Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK,
by Jerome Armstrong, Fri May 02, 2008 at 05:54:18 AM EDT
Here's an interesting post on predicting NC based on demographics of previous contests.
- Yesterday's polls were all Clinton. It was probably one of her best poll days in a long time. Today, the Obama supporters get a bit of relief with a poll by Zogby. I take some heat here for saying that I like Zogby, but I do-- his final poll. Before that, it's usually crap. Even in PA, just 2 days prior to the voting, Zogby had a single-day in which he touted that Obama was up 46-44. Two days later, and he had the final margin correct, showing Clinton up 51-41. He's good, usually, at showing late breaking numbers. True, he did fail mightily in CA, but his reason, that he counted on Obama turning out more of the African American vote, seemed valid at the time, following up on SC's vote. With that, here's his first numbers from NC & IN:
North Carolina Obama 50 Clinton 34 Other 16 Indiana Clinton 42 Obama 42 Other 16This alone defies expectations:After getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago, Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania. - "Downs Center", whatever that is, has a IN poll out showing Clinton up by 7 percent:
Indiana Clinton 52 Obama 45 - Jeanne Shaheen looks great in New Hampshire. Rasmussen has the latest numbers:
New Hampshire Shaheen 51 Sununu 43My counter has us picking up 4 seats in the Senate, VA, CO, NM, NH. I'd like to think there are a number of other map extensions, and that we just have 2 seats that are vulnerable, in LA and NJ. - Over in the UK, the London mayoral results will be announced shortly. It looks like the buffoon, conservative Boris Johnson, will be the next London Mayor, barring a shocking comeback by Ken Livingston. Nationally, BBC projected its National Shares as:
Conservative 44 Liberal Democrat 25 Labour 24
The Conservatives have shellacked Labour, but the Liberal Democrats also picked up seats. Here are the results thus far. While over in London a few weeks ago, I was able to go to parliament and watch Labour rollout their Budget proposal, and observe the follow through in media coverage. I was not impressed by the Labour leaders behind Gordon Brown, or their skill of presenting the budget, and am not surprised that the Conservatives, led by David Cameron, are beating their socks off. I listened to Gordon Brown's speech while he was here in the US, and it was pretty good, except for his embrace of Bush in GWOT, but overall, Labour seems tired and out of touch. The Liberal Democrats have a big opening in the UK, in the 2009 election, maybe even to become the main opposition to the Conservative Party the way this is heading.
Tags: 2008 election (all tags)
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