He's losing AA voters in addition to white voters now?

Just a hunch, no numbers to back it up.

to counter the 5-0 margin of earlier, we need more than to keep pace, but for now its good. After big wins we will start outpacing in terms of S.Ds!!!

this Obama "slide" hasn't even come close to replicating the Clinton "slide" of two weeks ago.

To noone's surprise,  you failed to capture it.

I think his denunciation reinforced Wright's comments, that Obama will follow the polls and as a politician say what he has to say. Compare his comments when Wright first appeared to his comments a few days ago.

Whatever people like Joe Scarborough may say, Obama cannot put this behind him.

Why he stayed 20 years is the issue, not whether he throws Wright under a bus.  People are smarter than some politicians give them credit for.

The rolling average didn't necessary show daily drops after the denunciation. We'll have to see tomorrow if the denunciation helped him.

The better numbers from Obama have dropped out of the rolling sample. He could have the same exact numbers on Wednesday as he did on Monday, but Sunday is not in the picture.

Since we don't know what the one day results are, that is as plausible a scenario as a drop following the divorce.

Myabe it is because McCain and Clinton have been getting a free ride while people (like those on this site and in the media) continue to smear Obama with baseless crap.

Oh and Jerome, when did you start taking National daily tracking polls as gospel?

What seems most noticeable about the polling is that Obama didn't start tanking until after he 'denounced' Wright. Why is that?

Obama responded to Wright the day after Wright's press appearance, so I'm not sure why you are tying the poll numbers to Obama's response and not the Wright appearance.  Any event takes a day or two to filter into the poll results.

oh, and fix your EV calculator. Clinton loses MN in the latest poll. NC is tied on the Obama side.

Two things

1)  many people watched the press conference coverage and watched all of it and KNOW for themselves what Wright is about.

2)  Obama got angry at the being called a politician part and NOT the other parts.  In renouncing him he clearly shows that he is reacting to people watching Wright and not to what Wright said which most people can see is what he usually says.  People don't believe Wright changed his positions or voicing of his positions to hurt Obama.

This cuts to Obama's credibility and he has many other mini scandals where he is relying on his credibility to say no no Rezko didn't ask anything for his $600,000 to buy my garden etc.

political expediency? I sure did, I'm sure he was mad, but he was mad because it was hurting his poll numbers.  Maybe A.As are mad he denounced him, if they really saw it as an attack on their culture, they naturally wouldn't like Obama backing down on it.

Who knows... maybe his denunciation came too late and the image was already stuck in people's minds and maybe people are finally starting to pay attention to polls in OH.FL.PA

Obama better have a blow out in North Carolina to save his campaign.  Otherwise, he will continue to collapse.  

Obama's polling is bad all around

There is a new indiana tracking poll , showing his numbers collapsing too.

http://www.theindychannel.com/politics/1 6106143/detail.html?rss=ind&psp=news

Clinton gets 4 super delegates

http://thepage.time.com/

This is the first Gallup survey to be completely post-Wright's comments on Monday, where the controversy really hit.

What seems most noticeable about the polling is that Obama didn't start tanking until after he 'denounced' Wright. Why is that?

Because he pissed of a big chunk of his base (i.e., those who agree with Rev. Wright)

One thing is certain, the media has jumped off of the Obama bandwagon and hitting him hard, rightly so! Obama's flip flop on Rev Wright is seen by many as nothing more than pandering to voters, and quite frankly disingenuous and dishonest. First it's "I can't disown Rev Wright anymore than I can disown my family." Then it's "I disown you for your ridiculous comments." Well which is it Obama? You can't have it both ways because your dropping in the polls and your campaign is now in trouble.

Maybe because its a tracking poll, with which one can measure trends, but as such requires a few more days measurement than just one.

Interesting that the Obama "rebound" after PA, despite lasting for a week didn't pique Jerome's interest, but somehow two tracking polls with a single day's Clinton favor make two posts.

Jerome just posted this earlier:

"I usually stay away from the tracking polls"
and now he's posting tracking polls?

Apparently losing a single point over two days is "tanking".

Timber!!

This is the first time that I can remember, in a long time, that Obama's loss of support directly contributes to Clinton's rise in support. So instead of switching between undecided and Obama, respondents are for now moving from Obama to Clinton, the first time in a very long time that this has happened.

he should withdraw NOW, before his crushing defeats in NC and IN.

OH, WOW! What about the will of the people?

When do people in the state of Gallup vote in their primary?

change in the race since South Carolina.

It is the first time Clinton has improved her standing in a state BEFORE the weekend prior to election day.

The question is whether Obama can hang on in North Carolina.

What seems most noticeable about the polling is that Obama didn't start tanking until after he 'denounced' Wright. Why is that?

He threw his friend, minister, spiritual advisor, baby bapitzer, marriage minister, and fatherlike figure, under the bus for political convenience.

Everyone has crazy friends and families, but most people don't denounce them publicly.

If Obama & Wright cooked up a scheme to prod a denouncement, then it might've back-fired on them.

Some people actually value loyalty, even in the face of seeming disloyalty.

I'm left wondering what those down ticket endorsers are going to do. I know Childers stiffed Obama but does anyone know about the Dem candidates in NC? Are they fighting back against the Wright ads or are they rolling up into a fetal position? And if they are dragged down in a Dem primary what does that say about the Wright issue?

Unless a Gallup poll shows her with a 20 point lead, or an Indiana poll shows her winning 62-38, or in NC she is winning 58-42...They mean nothing, she needs something BIG, Real BIG...

Plus I thought red states like NC and IN didn't matter

Re: denouncement
Maybe it didn't work and people don't buy a denouncement that lasts 5 minutes when you have a 20 year history with the man?

STOP hurting the Dem nominee's chances. At this point, I'll take either one over McSame.  I'm a Hillary supporter, but Obama would be a BIG improvement over 4 more years of Bush.  Jerome, your selective choice of polls to track is as biased as Kos'.  Support your candidate, but stop hurting the other one.  Think about it, will you vote for McSame if your candidate doesn't get the nomination?  NO WAY!  So stop acting like that will happen.  Geez, we're our own worst enemy right now.  Who needs the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy when we have these blogs?
   

Does Clinton really want to win this way?  I can understand wanting to see a Republican go down on trumped up character issues, but to cheer with glee as good Democrat gets tagged as what?, a sleeper black nationalist?

Icky and gross.  This isn't the party I signed up for.  

of course his numbers have gone down. Have you watched MSM news lately??? 24 hour a day coverage or Reverend Wright. This too shall pass.

I tend to think that things actually take a few days to settle in.  I think this polls are residual effects of the Wright coverage.  I think that the polls are always a day or two slow in picking up what's going on in the news.  I don't know if I'm right, but that's what I've thought this whole election cycle.

Look how many times that graph criss-crosses! Obama's "slide" (which is not nearly as far as Clinton's) doesn't really mean anything.

Hate to rain on your parade, but wasn't Clinton in third place at this point in '92 (before Perot dropped out the first time)?  

Obama will get the 283 he needs for the nomination, and the contrast between him and McCain will make it all but inevitable that he wins in November.

I know it, Barack, you just can't win lately.  You stand up for Wright and you get slammed, you renounce him and you get slammed.  You're sounding like it's really getting to you, which is only human, which means you've got to fall back to the plan.  Why you are doing this.

The pundits and networks are trying to Dean-Scream you with this Wright thing.  Pretty amazing, isn't it?  The guy says the US has killed innocent civilians and everyone acts shocked.  Wright could have put it differently, but you mean to tell me thousands of Iraqi civilians haven't been killed by US bombs and firing into cars at checkpoints?   But you're trying to win an election, and that's a downer.

That means, to stop from veering off in all directions, giving a history lesson on one hand and telling white America they're not all evil on the other, you need to pull back to message.  You need to say, Look, this is what always happens whenever someone gets too close to the real problem, the disappearance of the middle-class and all the bridges that used to let Americans go from one class to another, just working hard and not needing to be a financial genius.  Bridges like college affordability and worker training. They want to get your minds off the fact that your jobs went overseas or to Mexico, and even if your kids are bright and have the grades they probably can't afford their first-choice college.  They want you to forget that a very small number of people have benefited from the lion's share of tax breaks while you can still barely make ends meet.

So here's what you do, Barack.  They'll work the social divisions like always, whether it's gay marriage, abortion, or school prayer, unless you show that poor black people and poor white people have more in common than they have dividing them, which is why the billionaires running the networks are trying to stop this Obama phenomenon.  Anyone who says, "We have to disaggregate tax policy between the wealthy and the working class or middle class," like you did, is dangerous.  Because once you touch on the idea that the interests of the very rich might not be the interests of everyone, well hell, everything that keeps them getting richer no matter what happens might come crashing down.

Do what you do best, which is thinking and uniting.  And not by tearing old Jeremiah a new one - yes, he should have shut up after you asked him to, when you explained to him that people can't handle too much truth at once.  The last guy who tried that got nailed to a cross.  I mean Wright didn't have to say 9/11 was "payback," that's a little harsh, but you mean the CIA didn't overthrow the democratic president of Iran, Mossadeq, in 1953?   And install the bloody Shah, which led to the Iranian Revolution and furthered Middle East extremism?  Give me a break.

You need to pull out of this nosedive where the talkingheads are, AGAIN, going to snooker people into voting against their own interest, for a woman whose husband fairly personified NAFTA and all those other free trade agreements which they lied would help everyone, but were really aimed at their fat-cat businessman contributors.  Sure, that was Bill, but Hillary, as a co-equal like she always says, said not one word against those agreements when she could have politely disagreed with her husband, the way even Laura disagrees with George about some things.

You need to announce the American First Choice College Initiative.  (AMFCHOICE?  Help me out here.)  You've got to think big or media hyenas will keep circling and tearing of little pieces out of you.

The idea is, in the first 100 days of an Obama administration, any American student will have the funds to go to the best school he or she can get into, or wants to go to, from the Opportunity Fund.  Max-out what a poor or middle-class parent will pay, and Uncle Sam takes care of the rest. In one very real,  concrete way Obama is REBUILDING the bridges to the middle-class.

No kid should have to go to Iraq for college money.  The dirty little secret is, over the past 25 years, fewer and fewer kids have been able to afford their first choice college.

Here's the kicker: It's financially do-able.  Since you're getting us out of a Iraq, like you said in your Superbowl ad, that $100 billion or so we spend every year could go to this program.  Joe Stiglitz calls this the $3 trillion war.  "Unmet college need," a rough measure of what this program would cost, runs at about $30 billion a year.  Do you know how many times $30 bill fits into $3 trill?  You don't want to know.  Put your numbers crunchers on it, the guys you pay, and they should be able to come up a some good estimates in under 24 hours.  It isn't rocket science. It's arithmetic.  $100 billion minus $30 billion gives you a year plus two more of a fully funded program.  Kill that idiotic Star Wars, and we've got the money forever.

Here's your sticker, I want credit:

Obama: Building Bridges, Uniting Americans

Make them forget that you're black, and they're white, and make them remember we're all in this together.  And if you really use this idea, I want a job.  The Bush economy got me too.

at http://ralphlopez1.blogspot.com/

And it will again.

"What seems most noticeable about the polling is that Obama didn't start tanking until after he 'denounced' Wright. Why is that?"

Because its still too soon to register?  Obama's bounce will start to show up in the coming days.

With negative blogs like these (those of you who disparage the other Dem candidate, know who you are!), who needs the Right Wings talking points? You all are providing them here. You all will look pretty stupid in 2 months swallowing your words and supporting the candidate you bad-mouthed so badly. (Don't think you'll jump on the band wagon of the other candidate if yours loses?  Just imagine 4 years of McSame!) Now, start being suppportive.  Thou shall not bad mouth a fellow DEM!

THANK GOD!! HRC WILL WIN THE NOMINATION AND THE GENERAL!

I hope so too.

You sHillaries are hillarious. So the tracking poll MATTERS today huh? Whatever, Whatever, Obama will be the Nominee. To paraphrase my favorite WCW/WWF/WWE Wrestler Rick Flair... "Whether you LIKE IT OR NOT...HATE IT OR LOVE IT...Obama is STILL the best thing going today". You can twist in the wind all day and all night. You can cherry pick poll after poll after poll. You can gleefully rub your hands together and jump up and down chanting REVEREND WRIGHT all day long. In fact, light a couple of candles and do it before you go to bed to give yourself the warm and fuzzies. But the FACTS, which you sHillaries love to brush aside, line up something like this....

FACT: Hillary is still eating Obama's dust...she who was supposed to be the "Inevitable" nominee with 1009790279 years of experience couldn't beat a Freshman senator from Chi-town.

FACT: She trails in states won  
FACT: She trails in Delegates
FACT: She trails in the popular vote (keep crying about FL and MI being seated)
FACT: Recent days has Obama leading in Superdelegates.

Its over. Elvis is dead, Bigfoot doesnt exist, Aliens did NOT crash land at Roswell, and HILLARY IS DONE.

But you know, keep picking the favorable poll of the day if it makes you feel better. Keep hope alive Shillaries!

Oh and when Obama is back ahead..will the Gallup poll still matter? LOL

Please let me know how sour the grapes taste!