You just love to stir the pot.  What are you going to do once Obama is officially the nominee?  

I dont understand this diary.

Is this a joke, snark, attack, information.

Please elaborate, what am I supposed to take away from this diary?

It's May.  

Let's save the polls until later.  I'd love to see some issues diaries contrasting the Dems and the Repub's or talking about how we can make a move for wider progressive values in Nov.

Enought with poll, after poll, after poll, regardless of who they favor.

None of these polls, good/bad, matter until late-September.

settle down jerome

I think the Wright issue was bigger than people would like us to believe.

Wright came out after Super Tuesday - if it had hit the airwaves prior to Super Tuesday, I wonder what the math would be today.

The poll is within the margin of error.

Well the latest MN polls have both of them up.  I think the EV counter is just highly inaccurate.

Why are you so happy about our likely Democratic Presidential candidate behind McCain in Virginia?

Woo Hoo

let me get the pop corn out

VCU's poll was taken between the 12th and the 18th; SUSA's was between the 16th and the 18th.

Well now what, which counts as "more recent"?  After all, SUSA started later, and was announced later.  But they ended on the same day...  And they had such different results, even though they polled around the same time!  We're in a quandary.

...Or maybe, just maybe, we shouldn't be using "recentness" as our most important polling metric?

Because McCain sure doesn't.

The war mongerer and torture advocate doesn't stand a chance against a nation of moral citizens.

Shorter Jerome:

The poll showing Obama up doesn't matter because you can find a poll that shows whatever you want!

But seriously, look at how well Clinton is doing in the EC!!  ummm... according to the latest polls.

Truly beyond parody.

this poll is only 14% African-American & 80% white in sample.

exit polls from 2004 indicated 21% AA and 72% white in Virginia, and, if anything the 21% AA number is likely to increase.

Jerome,

any inside insight on the swirling VEEP reports?

Clinton is at 326 ev's on the MYDD electoral maps because they are a sham intended to prop her up.

The explanation, Jerome, is that Clinton is the stronger candidate.

Absolutely right.  Obama leading by 7 points in one poll should get no more weight that behind by 8 in the other one.  The average of the 9 mos recent polls on fivethirtyeight.com shows McCain wih an average lead of 2.2%, certainly within any reasonable margin of error.

That same site shows Clinton with a better chance of beating Mccain in the EV.

I sometimes wonder, though, do you believe that Clinton has any chance of winning the nomination at this point?  If so, how do you see that happening given where we are now, superdelegates, etc?  Even granting Florida and MI exactly as is doesn't seem like it would do it, and the supers don't seem any more likely to go for the popular vote argument in 2 weeks than they are now.

If not, while I know that the anti-Clinton forces are pretty damn obnoxious, are you interested in rising above the bickering?  Just 'cause kos does it too doesn't make it right.

"More seriously, why is Clinton so far up in the latest polling in all the states, now at 326 EV's. I don't have an explanation for it, nor have I read a good one. Any ideas?"

I have one.  Clinton already is receiving the unity bump.  Until yesterday, she was saying the right things, and Obama supporters were willing to go along and say they'd support her since there is so little perceived downside.  Meanwhile, Clinton supporters aren't willing to go along yet, so they're holding out in hope that the polls will convince SDs.

"More seriously, why is Clinton so far up in the latest polling in all the states, now at 326 EV's. I don't have an explanation for it, nor have I read a good one. Any ideas?"

Because the Democrats are uniting now that the primaries are concluding, Obama supporters saying they'd prefer Hillary over McCain.

Hillary's supporters aren't there yet, as many of them aren't accepting it's over.

Neither Obama nor McCain are campaigning against her anymore. She's reaping the polling benefit of the McCain/Obama slugfest since she's positioned herself to the right of Obama but to the left of McCain.

Clinton's numbers have dropped when the candidates start locking horns.   Back in October, when Clinton opened up a 33-point lead on Obama, it looked like Obama was finished before the first contest took place.  In December, when things began to heat up between Clinton and Obama, the gap closed and Obama won Iowa in early Jan.  

If only Clinton had held on to her poll leads for the whole primary season, she would have swept nearly every contest and would be the nominee now.

I just listened to Sean Hannity for an hour during which he spoke constantly about how the votes in FL and MI should be counted, as well as all of the other HRC talking points.  

These wing nuts aren't stupid, much as we'd like to believe that to be the case, especially when it comes to matters political.  If they think Hillary should be the nomineee, then I would bet that plenty of research has been done to determine that Obama has the best chance against McCain.  

Polls at this stage, when the nominee isn't a lock yet and the HRC supporters are all pissed off, mean absolutely nothing.  Not to mention that fact that they don't account for the Republican liars who want this thing to swing to Hillary.

This is just nonsense.

Both Democrats beat McCain handily in a vacuum.  The national mood is DRASTICALLY slanted toward the Democrats right now (see: the special election wins).  The only reason that this election doesn't look like a blowout in previous polls is that dug-in Clinton and Obama supporters didn't want to admit support for the other against McCain.  Note the choice of words there: ADMIT.

At this point, most Obama supporters are confident that their favorite has the nomination.  So, when they get polled, competitive instinct is no longer overriding cool reason, and they answer with their sincere preference for Clinton over McCain.

So yeah, Hillary is reaping the "unity bump" in advance of actual unity.

Why, Jerome, do you take so much stock in your Electoral College map?  Your map relies on the most recent poll in a given state, which may or may not be accurate.  I could understand using national polls -- excluding the tracking ones, which are used to measure shifts in public opinion -- since there are far more of them than state polls.

Also, just because a poll is the way it is now, that doesn't necessarily mean it won't change in the future.

Clinton and McCain are attacking Obama.

No one is attacking Clinton.

I think that's part of it.  

Also, either polls matter or they don't---if they don't, then the NC SUSA cite you did yesterday was pretty useless.  If they do, then Kos has every right to cite the VA SUSA poll today (although he should have acknowledge the NC SUSA poll).  Make up your mind.

I guess you could also cite the SUSA poll that shows Obama up 49-42 in VA...

And I think you could also interject a little intellectual honesty in to your "electoral" prognostication.

It is completely disingenuous of you to make any hard predictions or sound argument on the basis of polls taken six months before the general election.  They prove nothing and you know that.

Let's say we follow your argument out.  WE give the nom to Hill because she's currently doing better in this false metric of electoral votes.  But what happens if we did that and then get to August and September and suddenly she's not doing well at all?

I guess you and all the other Clinton supporters would owe us a pretty big apology for sticking it to the delegate winner and forcing your candidate on the more than 50% of Dems that don't support. You know, that 50% of the party that it's okay to offend and alienate.

Let's stick to what this nominating contest is about - delegates.  It is the only metric by which this race can be measured honestly.

Otherwise, why have primaries or caucuses at all?  We'll just pick our nominee on the basis of highly suspect and subjective reasoning.

So whose behaving like sychophantic hero-worshippers again?

it's the economy, even those who poll they don't trust her, somehow trust her to clean up the wastes in Washington, to fire hacks and restore professionals and experts to their rightful status, and to let them do their best.  She's no newbie, and her fighting spirt is inspirational to those of us who wished Gore had possessed some. She is seen as down-to-earth and genuinely nice. The more we see her the more we like her.  I expect her to continue to gain ground with pug women and indies, and she's got the working class blue collar vote already.

I have an indie friend from Virginia who voted for Barack but now backs Hillary. Barack made a big mistake when he mentioned in the last debate that he'd raise the cap on social security and make capital gains "fairer" by taxing it like income even if that meant an overall reduction in revenue.  

But he'll have a chance to win them, if and only if it goes to the convention, he can show us what he's made of too, he too can get specific and he too can show that he's not an out-of-touch Kerry style elite.  How hard is it to respect everyone's differences and to care about what matters? Lectures from on high do not win regular people, they've seen our leaders as out of touch all along, and this time they get to pick someone they actually like and admire.  Bush they liked, goodness knows why, but Hilary they like and admire. She's worked for everything and they alone can see that.  

Hillary Clinton is leading in the EV polls for two reasons:

Or who knows why.  Or the polls aren't accurate.  Or she's just the better candidate for May, 2008.

What poll has her up in Indiana?  I don't remember that one.

Also, I'm worried about you not voting for Obama.

Two thoughts:

1. Its way too early for the polls to be mean jack.  Contact me again in August and then we'll talk about what the polls mean.
2. You're cherry-picking polls too, SUSA had Obama up, so what?

Jeez, Jerome, so now you're reduced to cherry picking polls by outfits who have no record of polling.  And weren't you a fan of SUSA, which shows Obama beating McCain.

It's over.  She's toast.  Give it up.

There is NO mystery here.  Clinton does better in many of these head-to-head polls because a large fraction of Clinton supporters (over 50%) are saying they'll vote for McCain, stay home, or don't know.  While some Obama supporters are saying they'll bolt or stay home if Clinton is the nominee, the % is much smaller (it's about a quarter).

Because of this phenomenon, Obama wins approx. 70% of voters who describe themselves as Democrats, Clinton wins in the low 80s (in a typical year the number is approx. 90%, btw), and so Clinton looks like she's ahead even though Obama is beating her in the primary race now by approx. 10 points.  There's no contradiction here.  Both candidates, btw, do about the same in attracting indies and Republicans (with one of the big stories of the past few months, no question, being the GOP's ability to unify their party).

There is some good new for Democrats in this, btw.  The fact that Clinton and Obama are competitive at all in these head-to-head matchups shows just how strong the wind is for the Democrats this year.  In a typical year, if 20% of the Dem base told pollsters they'd defect we'd be behind by, well, 8-10 points.

The bad news, of course, is the possibility that these Democratic voters might carry out their threats.  This "I won't vote for the other candidate" business started showing up around the time of the Ohio/Texas primaries, the number of potential defectors has gotten larger every week, and the degree to which they carry out their threat will determine how damaging this protracted primary race has been.

I backed Obama, so I'll make a pitch that this rift wasn't inevitable.  It's just not possible for a candidate to argue that his or her rival is "unfit" and not have this influence people's perceptions (this shift also started around the time of the Ohio/Texas primary, and whatever complaints Clinton supporters have about Obama I don't see the argument that he's made the same sort of claim, which is why I think the % of his supporters whom might potentially defect is lower).

But, really, who knows?  If Clinton somehow got the nomination at this point, would the numbers simply reverse themselves?  Is it really the case that half of all Clinton supporters will bolt this November, or will the fraction turn out to be considerably smaller? (as seems to have happened with the GOP).

Check the crosstabs on these polls, though.  This isn't just part of the explanation, it's basically the whole thing (and not for a few polls, this shows up, essentially, in every one).  

My guess: people know that she's not going to be the nominee. Therefore when asked to chose betwenn McCain and Clinton, a question now deemed irrelevant by a vast majority, they give an irrelevant answer. Republicans may be tempted to say Clinton just to destabilize the democratic party. And also there may be an expression of sympathy for the loser.

Another factor may be that, these days, McCain attacks only Obama and Obama is very nice to Clinton. So she benefits from the support of her campaign and Obama's, and McCain's neutrality, whereas Obama is attacked directly by McCain and his legitimacy is being attacked in a more devious way by Clinton.

Still, significantly, when asked who is going to be the democratic nominee people massively answer Obama, and democrats prefer Obama.

took this from Diary by proseandpromise(before it disappears)

"I continue to marvel at this. Obama has lost five of the last seven primaries. He has won two major primaries since February 22nd, Oregon and North Carolina. He has not won enough delegates to be the nominee. But that hasn't stopped the media from reporting these false accomplishments that are fed to them by the Obama campaign, such as Obama now has a majority of the delegates. Well, big whoop. A majority of the delegates doesn't mean anything, so they keep changing the scenario; they keep changing the narrative. Obama was crushed in Kentucky. He is doing worse in key demographics than ever before, and they report the night as a big win for him."

and this ..was..said..by..
Rush L.

I think Hillary has found a message that is really resonating with a lot of the swing voters who usually determine presidential elections.  For those who criticize the electoral maps on your site, they can check elsewhere, such as Poblano (http://fivethirtyeight.com), a fervent Obama supporter who tempers poll findings with a range of other data, including state's demographics, donations to candidates, etc.

Poblano also finds  that Hillary has a 60.4% chance of winning the election against McCain, compared to a 51.6% chance by Obama.  These percentages vary day to day, but they have been trending more and more in Hillary's direction over the last few weeks (and, again, this is from a very pro-Obama analyst).

The head-to-head matchups aren't going to mean anything until the Democrats have one nominee.  All Poblano can do is work with the polls he has available (and they all include this high rate of potential Democratic defections).

If Clinton's message were really gaining her new supporters, her numbers in the Democratic primary race would be going up (she's now down by ten points).

What's happening is more of a race to the bottom: the number of Clinton supporters threatening not to vote for Obama is growing at a faster rate than the number of Obama supporters saying they won't vote for Clinton.

And if the Dems lose in November because of this, what can one say?  The Republicans certainly don't deserve to win in November, but the Dems might earn this loss.

Can Jerome make a front page post that is positive about Obama?

"More seriously, why is Clinton so far up in the latest polling in all the states, now at 326 EV's. I don't have an explanation for it, nor have I read a good one. Any ideas?"

I know, because the polls are seriously flawed.

Clinton was waaaaay ahead in polls at the start of the primaries, so how come she is loosing now? Any ideas?

Just because she is up in the polls now against McCain doesn't mean she could actually close deal. She obviously has a problem doing that.

Jerome, if you can't at least say constructive things about the dem nominee, why not just focus on saying negative things about mccain.

hillary lost, dude. it's fine if you don't want to accept that, but i don't want to suffer through a super right wing out supreme court because you guys have sour grapes.

c'mon man, can we turn our guns on mcSame now, please?

Jerome, you seem to developing a pattern to your diaries...

<bogus statements>
<snark>
<question, often snide, usually biased>

HRC is up in the electoral maps because she's threatened everyone in the US with slavery if she doesn't win the nomination.

No seriously, she's up because Obama supporters can afford to be magnanimous and say, sure, I'll support HRC as the nominee.  HRC supporters aren't ready to make a similar step, and HRC isn't interested in helping.  If the tables are turned, and HRC steals the nomination, expect HRC's numbers to nosedive.

My theory is valedictory feelings buoying her poll numbers. Or, possibly, "momentum" from winning big in WV and KY? I'll stick with the valedictory feelings, though, because I started to notice her uptrend after IN/NC. Basically, now that most people are assured she won't be the nominee, their oppositional feelings subside and it buoys her poll numbers. Basically, people planning to vote Obama who were pissed at Hillary, for whatever reason, will now admit to themselves they would vote for her ahead of McCain.

Maybe Obama supporters are saying they'd vote for Hillary in the general election, but Hillary voters are saying no preference or McCain.

That's what they seem to be telling exit pollsters, so why should this be different?

If you polled "the Democrat" vs. McCain right now, you'd probably win in a landslide.

Previously, a good chunk of Obama supporters were answering in polls that they would support McCain vs. Clinton, and a good chunk of Clinton supporters were answering in polls that they would support McCain vs. Obama.

Now, with Obama's nomination nearly wrapped up, Obama supporters are less vigilant (at least those not on the blogs) and are confessing they would in theory support Clinton vs. McCain, secure in the knowledge that that's not going to happen.  This is particularly true with Obama's African-American supporters, and you see Hillary doing substantially better among African-Americans in head-to-head matchups vs. McCain than you did a month or so ago.  They were never anti-Hillary, just pro-Obama, and bought in a little to the media-produced race baiting frenzy.

Clinton supporters, on the other hand, are staring at a Obama-McCain general election matchup in the face.  They're remaining disenchanted with the process and have not yet begun rallying around the presumptive nominee.  Whether this group does end up actually supporting Obama or not remains to be seen, and how Obama and his supporters behave will have a large bearing on the outcome of this question.

Lighten people. It was a snarky comment meant to stir the pot.

It worked! lol!

If Hillary was the presumptive Dem nominee, she'd be getting all the vetting and negative press.  (And I'm a Hillary supporter.)  So I don't think we can place too much reliance on these types of polls.  I think most Dems (not all) will rally around BO if he's nominated; same for if Hillary were nominated.  

Despite running about equal in the popular vote, Clinton runs better in the electoral college than Obama because she runs better in rural areas. Although Democrats tend to run better than Republicans in urban centers, Obama is extra strong in urban areas but relatively weak in rural areas. Moreover, Obama is extra popular in his own homestate Illinois, much more popular than McCain is in Arizona or Clinton in New York.

Thus, Clinton's support is more spread out, which favors her in the electoral college. However, if Obama can increase his poll numbers by just a few percentage points over McCain, he will start winning the electoral college by a comfortable margin.

Yeah. Ignore polls that reveal nothing this far from the election and with Clinton still trying to publicly undermine Obama.