A 50-State Campaign?

About two weeks ago, Barack Obama made a bit of a flub on the campaign trail in Oregon, saying that he had visited 57 states to that point while campaigning. Of course what he meant to say was that he had visited 47 states. Leaving aside Obama's mixup, I think there's something interesting there. Since making those comments, Obama has hit his 48th state -- South Dakota -- hitting each of the lower contiguous states, leaving just Hawaii, where he was born and grew up, and Alaska, where he has a reasonable shot of competing, to be visited. For reference, Obama has plans to visit bothstates, meaning that in not too long of a time he will have hit all 50 states in the union.

This is a fairly remarkable accomplishment. Obama has already announced a 50-state strategy, but actually campaigning in every state -- even if just for a day or two -- more than five months away from election day is nevertheless a notable and positive development. Does campaigning in every state mean that every state will be competitive in November? No. Does this mean that there's value in campaigning in non-competitive states to the detriment of hitting the more competitive ones? Of course not.

At the same time, there is little evidence that having campaigned in nearly every state has hurt Obama. Indeed, Obama holds a pledged delegate lead and an overall delegate lead -- just 53 delegates away from the magic number of 2,026 -- not only despite having hit the lower 48, but perhaps also, at least in part, because of having hit them.

Going forward, I don't think it would necessarily be a great idea for Obama to hit all 50 states again between the convention and election day. As Chris Dodd said in an interview with MyDD back in August at the Yearly Kos convention in Chicago, "I'd be careful about any candidate saying, 'I promise to campaign in all 50 states.' [...] I wouldn't want someone going off the last week in the campaign because they made a promise in Chicago to be in South Dakota, with all due respect to South Dakota, and, say, Mississippi, because there are three states they haven't gotten to and we need you."

Nevertheless, there is value in hitting states that haven't seen a serious presidential campaign in years past -- including, perhaps, Mississippi, where the Democrats seriously overperformed in a special election this month and which could be on the map if targeted in a strategic way. Putting new states on the map can stretch the GOP thin, making it more difficult for John McCain to win in November. This generally means campaigning in closer states like Virginia -- or New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, where Obama will campaign this week -- states that the GOP carried in recent Presidential elections but which appear to be trending noticeably towards the Democrats (and, more importantly, where Obama already polls close to McCain). Yet devoting even a few days between now and election day to hitting places like Omaha (where one or two electoral votes may be in play) and Anchorage (Obama is possibly within striking distance in Alaska, particularly if Bob Barr is on the ballot in the state) and even Mississippi would not necessarily be poor investment of time, either.

Tags: 2008, 50 State (all tags)

Comments

68 Comments

Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Crash the gate!  I dig the fact that he will end up hitting all 50 states.

by kasjogren 2008-05-25 10:20AM | 0 recs
It's not about the last week!

The trick is, starting early, being organized, and having a solid strategy.

When Bush visited California in the waning days of the 2000 campaign, it was all about bluster, and it was a mistake.

For Obama to visit South Dakota, and Wyoming, and even Utah, will not be a mistake. Not if it energizes the Democratic grassroots, registers more voters, and helps us pick up some more congressional seats....

by Victor Laszlo 2008-05-25 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Thank you for this diary!

This is one of the most well written, well thought out diary I've read! It's positive, on the mark analysis!

I've hot listed it!

Crash the gate indeed!!!

by Wary 2008-05-25 03:41PM | 0 recs
Barry Goldwater campaigned in all 50 States!

Didn't help him much. I'd say that actually going to all 50 states is highly over-rated.

Obama has to run a strong campaign in all 50 states, but he is obviously going to focus a lot more on Ohio or Colorado than on Texas or Mississippi.

by Cugel 2008-05-26 08:40AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Hello...the magic number is 2210!  /snark

But seriously, hitting all again would be an incredible accomplishment and might well lay the groundwork for future contests to be slightly more competitive.  People tend to listen a bit more when you take the time to come visit them in person.

by RockvilleLiberal2 2008-05-25 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Bingo!!!!!  It carries a lot of good will when you show people you care enough to campaign in their backyard(so to speak)

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-05-25 10:25AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

I thought the same thing.......has hell frozen over.....a front page diary on mydd that uses the number 2025??

by feliks 2008-05-25 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Naw, Jonathan's been gorged on this for awhile now-

It's delicious, with a nice culty aftertaste.

by ragekage 2008-05-25 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

culty aftertaste.

Love it.

by spacemanspiff 2008-05-25 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Hitting all 50 states has a very symbolic meaning ..  it shows that you aren't just for the "red" states .. or the "blue" states .. it's the opposite of what George Bush does .. and sadly .. what Kerry did ..  how can you expected someone to vote for you .. if you don't show that you care about their state and problems .. and the best way to show that(give the time constraints) is to have stops in all 50 states .. and it is great publicity as well .. what happens when someone like Obama visits Montana? .. When is the last time a candidate in the primary or GE visited Montana? .. it would make all the TV stations and papers in the state

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-05-25 10:24AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Yep. In some places, it could mean a few points. There will be states that never vote for a Democrat, but in this era of Clinton-Kerry "Blue state" strategy, we just ASSUME we can't win.

We'll never win if we don't TRY to change the math. And this is why I support the guy. He's at least TRYING to change the map.

by Philly Ed 2008-05-25 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Never say never.

by SpanishFly 2008-05-25 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Don't forget .. those few points mean a lot in down ballot races(places like KY .. where Dems still get elected to state and local level races .. but not national)

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-05-25 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

I'm not trying to get in a dig at Clinton here, but I do think you're hitting on the incredible value of taking all--or most--of the states seriously.  Yes, Obama campaigned less in WV and KY than did Clinton, but he took many of the red states of February far more seriously than she did.  And not only did he visit the states; he developed extensive campaign organizations in them, effectively melding paid staff and well-trained volunteers.  Beyond that, with his more than 1.5 million contributors, he has a remarkable donor network that doubtless spans the 50 states.  I'd love to see a map showing where those donors live, perhaps superimposed on a map showing precincts Kerry won and lost.

by deminva 2008-05-25 10:32AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

You know, I had agreed with Jonathon's diary, but now that you've so convincingly made your argument, I've decided that you must be right.

It was probably the all capital letters that did it.

by Fitzy 2008-05-25 05:18PM | 0 recs
The poor grammar and punctuation sold me.

Thank you for the enlightenment.

by lojasmo 2008-05-26 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

I like the idea of hitting all 50 states again.

I just remember reading about Nixon fruitlessly flying off to Alaska or some other remote state in the last weekend of his 1960 race against Kennedy because of a similar 50-state pledge.

Better to do it without committing to it, in case you need to kill the plan in the closing days of the election.

by Bush Bites 2008-05-25 10:34AM | 0 recs
It's that...

some other remote state

attitude on the part of many Democrats that has locked up rural America for the Republicans lo these many years.

by Ed J 2008-05-25 10:57AM | 0 recs
Not really.

It was Democrats pushing civil rights legislation so that every American could vote, not just white people, that converted some states into reliable places for the hate-mongers to stir enough fear and resentment to keep the MIC in power.

by edg1 2008-05-25 11:03AM | 0 recs
You are partially correct.

The civil rights movement of the sixties drove many whites to the Republicans.

But that was forty years ago. The Democrats have done little in the interim to convince those voters that they've been voting against their own best interest all these years.

by Ed J 2008-05-25 12:33PM | 0 recs
That's where Obama comes in.

He is reaching out to young Republicans and Independents to bring them back to the Democratic Party.

by edg1 2008-05-25 02:40PM | 0 recs
We'll see about that...

in the fall.

by Ed J 2008-05-25 04:44PM | 0 recs
Re: We'll see about that...

I was skeptical about Bill Clinton but he turned out all right. He ran on a platform of change and hope and turned out to be just what we needed for the 1990s.

by edg1 2008-05-25 07:19PM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

People like to point to Nixon's trip to Alaska as a foolish use of campaign time and resources, but the fact is that he only won the state by about 1,000 votes.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-05-25 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

It also had a huge impact on the way the state developed politically in the years since.

by Endymion 2008-05-25 02:57PM | 0 recs
That was Barry Goldwater in 1964!

NOT Nixon! 1n 1964 Goldwater made the 50 state pledge, so he spent the last weekend of the campaign flying off to Alaska to keep it, just so the media wouldn't be able to say he broke his promise.

He would have lost anyway, but having to waste a bunch of time flying off to states he was either going to lose badly anyway, or which weren't worth many electoral votes, wasn't a great strategy.

He might have won a few more states with a better run campaign.

by Cugel 2008-05-26 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

I agree - sure, he's not going to carry Texas, but we don't build a party by simply writing off states.  In contrast, a GOP candidate won't carry California in the next 20 years or more, but they have an organization here.  We should have thriving, supported parties in all the states - not all of them will contribute electoral votes, but all of them will contribute congressional candidates, expertise, policy wonks, and diversity.

by auronrenouille 2008-05-25 10:36AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

This. This. This. Absolutely, 100% this.

by ragekage 2008-05-25 10:56AM | 0 recs
Just checked: it was Alaska.

Which leads to this trivia question -- who was the last presidential candidate to promise to campaign in all 50 states?

Answer: Richard Nixon, 1960, versus John Kennedy. Here's his speech accepting the nomination at the July 28, 1960 Republican convention in Chicago:

I announce to you tonight, and I pledge to you, that I, personally, will carry this campaign into every one of the 50 states of this nation between now and November the 8th.

And what were the practical implications of Nixon's pledge? Let's let historian Richard Norton Smith tell the rest of the story:

He wanted to call attention to the fact that Alaska and Hawaii had come into the union during the Eisenhower presidency. In practical term, that meant on the Saturday before the election, when he should have been in Illinois or Texas, he was on a plane headed for Alaska, which in those days, that was a lot more remote a destination than it is today. He paid a high price on Election Day.

As one wag tells me this morning, Nixon's pledge backfired on him -- thank God he never kept a promise ever again!

http://www.extrememortman.com/politics/5 0-state-presidential-campaign/

by Bush Bites 2008-05-25 10:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Just checked: it was Alaska.
This year it could pay off for him to visit Alaska.
We have a good chance of becoming a blue state, both in the presidential GE, and in our Senate and single HORep seat.
And I'd bet at least 5,000 people will come to see him in person!
by toyomama 2008-05-25 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Yes, except that 2025 is NOT the "magic number."

And maybe he visited KY early on, but studiously avoided campaigning there during the KY primary when perhaps he could have done some good for himself with the working class.

by jpetty 2008-05-25 10:37AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

I think he was trying to graciously concede those states to Clinton, and was also trying to avoid a "ZOMG HE CAMPAIGNED THERE AND STILL LOST!!!!" screaming marathon, which ensued in any case.

by ragekage 2008-05-25 10:58AM | 0 recs
You're right.

The magic number is 2026. There was one more delegate slot added to the count.

by edg1 2008-05-25 11:06AM | 0 recs
Anything but the old "Lose 36" strategy.

by Freespeechzone 2008-05-25 10:37AM | 0 recs
No - BO can only come up with a

46 state campaign - he rejects that Fla, MI, WV and Kentucky are concerns.

And if you want more bad news for BO, take a peek, here:

http://www.correntewire.com/blog/paul_lu kasiak

by CoyoteCreek 2008-05-25 10:40AM | 0 recs
I take Taylor Marsh

So much more seriouslier dude!

by Lord Hadrian 2008-05-25 10:43AM | 0 recs
Also:

by Lord Hadrian 2008-05-25 10:44AM | 0 recs
Woops...

by Lord Hadrian 2008-05-25 10:45AM | 0 recs
Wow - BO supporters

have your heads in the sand.

Don't blame the rest of us Dems when you take it out in November only to find that it really is OVER - for BO.

by CoyoteCreek 2008-05-25 10:46AM | 0 recs
LOL!!!

AT YOU!!!!!!

I love reading your stuff. It makes no sense but you put so much effort into it. Here's some mojo for trying.

by spacemanspiff 2008-05-25 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: LOL!!!

I know, he tries so hard! I feel sorry for him.

by ragekage 2008-05-25 10:59AM | 0 recs
You want to laugh...read this:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/wo rld/us_and_americas/us_elections/article 3998946.ece

Obama wants Bill Clinton to heal Dem rifts.  HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

I thought BO was the uniter?  What an @ss.

by CoyoteCreek 2008-05-25 11:02AM | 0 recs
I MEAN HYSTERICALLY FUNNY.

"If anybody can put their arms around the party and say we need to be together, it is Bill Clinton," a senior Obama aide said.

"He's brilliant, he has got heart and he cares deeply about the country. It's tricky because of his position as Hillary's spouse, but his involvement is very important to us.

"Bill Clinton will give permission to Hillary supporters to come into our camp and become one party. He is critical to this effort."

by CoyoteCreek 2008-05-25 11:03AM | 0 recs
LOL!!!

Yeah, right.

You're so used to believing spin blindly you even fall for what the Obama camp throws at you.

I'm sure Bill will work to elect B.O. as will Hillary. I have no idea why you would think it's funny. Then again, I have no idea how you believe half the things you write.

by spacemanspiff 2008-05-25 11:09AM | 0 recs
This spin was from BO's BFF.

No spin from me!

by CoyoteCreek 2008-05-25 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: This spin was from BO's BFF.

I say this as kindly as I can, without malice or tribalism.  I want you to honestly consider my following words before replying.  Please, I'm trying to help you here.  This isn't an Obama thing or a Clinton thing for a moment.  I'm just being human.

If you think that you have been above "spin" on this website, you absolutely positively need to reevaluate your own objective view of yourself and your actions.  You certainly have been willing to spin things, perhaps not so egregiously as others, but just the same your own preconceived values and such have strongly flavored the way that you present "facts" to the rest of us, and as to how you think those "facts" will play out in the future.

Again, I'm not intending any disrespect at all.  This even applies, to a lesser extent, to the above remarks you made.

I'm asking you as kindly as I can to consider my words.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-05-25 11:27AM | 0 recs
You said I was spinning my comment.

I was not.

I was simply reporting fact.

by CoyoteCreek 2008-05-25 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: You said I was spinning my comment.

I can see that it's very difficult to talk to you.  Take a moment to breathe.  You suffer from Persistent Argumentative Disorder, an electronically transmitted infection, or ETI.  Try logging off for a while.  

by Endymion 2008-05-25 03:06PM | 0 recs
You're absolutely right.

Whatever Obama aide said that must have been drunk on warm beer. Telling so many lies about Bill Clinton (BILL CLINTON!!!) such as "brillian" and "cares deeply about the country" would have been impossible while sober.

by edg1 2008-05-25 11:09AM | 0 recs
Ooops, forget the T in brilliant.

by edg1 2008-05-25 11:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Ooops, forget the T in brilliant.

you mean, 'forgot'?  /snark

by Endymion 2008-05-25 03:07PM | 0 recs
Re: I MEAN HYSTERICALLY FUNNY.

funny?

Sounds like a very nice compliment about former president clinton

by CaptainMorgan 2008-05-25 11:11AM | 0 recs
Yea - after trashing both Clintons

as racists and disavowing anything good to come out of Clinton's 8 years in office (the only Dem since Rossevelt to achieve that status, BTW).

Dooh.

by CoyoteCreek 2008-05-25 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: No - BO can only come up with a

Buyers' Remorse: How Rank & File Democrats Rejected Obama Once He Was Declared The "Inevitable" Nominee

Yeah, voters in NC and OR rejected him BIG time, didn't they?

(OK. I admit it. I was a fool to click the link. Hillary's trash talk is SO yesterday.)

by Freespeechzone 2008-05-25 11:24AM | 0 recs
There are Democrats in every state

We need to remember that. Dems in every state can help the campaign, by donating, volunteering, making calls.

A 50-state strategy means we harness the people power in every state, even the ones we can't win. Its a winning strategy, i'd say.

by BlueGAinDC 2008-05-25 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Obama is doing this campaign in conjunction with the DNC.  I think this campaign is the start of bigger drive for Democrats to be competitive in every state, especially  the red states.

This 50 state campaign is to plant the seeds of democratic ideals in all states.  Although this campaign is to help who ever is the nominee get elected in the general, it will also help other local democratic candidates win their seats.

This is a good thing for those who believe in the ideals of the democratic party.

by hienmango 2008-05-25 10:53AM | 0 recs
A Winning Candidate

Barack Obama knows what it takes to win. Having won the Democratic primary, he is now "taking it to the states" to win the upcoming general election. The 50 state strategy does not mean winning in every state. It never did. It means contesting every state so that the Republicans need to watch their backs.

Obama is a masterful campaigner and will be numbered among the short list of best Presidents ever.

by edg1 2008-05-25 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: A Winning Candidate

This comment has a strong possibility of winning the internets. It's right up there.

Hmm... I think I'll need to do a photoshop.

by ragekage 2008-05-25 10:59AM | 0 recs
Has Hillary campaigned in as many states?
Anyone know how many states she's visited? Just curious.

My guess is, it's close if not identical, but I'm really not sure.

by DemsRising 2008-05-25 11:05AM | 0 recs
I think Obama Supporters agree!

And have always agreed.

We were the ones demonized for quite a while here since only certain states "counted".  

Glad to see a front page article that makes this much sense...  Even if it included a gratuitous shot at Obama.  Sigh.  I guess that's a requirement here.

Everyone knows, Hillary has never misspoken.  Oh wait...

by SpanishFly 2008-05-25 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: I think Obama Supporters agree!
Okay, the logic on this on is a little convoluted, so bear with me.  It is a well known fact that all of the bloggers on MyDD are actually Jerome.  It's been widely reported and is only disputed by a few scurrilous 'netizens.' Now, Jerome 'co'-wrote a book in which the 50-state strategy was mentioned as a necessity for the future of the Party.  And so, Jonathan has always supported a 50-state strategy.  
Damn, I just read what I wrote.  At what point have you spent enough time on something that you should post it even though it's dumb?
by Endymion 2008-05-25 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: I think Obama Supporters agree!

LOL!  Well, I'm not sure where you were heading but I think you need to bring a compass next time.

Have a good one.

PS.  I doubt what you heard about Jerome.  The writing styles are too different, IMO.

by SpanishFly 2008-05-26 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

It is not just the Presidency.
This Primary season has brought attention and activity to State Parties.
We want 60  Senate Dems(no joe lie)+Bernie.
We want a crushing majority in the House..
More Dems in State Leg's.
This is not about a candidate. It is about bringing ourselves out of the darkness of the past 8 years on all levels of govt.

50 States...yes!

by nogo postal 2008-05-25 11:18AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Exactly.  I can't speak for other states, but here in Oregon, the organizing that the Obama campaign has done is about energizing the grassroots volunteers and donations in a way that I have never seen before.  Two days after our May 20th Oregon primary, there was a Democratic Party of Oregon event called "United for Change" where most prominent Democrats in the state gathered to speak about sweeping change in November, from President Obama, to Senator Merkley (to beat our current Republican Gordon Smith), to House races and increasing the Democratic majority in our Oregon State House and Senate.  Winning the Presidency is only half of the strategy of the Obama campaign...changing the Democratic party across this country from the bottom up is another part.  Some of the establishment Dems who have not served the people need to be as worried as the Republicans.  And for the record, I was a registered Independent, but registered Democrat to be able to vote in the primary, and I have never worked on Democratic campaigns in my life before this year.

by nadacascadia 2008-05-25 07:37PM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

It's also important to consider the impact that a heavily trumpeted '50 State Campaign' narrative can have.  A campaign stop in Outer Redstatia that supports a well illustrated mythos of inclusion may have more impact in a swing state than an actual campaign stop there(if a candidate goes far enough outside the normal patterns of campaigning, that can get more media coverage than a routine event right around the corner).  Americans, especially on the Left, love reality, but all of us are suckers for an interesting story.

by Endymion 2008-05-25 03:24PM | 0 recs
Hell yes, it's a good idea!

Enough with planning on losing in 30-some states.  The 50-state strategy is going to have several positive effects:

1) Unexpected swing states.  Head over to Electoral-Vote and look at the latest O vs. McBush map.  Virginia's tied.  Virginia!  South Carolina's within 3%.  South Carolina!  And that's before the boost Obama will get when he's officially the nominee and can put 100% of his attention on McCain.

2) Putting McCain on defense.  Aside from the states that are surprisingly up-for-grabs, there are states that are surprisingly close.  Texas has a single-digit margin, for Pete's sake.  And every campaign stop that McCain has to make to shore up support in Texas, or Florida, or North Carolina, is a day where he's not trying to flip Pennsylvania or New Jersey.

3) Coattails.  The past 3 special elections?  3 Dem pickups in 3 deeply red states.  So what if Obama isn't going to win Louisiana or Montana.  How many Democrats are going to get a boost if they get to do an event with him?  If he appears in their TV spots?  If the local paper's wall-to-wall coverage of Democrats the week he's in town?

He won't just be making the perfunctory visits Nixon did back in the day, either.  He's got an organization in all 50 states, so he'll have an advance presence, and a professional setup at whatever campaign stop he does.  He may not win all 50 states, but I think he'll make a difference in all 50.

by schroeder 2008-05-25 04:28PM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

Would someone here please tell me when he was in Arkansas while he has been campaigning for President? I met him when he came here in 2006 stumping for Mike Beebe, but I do not remember him coming back since beginning his run.

by GLP72315 2008-05-26 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: A 50-State Campaign?

The 57 thing was a hyperbolic joke alluding to the length of the campaign. It's obvious from the clip but most people have just heard about it and have not actually watched it.

by neverfox 2008-05-27 09:20AM | 0 recs

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