Fourth Penn. Poll in Five Puts Race Within Margin of Error
by Jonathan Singer, Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 10:09:42 PM EDT
American Research Group, which doesn't have a particularly great track record thus far during the Democratic primaries, has a new poll up out of the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, and the results look a little something like this:
Hillary Clinton: 45 percent (51 percent in late March)
Barack Obama: 45 percent (39 percent in late March)
From the internals of the poll:
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 53% to 36% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 52% to 39%.
Clinton leads 52% to 36% among white voters (80% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 9% among African American voters (16% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Obama leads 52% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (52% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 38% among voters age 50 and older.
27% of all likely Democratic primary voters and 41% of likely Democratic primary voters age 18 to 49 say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
As alluded to before, ARG's performance throughout this year's primaries doesn't instill a whole heck of a lot of confidence in the veracity of this particular poll. Then again, looking through the other recent polling out of the state from both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics, four out of the past five surveys (including this ARG survey) show the race within the margin of error. As such, there's real reason to believe that the race in the Keystone state has seriously tightened upSo even in just the past couple of weeks (even though Pollster puts Hillary Clinton's lead in the state at 9 points and RCP put it at 6.6 points).
What is important to remember now is this, though: In previous contests we have seen the situation in which Barack Obama has been able to eat away at Clinton's lead ahead of balloting only to come out the eventual loser in the end. In states like Texas, Ohio and New Hampshire, Obama's seeming (though not necessarily actually apparent) late momentum ended up hurting him in the long run as expectations were raised but not met. So while it seems apparent that Obama has cut away much of Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania two weeks out from the state's Democratic primary, a lot can and still will happen before voters go to the poll, so nothing should be taken for granted on either side of the contest.