Paddick will be eliminated on the first vote - where his 2nd pref goes will determine the winner. It will be tight.

The LibDems nationally are struggling under their new leader. They seem rather becalmed and you have thought with Labour's woes they would be well up in the polls.  

Labour's problem is that they are suffering the same malady as Democrats did in the late 90's through 2004. They are drifing through the center trying to be all things to right and left. Participating in the war seriously alienated the left and, had the Liberal Democrats been a more viable alternative, would have lost the last parliamentary elections. If the Tories have their shit together the way you describe, Labour will be devatated.

Whilst Paddick is a reasonable alternative, there's really only one choice, and that's Red Ken. He must be wishing that Labour had never taken him back into the fold now (the party expelled him years back for disloyalty), because their repulsive brand is probably as responsible for his present difficulties as anything else. Johnson is an upper-class idiot who still uses words like 'pickaninny', and it will be a shameful mark against the world's greatest city should they elect him.

Please note that the yougov polls have consistently given Johnson a lead, whereas other polls show the race a dead heat or better for Ken. The Evening Standard also hates, hates, HATES Red Ken, and  will go to any lengths to undermine him.

Bottom line: Ken ain't perfect, but who is. He's still the best man for the job, and has done wonders for reinvigorating London's mass transit (especially bus lines)whilst cutting pollution at the same time via the congestion charge.

was pretty good. Sounds like an entertaining race. Lots of populism going on.

I think the vehicle to making a left-wing party in the UK lies in Labour, not in the Lib-Dems. The Lib-Dems were founded as a centrist alternative to Labour and the Tories, and it seems to me that they aren't going to deviate very far from their core base of beliefs. True, short term, Lib Dems are often to the left of New Labour, but ultimately the vehicle to a center-left party in England means restoring Labour back to some of its roots.

Hmmm very intersting, I love international politics when it's slow over here.

But really what does this have to do with the progressive agenda we need to make a sucess in America.

Not hating, but I just feel we keep putting these non-usa stories up as a distraction.

I doubt the new MAYOR of london will help make any difference over here.
Does he have any pull over the PM?

We need to get out of Iraq, and the only question we need to ask the Brits is why they haven't left yet.

Had they just left, bush would have lost his already broken feet he tries to stand on.

"painting environmental conservatism as a Conservative position"

Wow!... wouldn't it be nice to live in a country where the CONSERVATIVE position is for increased environmental protections?

Go vote!

http://www.obamain30seconds.org

Hello from London. Paddick despite his great qualities has come across as a dull plodder in this campaign. He has no chance. Boris is a touch flakey and  a political moderate. Ken had a great first term but his second term has been a failure.  He's spent the last 4 years  flitting around the world establishing useless and costly London embassies in Havana and Caracas and welcoming gay-bashing, jew-hating  imams to london. At home,violent crime is rising and the transportation system is crumbling.If i could vote here,it would be Paddick with Boris my second choice.

Again, why all the talk of mayoral races in London?

Do we have alot of expats on here?

Because as awesome as the English system is, I don't see how it is relevant today.

America is facing huge turmoil and a national election, with so many more issues Im not sure how the nuanced election in london matters.

Unless of course one canidate says they are pulling out of Iraq unconditionally ASAP

I like Brian Paddick. He should be running the Metropolitan Police, and Ian Blair should be up on charges of conspiracy to murder Jean-Charles Menezes. Paddick's openly gay, presided over effective decriminalisation of cannabis in Brixton and is just about the only senior London police officer to have had good relations with his borough.

But the oxygen in the race just isn't there for him, his environmental proposals seem poorly thought out and he's not a great campaigner.

It'll go down to the second preferences of supporters of Paddick and the Green candidate, Sian Berry (who is telling her voters to put Livingstone as a second choice), but I think Livingstone will probably eke out a narrow win. Assuming our Prime Minister doesn't do anything else stupid to tarnish the Labour brand, like his moronic stand on abolishing the 10p tax rate has done.

Long term, however, the Lib Dems are not the best vehicle for a move to the left in Britain. I can see why they appeal to Jerome, as at their best they're a lot like Mark Warner - technocratic centrists in conservative areas with a focus on innovation and a good understanding of the media.

Most of the time, however, they're gadflies, less competent than they claim, given to very dirty campaigning and far too economically libertarian for comfort. Many of their votes have come from centre-right voters who the Tories have alienated (and Cameron bringing them back onside has led to their national numbers sinking).

Labour is currently very badly tarnished, but if the Old Guard is ousted almost en masse (which seems likely to happen fairly quickly if we lose the next general election) and we start sticking up for our voters rather than City financiers then we're much better positioned to gain back the voters than the Lib Dems are to become the new second force in British politics. All the Lib Dems are really doing right now - as a party, that is, since their MPs (some of whom are execellent) don't really form a homogenous group - is fracturing the anti-Conservative vote.