Getting 60 & Stability in the Senate

In RollCall, Schumer predicts a pick-up up to 11 seats, that Harry Reid will remain as Majority Leader, and that he (Schumer) could remain at the helm of the DSCC for a 3rd term:

...Schumer's prognostications, delivered in a wide-ranging interview with Roll Call reporters and editors, turned more ambiguous when it came to his own future as an ambitious two-term Senator and No. 3 party leader. Schumer has left his options wide open to include a third, unprecedented term at the helm of the DSCC or another opportunity within the Senate leadership lineup.

And when the discussion shifted to whether Reid is secure in his re-election and as the chamber's No. 1 Democrat, Schumer steadfastly defended his Nevada ally, but also took the chance to turn the spotlight on his next move.

"I love Harry Reid. We are like brothers," Schumer said. "We've been in a foxhole together. In a Democratic caucus that runs the gamut, he brings us a unity -- and not just any unity. ... He's extremely popular within our caucus. He's a great listener. He has the right blend of trying to accommodate the individual needs of Members, but at the same time understanding that sometimes you have to do things for the greater good.

"I think he's going to run in 2010. I think he loves his job. And I hope he does" run again, Schumer said, as he pivoted to his own future. "I'm very happy with my role in the Senate. ... I wake up Monday morning, and I love going to work. As long as that stays, I'm staying where I am."


On the prospects:
Democrats believe they have a shot at winning as many as 11 GOP-controlled Senate seats this fall, with Schumer predicting the best shot at five -- Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado and Alaska. Schumer cited Minnesota, Oregon and North Carolina as the next group of states for possible Democratic pickups, and three longer shots in the states of Mississippi, Maine and Kentucky, the latter of which is home to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R).

"That's just where the snapshot is now," Schumer explained.

You could make the case for any of these 11 seats, and probably a couple of others as well. The prospects do look terrific.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Comments

42 Comments

Re: Getting 60 & Stability in the Senate

I hope Harry Reid is still not Majority Leader, he has been quite Ineffective.

by Bobby Obama 2008-06-13 07:45AM | 0 recs
stability
I think he is a walking gaffe.
He needs to be a little more careful when he speaks...
by gil44 2008-06-13 08:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 & Stability in the Sen

He's been more effective than people give him credit for.  He was a majority leader with a minority (with Lieberman and Nelson being effective republicans), and yet, he managed to get all 49 votes to stay in line when necessary (and get a couple republicans to boot for a simple majority).  Compare that to Nancy Pelosi, who couldn't even get majority votes most of the time.

People blame him for not getting 60 votes, which is ridiculous...  While I think that he could have been a bit tougher on Republicans, he really hasn't done poorly considering his uncomfortable circumstances.

Majority leader isn't easy... Just ask Bill Frist.

Still, I do wonder how Reid's stroke may have affected him, though... there are a lot of times where he seems lost.  I think there is certainly room for improvement, but, I still think that he doesn't deserve the scorn he's been given.

by LordMike 2008-06-13 09:14AM | 0 recs
Reid is useless

If we don't get 60 (not including Lieberman), I don't want Reid anywhere near the Majority Leader position.

His speak-softly-but-don't-carry-any-stick-a t-all tactics have gravely hurt public perception of the Senate.  He needs to force the Republicans to actually filibuster and be shown as the obstructionists they are.

Further, I think we'll pick up 5-7 seats, but not all 11.

by Dracomicron 2008-06-13 07:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Reid is useless

"Further, I think we'll pick up 5-7 seats, but not all 11."

That does seem likely.  Four almost-locks in VA, NH, CO and NM.  Good chances in a number of states (MN, OR, ME, AL, MS, KY) that maybe we can pick up a few from.  But getting to 60 without Joementum will be tough.

On the other hand, if we pick up some we can ditch Lieberman and not worry about the majority.

by PantsB 2008-06-13 08:11AM | 0 recs
Re:Good chance in AL?
   We have no chance at all in AL. The postal abbreviation AL is Alabama. You probably mean AK which is the Last Frontier, Alaska.
   Sorry, disgruntled ex-postal worker here... :-)
by Zack from the SFV 2008-06-13 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Reid is useless

You're right.  If we win six this year, in addition to the six last cycle, then Democrats surely haven't done enough by making a massive swing with more gains likely and possible in 2010...

</snark>

by fbihop 2008-06-13 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Reid is useless

He needs to force the Republicans to actually filibuster and be shown as the obstructionists they are.

Hell yes! I am sick and tired of this idea that it automatically takes 60 votes to get anything done in the Senate. If the Republicans want to filibuster children's health care, benefits for veterans, or fair pay for women, then let's hand them the fucking phone book and make them go on record.

by CrazyDrumGuy 2008-06-13 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp; Stability in the Senate

When can the senate dems stip Lieberman of his chairmanship? When the next congress starts in '09?

by dannybauder 2008-06-13 07:54AM | 0 recs
Lieberman's staying

I think Lieberman's going to have that chairmanship as long as he is in the Senate.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-06-13 08:09AM | 0 recs
No way

There's no reason to let him keep it if the Ds have the majority in the Senate without him (unless he's vote #60).

by PantsB 2008-06-13 08:12AM | 0 recs
Basically, yeah.

Theoretically they could do it at any time, I believe; it's just a bad idea right now because he still caucuses with the Democrats and we need him for our Senate majority.

Unless we gat a 59 majority, we won't have much use for him; expect him to lose his goodies.

by Dracomicron 2008-06-13 08:11AM | 0 recs
I like Harry Reid

I like Reid. Reid realizes that Senate politics is like a boxing match, not a steel cage fight-to-the-death. That's how Daschle ran things, and we see how that ended up for him. It's interesting that our last two Senate majority/minority leaders were red state Democrats.

Red state Democrats have conservative constituencies, and they have to be attentive to their constituents' needs first and the Senate second. So as a majority leader in a centrist (maybe even center-right) nation like America has to be attentive to the electorate at large not just the progressive movement.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-06-13 08:08AM | 0 recs
Re: I like Harry Reid

My problem isn't that he is a centrist (okay, that is one of my problems with him,) my problem is he is unwilling to EVER pick a fight.

He backs down. He caves.

I want someone who will make the Republicans at leat work to block legislation.

by JDF 2008-06-13 10:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp; Stability in the Senate

Reid is the Majority Leader, not the Speaker, right?

by bergerc84 2008-06-13 08:11AM | 0 recs
Leadership

Speaker only exists for the House

Leadership in Senate is

  1. Majority Leader (Reid)
  2. Majority Whip (Durbin)
  3. Chuck Schumer (what ever position they gave him that is not DSCC chairman)

House is

  1. Speaker (Pelosi)
  2. Majority Leader (Hoyer)
  3. Majority Whip (Clyburn)
  4. Rahm Emanuel (His promotion after DCCC chairman)

by Trowaman 2008-06-13 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Leadership...To Be Exact:

United States Senate Democratic Leadership:
http://democrats.senate.gov/leadership/

0. President pro tempore: Robert Byrd (WV)

  1. Majority Leader: Harry Reid (NV)
  2. Assistant Majority Leader: Dick Durbin (IL)
  3. Vice-Chair of Conference: Chuck Shumer (NY)
  4. Secretary of the Conference: Patty Murray (WA)
  5. Chairman of Policy Committee: Byron Dorgan (ND)
Granted, Byrd isn't in the Leadership per se, but he is the Senate President Pro Tempore and 3rd in line to the presidency!

United States House Democratic Leadership:
http://www.dems.gov/index.asp?Type=B_LIS T&SEC=%7B9E0AD65A-6D82-4770-8C40-6F2 8845D5660%7D

1. Speaker of the House: Nancy Pelosi (CA-08)

  1. Majority Leader: Steny Hoyer (MD-05)
  2. Majority Whip: James Clyburn (SC-06)
  3. Caucus Chairman: Rahm Emanuel (IL-05)
  4. Caucus Vice-Chairman: John Larson (CT-01)

by ryanlkelly 2008-06-13 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp; Stability in the Senate

It's not going to help us get there to predict outrageous things like 11 seat pick-ups. That's only going to get the Repub funders off their collective asses, out of fear if nothing else. And there's little basis for it.

Really, we look very good only in three states, VA, NH, and NM. Hard to imagine losing any of those, although NM will be a less than 10 point race in the end. CO is MUCH closer than most in the blogosphere seem to think and Udall is not the greatest campaigner in the world. Still, I'd say that looks good. After that, we're not favored anywhere. I can't imagine getting up to 11 seat turnover (and that's assuming Landrieu hangs on in LA)>

by ColoradoGuy 2008-06-13 08:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp;amp; Stability in the Sen

I think you are being too pessimistic.  The Republicans have already pretty much given up on OR, and polling shows that with Obama as the nominee, Franken beats Coleman in MN, even with all his recent problems.  

by LordMike 2008-06-13 09:17AM | 0 recs
&quot;Franken beats Coleman&quot;????

You obviously know nothing about Minnesota.  Franken has a ZERO chance of winning the Senate seat.

Obama is up about 15pts vs McCain in Minnesota and according to the last week's StarTribune poll, Coleman is beating Franken by 10pts.  That is a 25pt variance!

The good folks of Minnesota will NEVER vote Franken in. We've had it with celebrity politicians after Ventura and the recent tax issues with Franken and his Playboy (PornoRama) article has been deemed anti-woman has just put a nail into his electoral coffin. Put a fork in it.

by mikeofminnesota 2008-06-13 10:17AM | 0 recs
Re: &quot;Franken beats Coleman&quot;????

3 points as of today

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_sena te_elections/minnesota/election_2008_min nesota_senate

I may not be from Minnesota but I know he has a much better chance than zero.

by conspiracy 2008-06-13 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: &quot;Franken beats Coleman&quot;????

"You obviously know nothing about Minnesota.  Franken has a ZERO chance of winning the Senate seat."

I'd say that the person who knows nothing about Minnesota is the one who claims Franken has no chance of beating Coleman.  Now, personally, I thik Franken is the definite underdog.  The DFL blew it big time nominating him.  And these latest distractions (Playboy, et cetera) were utterly predictable.  But "ZERO chance"?  that's nonsense.  Coleman is mired under 50% approval and has never led Franken by more than single digits.

"Obama is up about 15pts vs McCain in Minnesota and according to the last week's StarTribune poll, Coleman is beating Franken by 10pts.  That is a 25pt variance!"

The Strib polled Franken v. Coleman last week?  Really?  The last time the Strib polled the matchup was May 19 (that's over three weeks ago, not 'last week') and Coleman led by 7%, not the 10% you claim.

As for your "Obama is up by about 15pts vs McCain" claim, Obama has led by as much as 15% (in fact, exactly 15%) in precisely one poll out of eight since March.  His rolling Realclearpolitics average (last 4 polls over the last 5 weeks) is 10%.

Next time you run around making ABSOLUTE claims of certainty, try not getting damn near every fact you post wrong.

by Collideascope 2008-06-13 11:06AM | 0 recs
Game. Set. Match.

Classic takedown.  Nicely done.

by dcg2 2008-06-13 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp; Stability in the Senate

60 Seats is a beautiful thing.  It lets you know that the American People are sick of the Lies and B.S that this administration has stood for.  

by nzubechukwu 2008-06-13 08:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp; Stability in the Senate

Getting to 60 is just so important, and each individual race is crucial.

Here in Oregon, we really need to get rid of Gordon Smith. He's been a roadblock to progressive legislation, hindering Ron Wyden and our progressive team from getting much of anything accomplished. And he pretends to be a moderate when he's here at home! It's just so frustrating.

Luckily, we have a great candidate running against him: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Jeff's probably the most progressive candidate running against an incumbent Republican across the nation, and we're working hard to elect him.

He's got a great record as Speaker. First, he flipped the chamber from red to blue in the 2006 wave; then, holding his caucus together, he passed some great legislation: environmental protections, cracking down on payday lenders, full domestic partnership legislation, and a ton of stuff for working families. We hope we can send him to the Senate so he can be a champion for ending the war (he endorsed the Responsible Plan), fighting global warming, standing up for civil rights (FISA, anyone?), and supporting full marriage equality.

Go Jeff! And go for 60! Head on over to his Actblue page if you can and give him some help.

by dupreeb 2008-06-13 08:38AM | 0 recs
Oregon

There is a real and legitimate shot here in Oregon with Jeff Merkley. Merkley is polling very tight with Smith--and Smith's negative ads that were run during the primary have caused his approval ratings to plumment.

Merkley is traveling the state on a 100-towns tour of Oregon. He's using that person-to-person touch with voters.  

Jeff is the most progressive Senate candidate in the U.S.  We NEED him in the Senate.

by carla 2008-06-13 08:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon

Right on. While Smith sits in D.C. trying to convince Oregonians he's really a moderate, Jeff's going to be out around the state actually showing that he's the one committed to our state's residents.

The difference couldn't be any more clear!

by dupreeb 2008-06-13 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp; Stability in the Senate

Oklahoma also may be in play because of Andrew Rice. People who hear Rice talk like him--he's articulate and reasonable. Republican Jim Inhofe says global warming is the "second largest hoax after separation of church and state," which makes Oklahoma sound very backwards and is downright embarrassing.

According to a poll quoted in DKos, Oklahomans, when asked, "If the election for US Senate were held today, would you to reelect Jim Inhofe, would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Inhofe? Oklahomans responded: Reelect 39, Consider someone else 23, Replace 28. It will take a lot of work, though.

Jeff Merkley has a real solid shot at unseating Republican Gordon Smith--Smith's numbers are slipping rapidly. His ads may help sink him faster and faster, instead of giving himself camouflage. Oregonians need they need 60 seats to really make a difference.

by CyberCitizen 2008-06-13 08:59AM | 0 recs
Stability in the Senate

Totally! I hope Rice gets in; we could use someone like him, too!

In Oregon's polling, Jeff is tied with Smith and Smith has the worst numbers I've seen in a while for an incumbent (45 approve/47 disapprove). Look out, Gordo...

by dupreeb 2008-06-13 09:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60; Stability in the Senate

The combination of Inhofe and Coburn earns Oklahoma my award for State With the Most Embarrassing and Stupidest Senators.

by InigoMontoya 2008-06-13 11:26AM | 0 recs
Polling from

Rasmussen shows MN within 3% (48-45).  Impact of the negative press on Franken is minimal.

by Student Guy 2008-06-13 08:59AM | 0 recs
Oregon: Jeff Merkley

One of the key races to improving the Democrats (and progressives) position in the Senate is the race here in Oregon. We had a wealth of riches in the primary with both Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley as being rock-solid progressives. Oregon Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley won the primary battle, and is exactly the sort of progressive we need in the Senate.

Here in the Oregon legislature last session, with a razor thin one seat majority, Jeff Merkley was able to get things done and lead the most productive session in decades, passing anti-predator lending laws, giving equal rights to gay couples under Oregon law as straight married couples, creating a rainy-day fund to stabilize school funding, strengthening conservation laws and regulations to protect the environment, the list goes on and on.

Jeff Merkley can take out Bush rubber-stamper Gordon Smith, who is polling under 50% (47% in the latest polling IIRC) and Jeff is in a statistical tie with him in that polling as well.

The only thing that makes the pick-up of a GOP held Senate seat is money. Smith has a sizable war-chest (some $10 million) and Jeff Merkley needs the help of the grassroots to be competitive. So everyone here who gripes about not having a solid majority in the Senate, or that we don't have progressive or strong enough Democrats in the Senate, it is time to put your money where your mouth is. So help replace Bush/McCain lackey Gordon Smith with a true progressive Democrat by donating now. For the cost of a night out at the movies on a weekly basis, we together can get Jeff Merkley the resources to win this seat. We have a great candidate, a weak and very vulnerable GOP incumbent, a change election, but it is up to us to make change happen because it won't happen without us doing our part, and will happen if we donate.

by lestatdelc 2008-06-13 09:17AM | 0 recs
Dems need more than 60

to overcome the DINOs. And things are so bad for the GOP that they may get it.

by Freespeechzone 2008-06-13 09:18AM | 0 recs
The help Jeff Merkley

As I mentioned up-thread, that is why you, me, and everyone here needs to step up to the plate and help elected Jeff Merkley win his race here in Oregon. Unseating Gordon SMith, who votes with Bush/McCain 90%+ of the time is reason enough, but beyond that, Jeff Merkley is a rock-solid progressive and is a Democrat in ACTION not just in name. His leadership here in Oregon with FuturePac flipped our state leg. and got it back in Democratic control, and then lead the one of the most productive and progressive sessions in decades, all with a razor thin majority.

Jeff Merkley is exactly the strong Democrat (and progressive) we need in the U.S. Senate. That is why you, me, and everyone here needs to help out and support Jeff Merkley.

by lestatdelc 2008-06-13 09:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems need more than 60

And some Democrats are almost Maoist in their quest for ideological purity.   Just let me know when the re-education sessions and self-criticisms are to be scheduled.  

I look at the so-called DINO's, and then look at the overwhelmingly Democratic voting records...DINO's indeed.   As opposed to legitimate differences of opinion.

The Republican zealously overreached for a dozen years.  The effective Democratic response is not to mimic them in return.

by InigoMontoya 2008-06-13 11:24AM | 0 recs
Just curious...what party are you of?

A DINO is a Democrat who votes with the GOP more than their own party. Some of them in fact have worse records that some  Republicans.

Making excuses for them, or refusing to put the heat on them in primaries, only encourages them to betray the platform and people of their own party.

Smart politics rewards good behavior and punishes bad.

by Freespeechzone 2008-06-13 11:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Just curious...what party are you of?

Find a Democratic Senator who votes more with the Republicans than the Democrats.   They don't exist.  The closest is Nelson of Nebraska.

by InigoMontoya 2008-06-15 11:46PM | 0 recs
The closest is Nelson of Nebraska.

Close enough.

by Freespeechzone 2008-06-15 11:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp; Stability in the Senate

talk about a dream come true.  Wouldn't be fond of Reid remaining but with that many in the Senate not sure it would really matter.

And thanks for the heads up on Jeff Merkley

by scytherius 2008-06-13 10:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp;amp; Stability in the Senate

He didn't say they would win 11 just that there are 11 realistic targets. And Begich leads in AK. Dems are behind elsewhere but so were McCaskill, Tester, Whitehouse, Menendez and Webb at various points in 2006.

by conspiracy 2008-06-13 11:09AM | 0 recs
That doesn't even count Nebraska

Scott Kleeb took 45% in the most Republican district in the state last year.  He gets that again, he'll pull off the upset in the Nebraska Senate race.

by dcg2 2008-06-13 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Getting 60 &amp; Stability in the Senate

Ok, great.  How can I help, and how can I get paid for it?

by Endymion 2008-06-13 02:33PM | 0 recs

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