Obama Leading Guam Caucuses
by Todd Beeton, Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:45:52 AM EDT
Today the the island of Guam, a US territory that will have a total of 9 delegate votes at the convention, held their Democratic caucuses.
More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned.
Four pledged delegate votes were at stake on the island 8,000 miles from Washington. Guam also has five superdelegates and some of those are being determined in the caucus voting as well.
With just over half the votes counted, Barack Obama holds an 8 point lead over Hillary Clinton.
Guam's support for Barack Obama continues to mount, as the senator from Illinois has extended his lead over his New York counterpart, Hillary Clinton, in the 2008 Guam Democrat Caucus. With 12 out of 21 local voting precincts now having been accounted for, Obama has 899 of the 1,668 total votes (54%). Volunteers from the Democrat Party of Guam have counted 769 votes (46%) for Clinton.
But as Ben Smith notes, Clinton could still catch up:
But the Clinton faithful still have hope, as the critical precinct of Dededo - the island's most populous village - remains uncounted.
The Obama campaign's projected pledged delegate spreadsheet had Obama winning by 11% but splitting the pledged delegates 2-2.
Update [2008-5-3 15:50:56 by Todd Beeton]:Demconwatch has the updated numbers:
16 districts out of 19 (84%), Obama 1,420 53%, Clinton 1,246 47%So far each candidate has won one pledged delegate.
Update [2008-5-3 16:35:57 by Todd Beeton]:With 95% reporting, the margin remains 53%-47%. According to Demconwatch, Green Papers is projecting a 2-2 pledged delegate split (which actually means 4 delegates for each candidate each with half a vote at the convention.)
Update [2008-5-3 17:25:24 by Todd Beeton]:The reason Guam hasn't been called is that the last village to report is Guam's most populous:
It's all come down to one village. Presidential candidate hopeful Senator Hillary Clinton decidedly took Agat, and Barack Obama just barely won Yona for the Guam Democrat Caucus, bringing Obama's lead to just 5.5%. And the only remaining village left to be counted is Dededo, Guam's second-largest municipality and its most populated.
That it's still too close to call is actually pretty remarkable. As of now, Clinton has defied the Obama campaign's own expectations by cutting Obama's projected margin of victory in half. We'll see how close it actually gets after Dededo reports. CNN is already talking about how this is closer than it was supposed to be, which is exactly the narrative Clinton would like to see going into Tuesday.
Update [2008-5-3 17:32:6 by Todd Beeton]:From Tremayne at Open Left, Obama is winning the superdelegate sweepstakes in Guam today.
While the overall race is still close, the race for chairman and vice chairman of the U.S. territory's Democratic party is not. Those winning these positions automatically become 2 of the superdelegates for Guam. The posts will be won by the pro-Obama slate where one candidate has endorsed him and the other says he'll support the Guam popular vote winner.Update [2008-5-3 18:0:20 by Todd Beeton]:As of now the most up to date results are as follows (still waiting for the village of Dededo to report):
Barack Obama 52.7% (1951 votes)
Hillary Clinton 47.3% (1748 votes)