OR-Sen: Barack Obama's Coattails?
by Todd Beeton, Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:29:03 PM EDT
The Suffolk University poll excepted, Barack Obama seems to be widening the gap with Hillary Clinton in Oregon. As Jonathan posted earlier, today's Survey USA poll shows Obama up 13 points over Hillary Clinton, a net increase of 2 points from a week ago. In addition, Public Policy Polling has released its final Oregon poll showing Obama beating Clinton 56-38, a net improvement of 4 points for Obama in the past week. PPP's take:
PPP has repeatedly found similarities between Wisconsin and Oregon in its polling of the two states. Both times polling more than two weeks out tended to show Obama with a lead in the single digits. A week out his lead moved into the lower double digits. And now it's in the upper double digits. Oregon is also the only state besides Wisconsin where we've found the war as an issue on par with the economy, and that works to Obama's advantage as well.
A widening Obama lead shouldn't be too surprising, of course, considering Obama's increased presence in the state and Clinton's increased absence, but what is interesting is the effect it may have on the Oregon senate primary between Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Democratic activist/consultant Steve Novick. This could be the first actual test of Obama's coattails. As PPP observes:
The better Barack Obama does, the better Novick's chances, our poll found. Novick leads 45-34 with Obama supporters, while Merkley has a 34-30 advantage with those who are supporting Clinton. [...]Novick also has a strong advantage with men, while Merkley has the small edge with women.
Indeed, Obama's increased support in the state seems to be paralleling a late surge by Novick. It was just over a week ago that Merkley was demonstrating some real momentum but two more recent polls show Novick up, albeit within the margin of error.
| Candidate | PPP 5/17-18 | Davis Hibbitts 5/8-10 |
| Novick | 38 | 29 |
| Merkley | 33 | 23 |
| Undecided | 19 | 43 |
The absurdly high level of undecideds, especially in the Davis, Hibbitts poll, emphasizes that this is anyone's race, but one has to wonder if Obama's surge in the state will accrue to Novick's benefit. While both Novick and Merkley endorsed Obama, the Novick campaign has tried to inject the sense that Novick v. Merkley is a proxy for Obama v. Clinton into the narrative of the race and it just may be working. Merkley is a well-known progressive legislator in the state but because he was recruited to run against Smith, Novick has painted him as having an whiff of establishment to him, while skillfully casting himself as the insurgent outsider. If Novick does ride a wave of Obamania to the November ballot tomorrow, it would be somewhat ironic considering the insulting comments he made about the senator. At the same time, though, it may be a strong sign of the sort of coattails Obama may have for Democrats nationally this fall.
Tags: Barack Obama, Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen, Steve Novick (all tags)
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