When Is A Battleground State No Longer A Battleground State?
by Todd Beeton, Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 07:11:00 AM EDT
Quinnipiac University, The Washington Post and The Wall St. Journal have released their new "Battleground State" polls and, well, let's just say they might need to redefine their terms. Certainly by 2004 standards, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota would be classic battleground states. Colorado went for Bush 52-47, Michigan went for Kerry 51-48, Minnesota went for Kerry 51-48 and Wisconsin barely went for Kerry 50-49.
We're not in 2004 anymore.
Colorado(1351 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.7%)
Michigan(1411 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.6%)
Minnesota(1572 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.5%)
Wisconsin(1537 LVs, June 17-24, MOE +/- 2.5%)
Obama is overperforming Kerry in Colorado by 10%, in Michigan by 3%, in Minnesota by 14% and in Wisconsin by 12%. The keys: Obama wins independents in every single state (by double digits in three of them) and holds onto 2004 Kerry voters much better than McCain holds onto Bush voters.
If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times, the least Obama will do...should do...this year is hold onto Kerry states. If pollsters want to test true battlegrounds in 08, they'd be well-advised to put polls into the field in states that went for Bush in 04 such as Virginia and Ohio, certainly moreso than some of the tight Kerry states such as Minnesota and Wisconsin.