McCain Spending in West Virginia
by Jonathan Singer, Fri May 30, 2008 at 06:55:44 PM EDT
In 2004, the race for the White House in West Virginia wasn't even close, with George W. Bush topping John Kerry by a 56 percent to 43 percent margin. Looking through all of the numbers from 2004, Bush ran stronger in West Virginia than he did in about a third of the other states he carried that year. So why, then, is John McCain dumping money in the state -- particularly at a time when he has been unable to come close to meeting the fundraising machines that are the Obama and Clinton campaigns?
John McCain's campaign is spending $1.135M on ad buys between May 6 and June 16.
Per my media buyer source, here are the states McCain's team is targeting:
Ohio -- $483,184
Pennsylvania -- $228,159
Michigan -- $227,978
Iowa -- $107,940
West Virginia -- $84,275
There's a bit of offense going on there, with McCain spending in Michigan, a state Kerry won with 51 percent of the vote (and thus a state that tends to lean about 3 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in presidential elections). Pennsylvania, too, is a state in which Kerry bested Bush in 2004, though Pennsylvania is more of a swing state and, as such, McCain's move to advertise there does not come as a terrible surprise.
But West Virginia? McCain is devoting about 7.5 percent -- or about one of every thirteen dollars -- of his total ad buy between the beginning of May and the end of June in West Virginia, a state that wasn't even really competitive in 2004? It sure makes me wonder if the McCain pollsters know something I don't know about the state's willingness to punch the Democratic presidential ballot in 2008...