LA-06: The Significance of Tomorrow's Special Election

by Todd Beeton, Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:07:41 AM EDT

Tomorrow is the congressional special election in Louisiana's 6th district, which encompasses the area in and surrounding the capital city of Baton Rouge. The district is R+7 but polling has shown Democratic State Representative Don Cazayoux in the lead there, including the latest Survey USA poll (h/t Daily Kingfish).

Don Cazayoux (D) 50% (49%)
Woody Jenkins (R) 41% (42%)

The DCCC smells blood and so has upped its investment in the race including media buys, phonebanks and direct mail. Per Swing State Project:

The new expenditures tally up to $267,242, bringing the DCCC's total tab in this district to a whopping $1,185,396.

The benefits of having a congressional committee that is flush with cash. But the race means more than just an additional Democrat in congress and the DCCC knows it. This race is one of the few opportunities we'll have before November to see the excitement and increased participation inspired by the Democratic primary manifested in tangible electoral results. To that extent, this race is about more than just LA-06. Some will spin a Cazayoux win as proof of Obama's coatails in red districts but honestly I think it would be just a taste of what is going to happen in November with either candidate at the top of the ticket. However, if Cazayoux loses, or if the race ends up much tighter than polls suggest, expect it to be seen as evidence that Obama could actually be a drag downticket. The GOP is desperately trying to tie its Democratic challengers in red districts such as LA-06 and MS-01 to "liberal" Barack Obama. I suspect the tactic will backfire, but if it doesn't, cue Clinton talking points.

Per Capital briefing:

A different Freedom's Watch ad brings us to the other interesting angle in this Louisiana race -- the GOP's effort to tie Cazayoux, who is positioning himself as a conservative, to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Speaking of health care, the ad says, "Where does Don Cazayoux stand? With Barack Obama for a big government scheme."
Will this tactic work? Operatives in both parties are waiting to find out. If Cazayoux loses, supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will add another plank to their argument that Obama is unelectable in November because he can't win in conservative and rural districts. If Cazayoux wins, Obama forces can say those attacks just won't work. Either way, this contest is important in a lot more places than just Louisiana.

Update [2008-5-2 13:15:58 by Todd Beeton]:Want to help Don Cazayoux in the final hours before the election, check out his website and contact the campaign HERE.

Tags: Barack Obama, Don Cazayoux, Hillary Clinton, LA-06, Louisiana, Woody Jenkins (all tags)

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This is a good sign

I believe a Cazayoux win is proof of Obama's coatails in red districts.

Others may call that spin.

Either way its a new Dem sitting in DC where a rethug used to be.

by Silence Do Good 2008-05-02 09:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: This is a good sign

Call me Other.

But kudos to Cazayoux.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-05-02 09:37AM | 0 recs

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There must be more of you...

I hear there are others...:)

by Silence Do Good 2008-05-02 09:39AM | 0 recs

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Re: This is a good sign

I hope he'll win, but I don't see it as the same as the Foster election, which showed Obama's coattails. This would only mean that Obama won't have a negative downticket effect.

I think that as an Obama supporter I'm supposed to say "but Hillary will if she's the nominee" but I'm actually not sure. Repubs tried this tactic using Pelosi as the scary liberal in 2006, and it didn't work.

I loved the ad where the Republicans made fun of Cazayoux's name ("Cazayoux? Tax You!" [that rhymes]). Um, its Louisiana. A lot of people have that sound to their name.

This race is surprising, but the one that's shocking is Childers in MS-01. If we win there the 13th, that'd be crazy.

Oh, and LA-01 is also closer than expected, but while Reed is fantastic she's probably a bit too progressive for the district. But if she somehow manages a win, I'd start thinking that our expansion of Congressional seats in 2008 could exceed the gains we made in 2006.

by bosdcla14 2008-05-02 09:50AM | 0 recs

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Re: This is a good sign

Obama doesn't have coattails in red districts. Of course, neigher does Clinton. I personally think he is much less of a drag on candidates in red districts than she and can point to the much greater support he has from elected politicians in red states (and who better to judge their individual situations than them).

Regardless, no matter which one is our nominee, Republicans will attempt to tie local candidates to the national nominee because he or she will be far to the left of candidates in districts like this one. I really don't see this election as much of a barometer one way or another on the coattails of either of candidates.

by soccerandpolitics 2008-05-02 09:51AM | 0 recs

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Re: This is a good sign

OK, then explain IL-14

by spirowasright 2008-05-02 10:52AM | 0 recs

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Re: This is a good sign

1. Illinois, Obama's home state.

2. Not as red as LA-06.

In rethinking this, it was too absolute for me to say Obama does not have coattails in red districts. IL-14 is certainly a proven exception to my statement as an absolute rule. There may be a number of reddish districts outside the south where the Democratic candidate would welcome an Obama campaign presence

I guess the larger point I was trying to make, however, is that NO DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE for president will have coattails in districts like LA-06 or MS-01. The Republican play book will always portray the Dem nominee as too liberal and culturally out-of-touch with voters in deep red districts like these, and try to tie the local candidate to the nominee. We've seen it before and we'll see it again. To that extent, it's difficult to draw any conclusions from the success or failures of our candidates in these districts, especially without polling to tell us whether these attacks were effective and to what extent these attacks would be effective if Clinton were the frontrunner and the attacks tied the local candidate to her.

by soccerandpolitics 2008-05-02 12:21PM | 0 recs

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Re: This is a good sign

Uh, you have to be pretty credulous to believe that people are turning out for the Democrat in this special election because they're so excited about being able to vote for Barack Obama 6 months from now.

You can't have "coattails" when your name isn't even on the ballot. People missed the point back when Bill Foster got elected and they're still missing the point.

by Steve M 2008-05-02 10:05AM | 0 recs

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Please Explain

Can someone please explain to me how Obama would be more of a "drag" than Clinton in these kinds of districts if the GOP's mode of attack is to tie our nominees to the "liberaly liberal, did we mention he's liberal" Obama. I mean, that's their mantra regardless of who our Presidential nominee is, and god knows they've consistently labeled Clinton as a dirty liberal too.

Honestly, I just don't get how this is an Obama-specific thing, except to the extent that the GOP is focused on using Wright.

by HSTruman 2008-05-02 09:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: HSTruman ...

Go to here and see what the Repuglicans are doing. They're not just tying Cazayoux to Obama ... they're darkening him as well.

by DailyKingFish 2008-05-02 09:39AM | 0 recs

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And this explaines why in a Red District

The Dem is way ahead?

I doesn't explain it to me.

by Silence Do Good 2008-05-02 09:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: HSTruman ...

My tolerance for darkening arguments has been exhausted at this point. Maybe the GOP really is doing it, I wouldn't put it past them, but this is what happens when you cry wolf.

by Steve M 2008-05-02 10:03AM | 0 recs

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Thanks, Todd.

Appreciate the link love.

Ryan

by DailyKingFish 2008-05-02 09:40AM | 0 recs

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Re: Thanks, Todd.

Your blog is awesome, by the way. I've never even been to Louisiana, but I'm now fascinated by its politics, and a large part of that is due to your blog. I wound up contributing (an extremely meager amount, unfortunately) to Cazayoux because even though he's definitely more conservative than I am, you did a fantastic job in the interview of really drawing out what type of Congressman he'd be and where he stands on important issues. Kudos.

by bosdcla14 2008-05-02 09:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: Thanks, Todd.

thanks. You should be getting a letter from Don, if you haven't already received it.

by DailyKingFish 2008-05-02 03:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: LA-06: The Significance of Tomorrow's Special

If they're just tying him to Obama as being too big government, they'd be able to do the same thing with Hillary as the nominee. Different situation than if they were using Wright imo.

by Jakra 2008-05-02 09:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: LA-06: The Significance of Tomorrow's Special

If Cazayoux loses, supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will add another plank to their argument that Obama is unelectable in November because he can't win in conservative and rural districts.

Well, this Hillary Rodham Clinton supporter believes the ad is nothing but generic GOP fodder with the name of the likely Democratic nominee inserted. You can argue that something like Rev. Wright is baggage that's unique to Obama, but you can't argue that the GOP wouldn't be able to run ads that say "Democrat X supports the ultra-liberal policies of Hillary Clinton."

Of course Hillary has been demonized as a scary liberal and of course Obama will get the same treatment. That's how campaigns always work. This election means zero to me as a bellwether.

by Steve M 2008-05-02 10:02AM | 0 recs

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Re: LA-06: The Significance of Tomorrow's Special

Some will spin a Cazayoux win as proof of Obama's coatails in red districts but honestly I think it would be just a taste of what is going to happen in November with either candidate at the top of the ticket. However, if Cazayoux loses, or if the race ends up much tighter than polls suggest, expect it to be seen as evidence that Obama could actually be a drag downticket.

That formulation seems kind of harsh, to me: If Cazayoux wins, it doesn't redound to Obama's credit, but if he loses, it hurts Obama? I realize that you're bouncing from your opinion to that of the infamous passive voice mystery people, but still.

I'm with both the Obama supporters and the Hillary supporters in this thread who are of the opinion that it won't mean very much at all about either candidate, but that it might mean something about the national mood as a whole come November.

by Ray Radlein 2008-05-02 10:56AM | 0 recs

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LA-06

I don't want to sounds cocky, but I see this one ending up with a result similar to IL-14. This district is too red for it to be a Cazayoux blowout, but a clear win nontheless. Cazayoux is an appealing candidate who has run a good cmapaign. The DCCC is running a gangbusters GOTV and were smart enough to utilize local power brokers who know the area. And finally, Woody Jenkins is horribly flawed. A 6 or 7 point victory.

by RandyMI 2008-05-02 11:13AM | 0 recs

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Re: LA-06: The Significance of Tomorrow's Special

This race has nothing to do with Obama vs. Clinton. Neither candidate is involved, so it's silly to ascribe any meaning to its outcome.

Why is the DCCC, and MyDD for that matter, backing this guy? He's pro-gun, pro-life, and anti-Democrat.
There is nothing appealing at all about Cazayoux, except his party registration. With Democrats like that, who needs Republicans?

by wolff109 2008-05-02 12:39PM | 0 recs

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Do you prefer Jenkins?

Charlie Cook was right when he said there are some districts where, if you can get someone with a "D" and will elect a Democratic speaker, anything beyond that is a gift. This is one of those cases. Sure, Cazayoux may only be with us 40% of the time, But I promise you that Woody Jenkins will be against us 100% of the time. If we get an extra vote on S-CHIP and nothing else, it will have been worth it.

by RandyMI 2008-05-02 07:09PM | 0 recs