The Final Countdown?

A lot of tea leaf reading today, but have to say, the convergence of several clues certainly seems to be pointing to a Clinton exit sooner rather than later.

First you have an astoundingly off-message Tom Vilsack:

Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor and a national co-chairman of Clinton's campaign, said Sunday: "It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee. After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."

You also have the report of the e-mail that went out to advance staff indicating the end to campaign events:

An email went out to all advance staffers of Sen. Hillary Clinton telling them there are no events on the candidate's schedule beyond Wednesday remarks at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference.

The email told staffers this was not goodbye but there were no plans beyond Wednesday for now.

And Ben Smith paints a fuller picture of Hillary's event tomorrow night:

...Clinton's event in New York appears to be something a bit bigger than a minor election night in two small states she's likely to lose might suggest.

The venue she's booked, at Baruch College, is quite large.

And Clinton's finance director, Jonathan Mantz, sent an email out to top donors inviting them to the event, of which I've obtained a copy.

Add to that this report from Marc Ambinder:

Clinton Campaign staffers and former campaign staffers are being urged by the Clinton campaign's finance department to turn in their outstanding expense receipts by the end of the week. That's a sign, to them, that the campaign wants to get its affairs in order soon. If Clinton were staying in the race, there'd be no real reason to collect these receipts now; she'd still be raising and spending money from the same primary campaign account. The campaign is in arrears to the tune of about $11 million.

Although Ambinder also reports some pushback by the Clinton campaign against the speculation that she'll concede tomorrow night:

Senior Clinton campaign aides privy to the construction of tomorrow night's election night celebration in New York insist that Sen. Clinton will not use the occasion to drop out of the race.

They project that Clinton will do better than expected in South Dakota, losing by a margin of less than ten points; they project a sizable loss in Montana.

It sounds to me as though tomorrow night will be more last hurrah than concession but it's sure sounding as though we're in for a concession of some sort this week. I know it will be bittersweet for many here (in fact, more bitter than sweet) but think of what a historic moment her endorsement of Barack Obama will be, certainly a dramatic end to such a dramatic and historic campaign.

Update [2008-6-2 16:11:45 by Todd Beeton]:Suspend not concede?

Hillary Clinton has summoned top donors and backers to attend her New York speech tomorrow night in an unusual move that is being widely interpreted to mean she plans to suspend her campaign and endorse Barack Obama.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

47 Comments

As a curiousity...

Would she be doing the exact same thing, if she was debating doing an independent run? Since, she wouldn't be running in the primary anymore, but rather would be running as an independent?

by MarvinMouse 2008-06-02 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

No. If she were contemplating running as an indepedent, she would be a parody troll. Hillary is a Democrat. She won't turn her back on the party. Hello? It's the real world.

by catilinus 2008-06-02 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

I'm just wondering if her behaviour would be the same. She's surprised me time and again this primary season. At this point, I have no clue what's going to happen anymore.

by MarvinMouse 2008-06-02 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

It is to late for her to register in states

by Hillarywillwin 2008-06-02 12:53PM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

"She's in it to win it!"

An independent run would not achieve that goal, put her into further debt, and kill any chance at 2012.

She's convinced that Obama will lose in the fall, so her best bet is to support him hard (so she won't get blamed) and run the "I told you so" campaign in 2012.

Of course, she thought she'd have the nomination sewed up on February 5th as well, so I wouldn't put too much faith in her predictions.

Barack Obama beat a way tougher candidate this primary season than he will this November.  Of course, even when he becomes president, she can still run a spoiler campaign in 2012 like Ted Kennedy did in 1980.

So, she has plenty of options.... independent candidate is not one of them.

by LordMike 2008-06-02 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

Before the Lieberman/Lamont fiasco of the 2006 elections, I would have never thought a Democrat would run against their own party for a seat. Especially a Democrat who was the VP Candidate with Gore in 2000.

At this point I simply don't know what to expect anymore, so I try to keep all possibilities on the table, no matter how improbable.

by MarvinMouse 2008-06-02 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

It is one thing to run as an independent in a state a small as CT, quite another to run a national campaign.  Not going to happen.

by gchaucer2 2008-06-02 11:45AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

Someone over at DailyKos (apparently known to people here as the "orange devil"?) dealt with this for me. Apparently, it's way too late for her to get her name on most of the ballots, so basically, she'd have to run a write-in campaign, and that would be pointless.

I guess I can take this possibility off the table firmly now.

by MarvinMouse 2008-06-02 11:47AM | 0 recs
and many states have "sore loser" laws

In many states (not Connecticut), the loser of a primary is not permitted on the ballot in the general election.

by Joe Buck 2008-06-02 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: and many states have "sore loser"

This is interesting. I would love to learn more about this. Which states have these laws?

by MarvinMouse 2008-06-02 11:54AM | 0 recs
and many states have "sore loser" laws

Apparently those don't apply to presidential candidates.

by thezzyzx 2008-06-02 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

Lieberman has a lot of Republican support, since he was essentially one of them, and their own candidate was a joke.

She would not get that level of support in this election, with the Republican party going all out on McCain and even spiteful hard right republicans would probably not vote for her as a protest.

by LordMike 2008-06-02 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

should be "all out FOR McCain"

by LordMike 2008-06-02 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: As a curiousity...

All I can say to this comment is "wow". Just wow.

by 1arryb 2008-06-02 12:40PM | 0 recs
Per CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Most of the seventeen Democratic senators who have remained uncommitted throughout the primaries will endorse Barack Obama for president this week, CNN has learned.

Sources familiar with discussions between Obama supporters and these senators tell CNN's Gloria Borger that the senators will wait until after the South Dakota and Montana primaries to announce their support for Obama.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/200 8/06/02/sources-most-uncommitted-senator s-to-endorse-obama/

by SpanishFly 2008-06-02 11:33AM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

Admit it Todd you just want to see her grovel and fawn all over Obama like you folks do. Pathetic.

by Iceblinkjm 2008-06-02 11:33AM | 0 recs
fair and balanced? (not in a Fox way)

I think that Todd's commentaries over the course of the last couple of months have been pretty objective.

In fact, while it was pretty clear that Jerome supported Clinton and Jonathon supports Obama, I wouldn't be eager to make a bet about which horse Todd had his money on.

by emptythreatsfarm 2008-06-02 11:38AM | 0 recs
Re: fair and balanced? (not in a Fox way)
Agreed. I thought Todd had stated a preference for Clinton (could be wrong about that), but his comments have been quite balanced and as objective as any I've seen out there.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-06-02 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: fair and balanced? (not in a Fox way)

He's a Clinton supporter, but an admirably fair one.

by DPW 2008-06-02 11:45AM | 0 recs
Re: fair and balanced? (not in a Fox way)

"I know it will be bittersweet for many here (in fact, more bitter than sweet) but think of what a historic moment her endorsement of Barack Obama will be, certainly a dramatic end to such a dramatic and historic campaign."

I take issue with this comment due to the recent ruling of the Rules committee and Obama's own behavior. I don't think she owes him anything nor do I as a democrat and a Hillary Clinton supporter.

by Iceblinkjm 2008-06-02 11:45AM | 0 recs
You both have a choice

You can help McCain get elected, or you can help Obama get elected.

And as Edmund Burke said, "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

If you support Hillary Clinton because of her stands on major issues, then you must realize that Barack Obama shares almost all of those stands, and John McCain shares almost none of them.

I fully expect Hillary Clinton to help Barack Obama win.  She's a loyal Democrat.

by Joe Buck 2008-06-02 11:55AM | 0 recs
Hillary will be doing what's best for Hillary

Hillary is not going to support Obama and bust her ass campaigning for him because she owes him anything. She is going to do it because she sees it as being in her own best interests. It will allow her to maintain what she has built in the primaries and move forward as a force to be reckoned with in the party with all options open. The alternative would end her career and be political suicide.

by hankg 2008-06-02 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

Whatever else happens She is not going to run as an independent. I'd bet my next paycheck on that.

by notedgeways 2008-06-02 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

If Obama reaches 2,118 some time this week, I think Hillary should then endorse Obama as the Party's Nominee in a joint appearence with Obama.

Democrats need to keep our eyes on the prize next November.

by Lefty Coaster 2008-06-02 11:35AM | 0 recs
Well, there's also this report...

... from Tom Edsall:

Hillary Clinton has summoned top donors and backers to attend her New York speech tomorrow night in an unusual move that is being widely interpreted to mean she plans to suspend her campaign and endorse Barack Obama.

Obama and Clinton spoke Sunday night and agreed that their staffs should begin negotiations over post-primary activities, according to reliable sources. In addition to seeking Obama's help in raising money to pay off some $20 million-plus in debts, Clinton is known to want Obama to assist black officials who endorsed her and who are now taking constituent heat, including, in some cases, primary challenges from pro-Obama politicians.

[...]

Earlier in the day it was reported that Clinton staffers were being urged by the campaign's finance department "to turn in their outstanding expense receipts by the end of the week," another sign that the run at the White House was nearing an end. In addition, Politico wrote that members of Clinton's advance staff had received calls and emails Sunday night, summoning them to New York City and telling them their roles on the campaign are ending.

Why do you call for all the expense reports to be in by the end of the week if the end of the week doesn't reflect a significant change in circumstance?

by tbetz 2008-06-02 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

If HRC does endorse this week, it'll go a long way to showing up everyone who thinks (as I do) that she has been campaigning for the last two months as a kind of denial filled, pesronal power trip.

Show me up HRC.

by MNPundit 2008-06-02 11:38AM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

I expect an official endorment ceremony is coming sometime next week, but it wouldn't shock me if it comes as early as this week either. I'm guession it will be either somewhere in Pennsyvania or Ohio.

by Christopher Lib 2008-06-02 11:40AM | 0 recs
Sweet!

and long overdue.

by NM Ward Chair 2008-06-02 11:40AM | 0 recs
It looks that way.

Then we will see who is on which side of the party line.

It will be interesting to see what sort of diaries and comments result in penalities on MyDD afterwards.  So many (even today) are direct attacks on the presumptive Democrat nominee, TexasDarlin is a blogroll reference for GOP attack blogs, Jerome himself has taken to tinderbox shark jumping.

Thanks for the moderate diary, Todd.  Look forward to campaigning with you Wednesday.

-chris

by chrisblask 2008-06-02 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: It looks that way.

If you recall in 2000, there was a minority of people who were so pissed at Al Gore for conceding when it was clear Bush was not a legitimate winner that they never forgave him.  

If some of her supporters are actually buying the conspiracy theory about Obama stealing the nomination in the rules committee, you could see the same thing when she drops out.

That is the danger of using such a silly argument.  I suspect we will see at least one such diary from the hard core Clinton supporters, but most will quickly come around to Obama.  How can you go to McCain out of spite when Clinton herself is telling you to go to Obama, especially since I rate it as extremely likely she gets the VP slot if she wants it.

by libertyleft 2008-06-02 11:49AM | 0 recs
People calm down after a while

I remember back in February, when there were lots of online Edwards supporters screaming about how they could never vote for either Obama or Clinton. After about a month, you hardly ever heard that.

by Joe Buck 2008-06-02 12:00PM | 0 recs
I am still pissed off at Gore

1 - for conceeding too early

2 - for not running this year.

I would have taken him over Sen. Clinton (but not in retrospect Sen. Obama) but he chooses to sit on the sidelines without comment.  Not impressed, his party and his country may well have needed him.

-chris

by chrisblask 2008-06-02 12:26PM | 0 recs
Hopefully the fact that Hillary has accomplished

so much will not always be drowned out in so many hearts and minds by the fact that she didn't win the nomination.  I am an Obama supporter, but I will always be grateful to Hillary for what her career, thus far, has meant to the world in which my children will grow up, particularly for my daughter.  Yes, the nomination and likely subsequent presidency would have been a first for women, but not attaining it doesn't undo everything else that she has done.  My daughter's life will be improved because Hillary has served.  So will my son's.

She's not done yet.  What if she gets a cabinet post or goes on to become the first female to lead the senate?  What if it is Hillary's bill that eventually reaches Barack's desk in the Oval Office to be signed providing health insurance for all?

by lockewasright 2008-06-02 11:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Hopefully the fact that Hillary has. . .

One thing that both candidates have accomplished, for which we should all be grateful without quibble or qualification.

Each of them has demonstrated that a person of color/a woman can mount and prosecute a first class campaign for President which attracts record numbers of voters, record numbers of new voters in groups not previously so represented, amounts of money the Republicans only dream of, organizational structures which work wonderfully, and all of the other aspects of a first class campaign, something which was not thought before to be possible for a candidate of either group, has gotten people who would never have thought of voting for 'one of those' to vote for 'one of those.' That the race has drawn forth a certain number of the incredibly obnoxiously mouthy is not a surprise. The joy is that such people are in the vast minority, and that most supporters of both sides are prepared with a period of adjustment to go forward together.  

For years, the mutter against all such candidates has been that he/she couldn't do that. Well, both did that this year, in the same year. Both with courage and dignity and intelligence. There have been no meltdowns, no failures to be able to mount or prosecute the campaign. To the very end, both are with heads high and decent supporters in attendance.

This door now opened for both cannot, I think, be slammed again and the old ways return, for either group, or any third group, such as Latinos with Bill Richardson or another, as well. This is a gift both campaigns have given us which is not subject to partisan dispute (Republicans spitting unhappily from the sidelines excluded.)

For this development, I am endlessly grateful.

by Christy1947 2008-06-02 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Hopefully the fact that Hillary has. . .

amen.

by lockewasright 2008-06-02 01:42PM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

I'll believe it when I see and hear it.  She probably should have dropped out after Wisconsin.

Better late than never, though.

by megaplayboy 2008-06-02 11:43AM | 0 recs
It will be nice to have a nominee

...at least in terms of stopping all of the infighting and letting us focus on defeating McCain.  The whole thing was so frustrating because the two candidates disagreed more on methods than the actual goal they were trying to achieve.

I can't imagine that any Clinton supporters are feeling good right now as close losses are harder to get over.  Here's hoping we'll be working together soon.

by thezzyzx 2008-06-02 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

I thought this was a post on the tv show "Arrested Development".  

by jakedecker 2008-06-02 11:52AM | 0 recs
Didn't you get my note?

by libertyleft 2008-06-02 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Didn't you get my note?

You just made my day.  Thanks.

by jakedecker 2008-06-02 12:13PM | 0 recs
If she is gracious

it could go a long way towards clearing the air and putting the joint ticket back into the realm of possibility.

by Jon Niola 2008-06-02 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

"According to CNN's Candy Crowley, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will remain uncommitted until Clinton officially drops out of the race."

Typical spinelessness from Reid.
Clinton's tenacity would be well applied as Senate Majority Leader, though getting the rest of the Seante to agree to that would not be easy, since she is relatively junior.  

But Christ, Reid is a fucking wimp.  I would love to see him go.

by haystax calhoun 2008-06-02 12:12PM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

He really is.

by lockewasright 2008-06-02 01:44PM | 0 recs
Damn

I think if Hillary does end this gracefully, I will have to start being magnanimous to her supporters again.  Ok, I guess the black hat did not really suit me that well anyway.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-06-02 12:22PM | 0 recs
Her event

Is located at Baruch College.  If that's not telling, I don't know what is.

by semiquaver 2008-06-02 02:06PM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

Look it is only a matter of time until Obama is the nominee - I have thought that for quite some time, even when others still felt that Clinton could achieve the nom (although screamed illogically for her to get out of the race @@).  The first question, for me will be can I choke on having to vote for this man, knowing how devastating the GOP can & will be? Like I said I tried prior to the NJ primary to like him & the more I learned the more I grew to firmly DISLIKE him. To top it off I would have been more comfortable with other candidates (nay I would have actually LIKED other candidates <---note the plural) & I really can't formulate an honest argument in his favor, except to say "he isn't Republican & McCain." At the same time with SC at stake I feel the personal obligation to vote for him & pray to God I am wrong about his chances in the G/E AND more importantly his ability. But in all honesty I am not sure it is a pill I can choke on - I will say the fact that Clinton will probably (in my opinion) not even be asked to be VP just finishes off the way his campaign has treated her which has only cemented my firm dislike.  The audacity this man & his campaign exhibits by NOT recognizing what she would bring to his campaign & how she could help him govern (b/c I  think he overestimates his capability) I find personally repugnant.

by jrsygrl 2008-06-02 02:08PM | 0 recs
Re: The Final Countdown?

If some of her supporters are actually buying the conspiracy theory about Obama stealing the nomination in the rules committee, you could see the same thing when she drops out.

by anasky123 2008-06-26 11:01PM | 0 recs

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