. If they get a good turnout, and some white backlash could arise, much of Missouri is very country redneck, McCain could get the state. I think Obama should win Iowa no trouble.

by Lakrosse 2008-06-27 10:58PM | 0 recs

permalink

cross tabs

according to he cross tabs hispanics make up 1% of the electorate, and mccain wins them 90%-10%. that does not seem... uncrappified, (or accurate, for you english majors).

by Doug Tuttle 2008-06-27 08:26PM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: cross tabs

1% is actually about right. Ohio doesn't have very many Hispanic people. That small of a population and only 600 people sampled (in total), and the data for that group is going to be crap.

by Whash 2008-06-27 09:01PM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: cross tabs

in 2004, Latinos made up 3% of the voters in OH according to exit polling. So take that with a grain of salt. Ohio's 2006 Latino population was at 2.3% of the state's total count.

by alex100 2008-06-27 10:29PM | 0 recs

permalink

Not gonna happen

Just a hunch, but I do not think Obama will win Ohio. The socially conservative art of the state will go heavily for McCain, as it did for Bush in 2004.

by Ignored and Disgusted 2008-06-28 05:05AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Not gonna happen

It will be nice when you are shown to be completely wrong.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-28 06:23AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Not gonna happen

you should wait for the election results to be smug. just a suggestion.

by Ignored and Disgusted 2008-07-01 10:23AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Latest Ohio

SEE THIS SUSA poll is more believable... I'm sorry but I don't buy the recent SUSA polls in MN and MO that have Obama and McCain tied among 18-34 year olds. NO CHANCE IN HELL that happens. I think MO is a lot closer than that poll shows, Obama is up in MN by a decent amound and Ohio is dead on and will be close.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-28 06:20AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Latest Ohio

McCain HAS to win every one of the following states: Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, and Nevada. Obama only needs to win one of them, assuming he takes back Iowa and New Mexico (he currently polls comfortably ahead in both).

by Skaje 2008-06-28 06:52AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Ohio

I'm just glad I'll be moving to Ohio soon where my vote will actually mean something (although statistically speaking it is still insignificant).

by goodleh 2008-06-28 09:40AM | 0 recs

permalink

Re: Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Latest Ohio

So, am I reading this correctly that the poll suggests that McCain leads Obama amongst Hispanic voters 90% to 10%? Hard to fathom.

by ira500 2008-06-28 02:35PM | 0 recs

permalink

Obama Up Within Margin of Error in Ohio

Am I reading this right, that the Ohio poll suggests McCain leads Obama amongst Hispanic voters 90% to 10%? I don't think Roberto Clemente would even poll 90%.

by ira500 2008-06-28 02:37PM | 0 recs