It's not a poll, but regression analysis. If thats all there were to polling, it'd not be looked at; but yes, there were demographic shifts, as blogged above, thats why there was a different result.

You could also say it's splitting along gender lines, or certainly along age lines. Clinton lost Indiana among those under 65.

Moreover, her margin in Indiana is possibly entirely explained by the Operation Chaos effect.

Do African-Americans support Obama. Sure. That's a good thing going into the general. A great GOTV tool in the AA community. We also get to harness the enthusiasm of the youth vote, which is great. There are definitely constituencies that we need to bring back into the fold, but it should be doable, especially when you look at McCain. I see the glass not as half empty, but as 90% full.

The deep denial of HRC supporters is entertaining.

Outside observers saw it that HRC's surrogates, like Geraldine Ferraro, were deliberately trying to polarize the Dem voters along racial lines.

It's the type of politics that usually works. And there are more "White" Dems than Black.

When the Obama supporters and more objective observers called out Clinton's tactics, the HRC supporters whined that Obama was playing the race card.

And then they whined some more that Blacks moved away from Clinton and toward Obama.

The denial has graduated from being infuriating to pathetic.

Don't be a racist ass.

What a pack of terrible, ignorant lies.

Not only is this post thinly veiled bigotry, it's also factually wrong. Obama won the black vote not because of charges of racism but because he won Iowa and because Clinton stopped trying to win black voters. When black people saw that whites would vote for Obama, they took him seriously.

What hurt Hillary was her refusal to even pretend to try and get the black vote back. Obama could have won 70-30 among blacks after IA and would have lost MO and done much worse in GA, LA, MS, NC, SC and PA. OH would have been a far greater margin. But by refusing to campaign for black votes, Clinton ceded 90% of the black vote to Obama.

If I could get my ability to rate posts back, I could help hide race-baiting crap like this.  Of course, since no one's willing to tell me why my ability to rate posts was yanked, or even respond to my e-mails about it, I guess I'll never get it back.

I'm not a huge fan of that idea.

I'd like somebody who's a stronger progressive.  She's a little too pro-corporation for my tastes, especially when we've got so many corporate-based problems to deal with nowadays.

I think she's fine as a Senator.  Maybe some more committee chairpersonships or something, potentially majority leader if she can stop talking about killing brown people.

She's too old.  That's not ageism!  I just want someone around 40 years old that will be there for generations.  Plus, she hasn't practiced any constitutional law.

I used to think she would be an incredible Justice, but I would want someone who was anti death penalty on the court now, and she emphatically is not.  Neither are Bill's two appointees.  Georgia just executed a prisoner last night following the Court's refusal to act against lethal injection.  Lives are in the balance and I would like someone who could bring our country into the modern age on this one.

The supreme court is not a reward or something you earn by running a good political campaign.

The job of supreme court justices is to interpret and apply the constitution. That is their one and only job. Sure they do this job with a gloss of their political beliefs. But that is the job description.

I'm not sure Clinton is the pest person to be interpreting the constitution.

I'm rather amused at all this concerned job hunting going on with Hillary Clinton. The need to find the lady a job is fascinating. What is it? Guilt or anxiety?

Let her stay in.  It's done.  Let's just open up to the Clinton supporters and welcome them behind our nominee.

There is still a path, via counting MI and FL. That's anathema to Obama supporters, but has been her stance to count the votes as is. Doing that makes it a much different contest.

The last resort is Obama.... he's been as far back as possible in the choosing, but keeps knocking off my alternatives.

As long as she keeps it civil, that's cool!  The nice thing about IN and NC is that the race ended on issues like the gas tax instead of personal attacks.  That's what a primary is supposed to be about!

Your devotion is admirable, but I think you're losing sight of the bigger picture.

Either show proof of that statement or get TRd. I watched CNN all night last night and NEVER saw that.

I know some Obama supporters have been over the line, but really, most of us really respect HRC and all she has done for the Democratic party and our nation... we just like Obama's stand on various issues better.  For me, it was his stand on the 50 state strategy and his grass roots organizing skill that put him over the top in making up my mind between these two great candidates.

As for Obama being an empty suite, I found that his record of accomplishment is rather respectible for someone who has been on the political scene such a comparitively short amount of time.  I particularly like what he has done in the area of government accountability and transparency.  His bill on campaign finance reform even gives him something to stack up against McCain's signature accomplishment.

I hope that, assuming he really is the nominee, you will give him a second look and conclude at the very least that he is a much better choice than McCain.  I hope we can at least count on your vote in November.

Peace

"Obama made Race a big factor in the primary - falsely accusing the Clintons as racists and waging a campaign based on vitriol and hatemongering"

Were we watching the same campaign. His candidacy wasn't perfect, but the last words I would attach to it would be "vitriol" and "hatemongering"

It is over...it is time to united.  Why would you promote this kind of Crap?  Do you like McCain's war or McCain's plan to bankrupt our economy more?

on display.

It is amazing how childish some people are.  I really can't stand Hillary Clinton but I would have voted for her if she stole the nomination because it was the best thing for the country.  You are just being selfish.  Why don't you get a bumper sticker that says "HOLDING MY BREATH & TURNING BLUE FOR HILLARY"?  That would be more genuine.  

I don't condone this option, I'll keep voting for Hillary as long as she keeps running for reelection.

that the Obama camp said last night that they'd like to come to a compromise on MI and FL. They're in the  drivers seat now. They can seat MI and FL without risk of losing the nomination and some such deal will be cut.

Exit polls suggest 7% of Clinton's vote in Indiana - enough to give her the win.

If Obama was able to win NC by a bigger popular vote margin than Hillary's victory in PA, I see no way she could catch him in the popular vote, even counting MI and FL.

Actually, counting MI and FL, she's likely to end up with a popular vote lead.  She's currently behind by either 88,000 votes or 198,000 votes, depending on whether you include estimates for four caucus states that don't report votes.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l

She has huge polling leads in WV and KY, and a solid polling lead in PR, which are three of the four largest remaining contests.  If the remaining contests vote as expected, she has an excellent chance of making up even the larger of the two numbers above (198,000 votes).

She couldn't have won with 10% black vote.

Yep, Brazille was desperately spinning last night about this. She thinks that they'll vote for Obama in the general election. I guess Brazille thought the same thing when she ran the Dukakis campaign. Whatever. It's obvious that Obama can't win the general election but I think that the DNC doesn't really care.

They said on TV last night that Obama's NC coalition was almost exactly like the one Edwards used to win the Senate seat in 1998. He lost the white vote very badly, African-Americans are a much more powerful Democratic voting bloc in that state.

Besides, Obama's going to get a lot more than 37% of the white vote in most states outside of the south. Relax.

So is it honestly your belief that 100% of those who voted for Hillary are going to be voting for McCain? Because otherwise this is a pretty nonsensical argument. Yes, some Clinton supporters are going to sit it out or even vote for McCain. I doubt it's as many as the polling suggests -- and that's not wishful thinking, that's looking at polling anytime a candidate drops out. Lots of Edwards supporters said they'd never vote for Hillary or Obama; few are saying it now.

I've always thought this was insulting to Clinton, honestly. "Obama has a problem with white voters". So it's all about Obama, huh? No credit goes to Clinton whatsoever? She's really not a very strong candidate (because otherwise it'd be her appeal that was the factor here) but he's even weaker?

Clinton's a very strong candidate. She does very well with a number of demographic groups. Obama's a very strong candidate. He does very well with a number of demographic groups. Right now the evidence (in terms of GE polling) is pretty strongly showing that, once there's a nominee, that nominee will do well, regardless of which candidate is nominated.

And, as hard as it is to believe, Obama's predicted to win states such as Iowa and Wisconsin in the GE, while Clinton's not. I guess it's the hoards of black voters in those states that are swinging the election, because Obama's so terribly unappealing to whites?

If Obama had serious electoral problems, he wouldn't have won huge in NC and almost tied in IN. He's had two months of constant scandal. I'm not saying he's got no problems at all, but it's not as bad as you assume.

Indiana = 16% turnout voters under 30 and 14% turnout voters over 65.

There you go, that is indeed why Obama nearly won the state.

This election isn't going to be about Iraq anymore. Obama's 2002 speech (followed,  incidentally, by precisely zero antiwar leadership in the Senate) won't get him any extra votes in November.

And Hillary seems to be doing OK up here. There's plenty of Obama Kool-Aid left unconsumed.  I wouldn't be surprised is McCain is competitive in New York State against Obama.  "Hope and Change" won't cut it outside NYC.  Obama talks a lot, but there's no reason to believe he can actually do anything.  

I remember the moment I turned on fully to the Obama phenomenon: I was in a Harlem convenience store the day after Iowa, fairly late at night, and a rather transient-looking elderly African American man came into the store for a beer.   He stopped at the rack of newspapers where the NY Post headline read "Winner!" or some such over a large photo of Obama's face.

The old man did a double take, picked up the paper, stared at it for a long moment, and then said, half under his breath and to no one in the store in particular, "I can't believe they let the brother win. "

I gave my first $100 to Obama that night.  

Fine, then sell out your sisters and daughters.

Frankly, abortion is not a hill I choose to die on and I'm not hung up on litmus tests like that.   But for anyone who has made a pro- choice stance on abortion rights the sine qua non standard for acceptability in the democratic party to vote for McCain (which is what staying home or voting for someone else in November will amount to in many states) is laughably hypocritical.

Our party has died on the hill of abortion rights for a generation; it's the single biggest wedge issue that has handed the presidency and (at times) the congress to the GOP (entirely cynically, since they have not done anything to upset the perfectly balanced ecology of hatred on this issue).  

If my fellow "feminist" democrats are willing to elevate their resentment at having lost a shot at getting a deeply flawed female candidate into office over the issue on which many of us have backed you up since we started voting at a huge cost in our ability to advance other important agendas (for me, anti-war and pro-environment),  who needs you?

We don't need the racists who won't vote for a black man either.

You watch.   The wheel is turning.

I won't be voting for either of them because I don't like either of them and I don't trust either of them.