Response to the Suffolk poll in OR.

  1.  These folks have NEVER done a poll in OR to my knowledge.

  2. Their crosstabs suck to be frank.  More than half their sample is 56 and about 75% is 45 and older.  The electorate will definately skew younger than that.  They polled indies, who can't vote in the primary and they don't break out any minority groups at all.

  3. Marion County is no f-ing bellweather county.  Also, doing an SPSS observation-based analysis is really quite weak.  A better bell-weather would be Washington County or even Lane or Deschutes.

I see you obviously didn't get MY application to cover the PR elections first hand.

always the bride's maid . . .

You are living in a dreamland if you think that Clinton is going to win South Dakota, and probably represents your wishful thinking rather than reality. The most recent poll showed Obama with a 12-point lead, and Clinton's average over the three latest polls to be taken is 34.7%.

What's your rationale for Clinton taking South Dakota?  

The Nebraska primary results are meaningless, because there was very low turn-out and it didn't count for anything.  And Obama still won that primary by a few percentage points.  

Will he finally accept the hopelessness of his campaign?

Obama's going to win Oregon by 13+ points. And he's going to net 12 delegates.

Oregon
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), 32
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY), 20

Kentucky
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), 17
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY), 34

Take it to the bank.

and Hillary wins Kentucky by >30%.

Obama will take both Montana and South Dakota.

Obama will NOT declare victory tomorrow instead will give a rousing speech for Dem unity and bashing the McCain/Bush economic and foreign policies.  

I think that Obama will pickup SD and it will be big.  Does anyone know if Obama is going to PR??

Are you just saying that because he's ahead by the same margins in both?  Because they're diametrically opposed in demographics, not to mention geography.  I find it bizarre to say that two states are just like each other (when in fact they could not be more different) because one candidate is consistently liked in both, and the other is not.

In all likelihood, tomorrow Obama will end the day having a clear majority of elected delegates with no possibility for Sen. Clinton to catch up even if she won every other contest. This will be a big deal, but is left out of this analysis entirely.

If Hillary wins South Dakota, I'll eat my hat.

I agree it will be closer than the polls show.  Clinton might win,although a 5 pt loss is more likely.  However, the Nebraska primary that didn't have anything to do with the actual selection process really isn't a good indicator of much.  It's one thing to argue that primaries are more legitimate than caucuses.  It's another to suggest that a "non-binding" primary conducted after the caucus that selects the delegates is a real indicator of sentiment.

New SUSA Poll shows Obama by 13.  Data here: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=43d3ad90-4714-4aef-ad28-931961 c0aaf6

Since the entire race is predicated on wining Delegates I think it would be prudent for you to mention what the total delegate count for each candidate would be. I don't think a discussion of who's gonna win each election is actually pertinent. What is important is what will each candidate end up earning and what their total delegate count end up being after the elections.

Nice try, but you left out one fact...IT ENDS TOMORROW......Frankly I find Hillary on the stump today claiming to be winning the popular vote sad and beneath the dignity she deserves.

Total pledged delegates available (w/o MI and FL) = 3244
Magic number a candidate has to win to prevent the other candidate from ever achieving a majority (1/2 of 3244) = 1622

Obama current count: 1612.5  Needs:  9.5
Clinton current count: 1442.5 Needs: 179.5

I think everyone should think of one word: CONSEQUENCES. If you allow Obama and the DNC elites to win in November, you have just given them the license to race-bait and insult women as they please - for so long as it forwards their agenda. There has to be consequences to what they have perpetrated in this election. Double-standard against the first viable female candidate, race-baiting, a biased media, a biased DNC leadership - it couldn't have been done to any other candidate except a woman.

Had it been a man who was treated that way, the backlash in the media, among the DNC leadership would have been enormous. They allowed this to happen because they bet that everyone will play nice for party unity, that no one will risk losing the Presidency. I am inviting everyone to call their bluff. I am inviting everyone to serve them the just consequences of their action. I am inviting everyone to at the very least withold their vote from Obama if he is the nominee or vote for McCain it that is necessary. This is not pettiness - it's the simple delivery of the CONSEQUENCES of their actions.

Who can win in November?  Here's something ABC News got a hold of:

http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/ McCainClintonObama051608.pdf

Oregon creates a serious problem for those pushing the "only Clinton can win the white, working-class vote".  The minority population of Oregon is quite low and the median income is below the national median.  Shouldn't this be Clinton country?

It's also an important swing state in November - it's a bit disturbing that she can't be more competitive there and that she's not polling better against McCain in states like this.

The real positive aspect in this Primary is turnout.
My call?
Sen. Clinton by 27% over Sen Obama in KY
Sen. Obama over Sen. Clinton 20% in OR

We will see who the SD's come out for on Wed.
...but hey most of us already know....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxNf2uCxd 3E

Why would anyone vote for Edwards now?

I cannot wait to see a Kentucky blowout tomorrow night. I wonder what his excuse will be, or to blunt the message from Kentuckians, some new superdelegate will come out and endorse Obama, this time to try to influence Puerto Rico, and that will fail miserably.

I'll go with Obama in OR and a 54-46 result, and Clinton over Obama & Edwards in KY by a 62-32-5 margin.

I'm also gonna go out on a limb for now, and predict that Clinton takes SD, splitting the contests on June 3rd, a closed primary (for which the recent NE primary results are a good current prognosticator).  Obama should do very well in MT.

I hope you're not putting money on that. Obama dominates the Great Plains and the West in general. The Nebraska primary is irrelevant. Like the Florida and Michigan contests, it didn't count for anything. You can't project real numbers from a fake election.

As for Oregon, Obama should win by at least 10 points. As Jonathan noted, people who have already voted have favored Obama by 9 points. The spread among likely voters is even higher.

After tomorrow, Senator Obama will have clinched the pledged delegate lead. And even after Senator Clinton's large win in West Virginia, superdelegate endorsements have heavily favored Obama.

Those who are desperately clinging to the idea of a Clinton nomination will have to count on Michigan/Florida being seated with Obama receiving no delegates from Michigan. Not only is this scenario ridiculous and unlikely, but it would also still fail (in all likelihood) to win Clinton the nomination.

If she wants to keep campaigning she can go ahead. But I hope you, Jerome, as well as the other Clinton supporters on this site realize that there is a 99% chance of Obama being our nominee in the fall.

Obama won EVERY state bordering South Dakota by over 25 points. (Except Iowa, which he still won handily)  What, pray tell, has inspired you to 'go out on a limb' on SD?