Final PA Polls...Really
by Todd Beeton, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:29:24 AM EDT
There are three new polls out of PA, which were in the field yesterday and again there are some mixed messages, with Zogby and Suffolk showing double digit (and expanding) leads for Hillary Clinton, while Insider Advantage shows Clinton losing ground.
| Candidate | Suffolk U 4/20-21 (4/19-20) | Insider Advantage 4/21 (4/20) | Zogby 4/20-21 (4/19-20) |
| Clinton | 52 (52) | 49 (49) | 51 (48) |
| Obama | 40 (42) | 42 (39) | 41 (42) |
| Undecided | 6 (4) | 9 (12) | 6 (6) |
Another uncertain indicator is undecideds. Depending on who is polling, they either are moving from Barack to undecided, from undecided to Barack or not at all. So who is to be believed? I've heard a couple pundits lately bullish on Obama's chances, feeling like the movement in the state is really in his direction, but this always seems to be accompanied by an underestimation of the extent to which the electorate is still torn even going into election day. When I was in Philadelphia I still sensed some indecision on the part of even ready made Obama voters, weighing Clinton's "get things done" model of the presidency with his inspirer in chief model. No matter how nationalized we think this election has been, people are having the same conversations in Pennsylvania in April as they were in California in February. So I think some of those who think Obama has a chance underestimate this; however, whereas just last week it looked as though undecideds defaulted to Hillary, Mark Blumenthal notes that that may no longer be the case.
So merely looking at the numbers above, part of me wants to amend my 8% Clinton win prediction upward, but then again my gut is telling me to hold off. Thoughts?
Update [2008-4-22 11:39:36 by Todd Beeton]:A-ha, and good old ARG is out with its final poll, also showing Clinton pulling away with 56-40, a 3 point net gain for her. For sake of comparison, in Ohio where Clinton ultimately won by 10%, ARG's final poll had her up 14%, Zogby had it tied up and Suffolk had Clinton up by 12%. What would have been helpful is if Survey USA had had a final poll, since they've been remarkably prescient this cycle to judge if the late breaking movement for Clinton is real. Right now it looks like it is.
Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania Primary (all tags)
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