Never Gonna Give Him Up?
by Jonathan Singer, Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:25:34 AM EDT
Over the past few months, and even more so over the past few weeks, the establishment media has obsessed and obsessed and obsessed about comments made by Jeremiah Wright and the potentially deleterious affects those comments could have upon the presidential ambitions of Barack Obama. Nary an interview went by with the Illinois Senator where he was not asked about his former pastor, and a significant portion (roughly the first third) of the most recent debate centered on Wright and Wright-like insinuations. Wright even received more coverage in the elite media last week than did Hillary Clinton.
But for as much talk and print was dedicated to Wright, his impact on actual elections has been remarkably minimal. Certainly there is a decent proportion of voters telling pollsters that they care about Wright when prompted by the media (though whether they would name Wright as a major concern of theirs in more-properly worded open ended question that did not beg a certain result remains unclear). (It's also unclear as to which voters really care about Wright -- if it's Democratic voters or Independents who would otherwise vote or consider voting for the Democratic nominee, or if it is predominantly the conservative Republican base that would vote for the GOP nominee no matter what.) Yet proof that Wright had a long-lasting negative affect upon Obama, or the Democratic Party for that matter, is decidedly absent in actual election results.
In the run up to the special congressional election in a very Republican-leaning district in Louisiana over the weekend, Republicans and groups supporting the GOP expended hundreds of thousands of dollars -- perhaps even over a million -- trying to tie Democratic nominee Don Cazayoux to Obama (as well as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) in the hopes of painting Cazayoux as a wrong fit for the district. Although the ads in Louisiana did not feature Wright specifically, the implication was clear, particularly given the fact that Wright dominated the news coverage that week (as noted above). Despite these attacks (or perhaps in spite of them) and despite the fact that the district, which tended to lean about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections, had been in Republican hands for more than three decades, Cazayoux nevertheless won by a healthy 3-point margin.
Leading into yesterday's primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina there was likewise a significant amount of talk and speculation about whether Wright would sink Obama. Indeed, when prompted by exit pollsters as to whether Wright impacted their vote, about half of Indiana voters yesterday said yes (although, again, I would caution against reading too much into a question that prompts a response like this and would instead wait to see if Wright showed up significantly in an open-ended question in which respondents actually named Wright over other issues like the economy or Iraq before biting too hard). Nevertheless, Obama exceeded expectations in both North Carolina and Indiana, winning the first by a solid margin (by more popular votes than Clinton won Pennsylvania, for instance) and only narrowly losing in the second (by just under two percentage points).
If weeks upon weeks upon weeks of Obama being pummeled in the media couldn't stop him from doing what he needed to last night, and if in the wake of the coverage Obama still isn't a drag on Democratic candidates down ballot -- even in some of the redder areas of the country -- isn't it about time for the media to stop speculating about Obama's potential Wright problem, and in fact just stop talking about Wright altogether? Haven't voters made it clear enough that they care about gas prices and the economy and Iraq -- and George W. Bush, for that matter -- more than they do about a presidential candidate's former pastor? Or are those in the elite press never gonna give him up?
Tags: Barack Obama, Jeremiah Wright, Media, meta (all tags)
-----------
myDD - skin
-----------
104 Comments