My gut tells me Hillary +7

I think N.C is where the real battle is and where the election will be decided.

Hillary will probably win IN, but my guess is that NC does in fact end in double digits.

And this is a major loss for Hillary.  Her math gets even worse every time she doesn't pull ahead.  Now, I understand that many here don't give a fig for the math, but a perusal of super-delegate comments over the last few months is indicative that they most certainly DO give a fig for the math.

There are literally dozens of s-d's who have said that they will support the pledged delegate leader at the end of voting.  Hillary can't afford to lose EVEN ONE VOTE at this time; she needs to not only catch up to Obama but to switch over more then a hundred of his s-d's in order to win.

It's akin to a football game; Team Hillary is behind in the 4th quarter and need a miracle to win, and what more, they are still giving up touchdowns to the other team, putting them even farther behind.  It doesn't inspire confidence.

NC is going to be a lot closer than folks think.

Please, if anyone on the ground sees evidence of people being turned away in IN due to the new Supreme Court decision--post!

In fact, get their name, if possible. One of the reasons the Court was able to justify such an egregious decision is that they claimed that they couldn't find people who had actually been prevented form voting.

At least, I'm intensely curious how it is playing out today.

As many people know, I am an ardent and fervent supporter of Obama, having said that, Hillary is, along with Bill, two of the single greatest campaigner's in modern history.  She has done extraordinarily well after being down to Obama initially.  While I don't agree with all the tactics (from both sides) I can appreciate them in the context of a modern political campaign.  Well done, Hillary - regardless of the outcome.

Another primary day and another record turnout.

Regardless of which side of the fence you're standing on in this fight, Clinton and Obama are GOTV machines and the party owes them both a huge debt of gratitude for our trouncing of McCain in November.

yeah, zogby will always be off. even when they're right they're wrong.

I predicted an obama win in IN many weeks ago (on the strength of northwest IN) but that prediction was way off. He'll lose by at least 6 and he won't carry n.w. IN by any considerable margin.

A shoot?  I'm thinking maybe "chute".

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/c hute

The governor's race in Indiana helps drive up participation as well.  People here are sick of Daniels.  I'll be voting for Long Thompson for Gov. and Obama for Pres.  My hunch is that Long Thompson people will generally go toward Hillary and Shellinger people will go Obama, so governor race exit polls should be telling (although I'm obviously an exception to this).

Do they really mean "shoot", as opposed to "chute"? Hmm ....

Just voted here in NC--for Hillary--and after keeping his cards close to his chest, so did my husband. He was undecided, but he's been listening over the past few weeks as I've rebutted the same-old-same-old negative stuff another family member (Obama-supporter) was spouting.  I did my research so I could use direct quotes and video clips rather than engage in a bashorama.  While I couldn't change Obama-supporter's vote (already  cast early), I did transform a hardened Hillary-basher into someone willing to vote for her if she gets the nom, AND my undecided hubby voted Hillary.

I live in the Chicago media market and I think your analysis is off. Gary is a post apocalyptic wasteland that I seriously don't think Hillary will get 10 percent in. Add to that the college areas of Northern Indiana and Hillary is going to have to get a lot from the south of the state to offset the numbers from the north.

Indiana isn't just a Republican state, it is a Republican stronghold. There is a weird vibe throughout that place, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of those Republicans went to all sorts of trouble to make sure this race continues. This is the sort of thing people should expect though when one race is over and the other is not.

Indiana should seriously consider adopting North Carolina's rules on poll closings.

If you're in line at closing time, you get to vote.  The officer on duty simpy joins the end of the line when the polls were scheduled to close, and politely informs anyone trying to join after that time that they did not make it in time.  But anyone in front of them gets to vote, even if it takes hours.

Well, Rush Limbaugh is crowing about getting Republicans to vote for Hillary. So assuming she wins, there will be a lot of discussion about how this affected the outcome and the margins.

Since this is the top story on The Page, it should make its way into MSM coverage.
http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/06/chaos /
http://thepage.time.com/

Here Rush here http://i.timeinc.net/time/2008/thepage/L imbaugh_050608.mp3

Is this the same Zogby that endorsed Obama?

James J. Zogby, as a superdelegate, has endorsed Barack Obama for President.

If that's the case....It's personally difficult for me to trust any poll that "Zogby" does in reference to the election.

To anyone who says this legthy campaign season is hurting our party I'd say "just LOOK at these beautiful numbers re new Dems!

This years campaign is a PARTY BUILDER you guys - that's something to be celebrated, not shut down prematurely!

Obama voters will go to a "chute."

Annie Oakley voters can go to the "shoot."  (Watch out for Little Dickie Cheney)

Interesting and informative. Great links...I too thought the "hotline" piece was interesting.

Indiana does allow everyone in line at 6 pm to vote.  In 2004, that meant that people will still voting on Diebold machines at midnight.

Both Obama and Clinton spoke at the Jefferson Jackson on Sunday.  It was a great turnout.  Fortunately, I had my ticket early because it sold out 3000 seats.

In Indiana, it is the economy stupid.  Obama wins on the Iraq war, but the worries have shifted to the economy.  People here remember the Clinton economy and that is driving the votes.  Indiana is the "Crossroads of America" and all the Chicago truck traffic to the East goes through Indiana.  Fuel costs are a big issue.

Our county has early voting and the turnout has been massive.  More people voted early than voted in the 06 primary.  We are hoping the coattails extend down ballot enough to unseat Republican Steve Buyer.  Buyer is hated by the Veterans because he stiffed them when was head of the House VA committee.  He was an impeachment manager for Clinton.  He usually won't debate his opponent, but he might this time.  Democrat Nels Ackerson has already raised more money.  Ackerson did a lot of pro-bono work for farmers against the utilities and railroads so he has a lot of support from Farm Bureau and rural area.  He has a shot at winning a "no Republican left behind district".

BTW, nobody can count the Superdelegate's votes until they actually vote. They might say one thing today as in, "I'm supporting Obama", then actually vote for Clinton when the time comes or the other way around. The same with the pledged delegates. At the convention, they vote based on their state's election, but, after the first ballot, if there is no clear winner. On the second ballot, its a free for all, everybody can vote their own way. They are not committed to anything but their heart.

12 elderly nuns turned away from polls b/c they didn't have drivers licenses (they don't drive) and their passports weren't current.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/0 5/indiana_nuns_lacking_id_denied.php

I don't have any idea who they were voting for, but this is so very, very wrong.  

6 pm poll closing times are ridiculous, given typical commutes these days. Sheesh.

Federal polling and voting standards!