Undecided Superdelegates More Moved By "Electability" Than "Will Of The People"
by Todd Beeton, Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 06:33:33 AM EDT
Whether we like it or not, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are going to need superdelegates to put them over the top to win the nomination, so both campaigns have been waging their own superdelegate persuasion campaigns. Obama's case: superdelegates should go with the pledged delegate leader; Clinton's case: it's the electability, stupid.
While Obama supporters have been running an Obama inevitability campaign focusing on the message that it's the superdelegates' duty to simply ratify a slim pledged delegate plurality, a new AP poll of undecided superdelegates indicates that Howard Dean's repeated advice that superdelegates are called on to vote their conscience and Hillary Clinton's appeals to electability have won the superdelegate message war.
From The AP:
About 250 superdelegates have told the AP they are undecided or uncommitted. About 60 more will be selected at state party conventions and meetings this spring.AP reporters across the nation contacted the undecideds and asked them how they plan to choose. Of those, 117 agreed to discuss the decision-making process.
- About a third said the most important factor will be the candidate who, they believe, has the best chance of beating Republican John McCain in the general election.
- One in 10 said the biggest factor will be the candidate with the most pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses.
- One in 10 said what matters most is who won their state or congressional district in the primary or caucus.
- The rest cited multiple factors or parochial issues.
I was intrigued by the video of Howard Dean I linked to above. He acts as though superdelegates' simply stating publicly whom they intend to support is an official act of voting and once the number crosses the magical threshold of delegates needed to secure the nomination it will be decided. Certainly, the media too is acting that way, updating delegate counts every time a superdelegate announces but part of me wonders if that will be enough of a bar for the candidate on the losing end to accept losing the nomination. As we've seen before, some superdelegates have ridden the fence, saying while they have personally supported a certain candidate for the nomination, they reserve the right to switch when it comes to casting a vote at the convention. The very fact that superdelegates were designed to vote their conscience means all bets may be off once the convention begins, so one wonders if the losing candidate (and the supporters thereof) will indeed step aside merely as a result of superdelegates' putting his or her opponent over the edge with their public statement of support. Howard Dean would of course like this to be over by July 1 and to bring that about is calling on superdelegates to reveal their preferences "yesterday." Ultimately, though, that could be wishful thinking.
Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, superdelegates (all tags)
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