so this is a complete shift since February, though you note that since Feb. 5th you noted he has been trending downwards the entire time.

which means that Obama is a weakening candidate, but still polls ahead of Hillary in national match ups, so she is just weak if not more so.

After he clinches the nomination and can focus on McCain, Obama will get them back.

They have little choice at this point.

Perhaps more McSame and less Clinton/Obama is in order...

The basis for Obama's support among Independents was his willingness to campaign on a positive basis of unity and not on mudslinging. It was to take us to a new kind of politics. Independents don't like Hillary Clinton as a person and view her as cynical and dishonest. But, as the 22% of Pennsylvanians who thought Clinton was dishonest but voted for her anyway reveal, voters may be more concerned about the economy than character.

What pushes Indies more to Clinton now, however, is Obama's decline into the muckery of negative campaigning. While some want him to fight hard all the time, the basis of his support all along has been his ability to move politics in a new direction.

The Reverend Wright issue is largely cover for those who never liked Obama. The same is true with Bittergate.  Independents who once supported Obama know damn well that Obama is no black nationalist or out-of-touch elitist. But they also worry that he's become just another politician, and that hurts him tremendously. Notice how in Obama's denunciation of Wright he fixated on the "politician" remark; the cynicism implied in Wright's "politician" comment directly undermined the basis of Obama's campaign.

I think its due to Obama having stopped attacking Clinton (which only served to harden her supporters against him).

Now, there's a whole echo chamber here in the netroots that continues to attack Clinton, but given that Obama is dissociated with anything partisan-blog related, it doesn't make it outside the chamber, and has little effect-- which is one reason why they may continue going even crazier, and even less listened too, if Obama continues his slide. It also is why none of the mainstream press covers the bit of discontent that has happened over the net among Obama supporters, over his Fox appearance. They talk with the Obama campaign, and it never comes up, then or now.

Which I think says something very positive about the discipline of that campaign, something that has and should prove useful.

The right wing pundits are billing the contest as The Leftist (Obama) vs. The Pragamatist (Hillary).  If that is how the right sees them, odds are independents have a similar view.  I imagine independents are more likely to go for a pragmatist than a leftist.

I don't know if I agree that Obama is such a leftist but in politics perception is everything.

New Poll Showing a reversal in NC.  Clinton takes the Lead.

Interesting.

So actually one of Obama's chief arguments to Supers has now been eliminated.

This is becoming excruciating. Obama cannot lose the elected delegates or the poplar vote. Even espite the Wright stuff, the supers have moved overwhelmingly towards Obama since Super Tuesday.
Baring a disaster on the magnitude of a plane crash, Clinton has lost -- primarily because she ran an arrogant and bad campaign until very recently. I feel like the Clintonistas are dancing on the heads of pins. It's over. And this is fron someone who -- while an Obama supporter --never had a problem with  voting for Senator Clinton if she got the nod.

when it's not a caucus state of hyper-motivated people, Clinton can hold her own among some segments of the younger voters. She tied according to the exit polls, all voters under 30 in California and tied among white voters under 30 in Ohio and PA.

Here is Obama' Wright problem from the WSJ/NBC poll:

Fifty-four percent of respondents in the survey said that they identify with McCain's background and his set of values, compared with 35 percent who didn't feel that connection.

By contrast, Obama (45 vs. 46 percent) and Clinton (46 vs. 46 percent) received split scores on this question. Obama's score, in fact, is a significant drop from last month, when 50 percent of voters said they identified with his background and values, versus 39 percent who said they didn't.

comment again.  Middle of the primary!  And June 1992! "Six months are a lifetime in politics."

while you might be right Todd, I think the mere fact that you're comparing VA & WI to TX & OH as if they're apples to apples is pretty far off the mark.

here are two other states worth looking at that don't fit in the nicely defined pattern in the original diary (independent voters):

MS 55o-43c (Republican voters: 75-25 for Clinton).
VT was 65o-35c

I don't care who you support, we need to start looking at numbers with a bit more scrutiny. That means understanding the underlying demographics at play from each state.

They're starting to panic.

Gummy bears?

Panic, I tell you.

It ain't gonna be pretty around here next week.

I wish everybody would just calm down for a minute and understand that general election polls taken right now--in the heat of the most contested primary battle in decades, in which the two prominent figures are a black man and a woman, no less--are absolutely, unequivocally, undeniably meaningless.  

Go back to any poll taken this far out and you'll see that the predictive value of them is minimal.  

Once we have a winner, then we'll have a much better idea of how each of our potential candidates stacks up against Grandpa Moneybags McSame.

So we're quoting FOX news polls as reliable.

Good one.

Meh.  Both Democrats can beat McCain.  The polls are just doing what they always do: swinging left and right.

Obama has been up by 10, Clinton has been up by 10.  I have every confidence that when the Democratic nominee is selected they will receive a significant boost in these polls and the Democratic party will do everything in their power to ensure a win in November.

... reached a tipping point this week, when Clinton nosed ahead of Obama in the "who's more likely to beat McCain if the election were held today" contest.

Last night's runs give Obama 30.7% and Clinton 43.2% chances of beating McCain.

Note, Obama drops FL, PA OH, MO, but makes it up with chances in NE, TX, ND, SC (all of which estimates rest on stale head-to-head polling).