Second Straight Indiana Poll Puts Obama Up 5 Points
by Jonathan Singer, Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 11:44:49 AM EDT
A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll released this week put Barack Obama ahead 5 points in Indiana, 40 percent to 35 percent. This was the first public polling released out of the state since February to show Obama leading Hillary Clinton, a fact, which coupled along with the very high proportion of undecideds, led to a degree of hesitance (at least on my part) to put much stock in the numbers. But perhaps the numbers were not so far off after all. A SurveyUSA poll commissioned by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics also finds a 5-point Obama edge, 50 percent to 45 percent.
Clinton's most solid support comes from the most partisan Democrats (51% Clinton to 45% Obama), with weaker Democratic identifiers, independents, and most Republicans tending to support Obama.Obama outperforms Clinton with Indiana men (55% to 42%) while women are for Clinton (48% to 46%)--but within the margin of error.
Likely Indiana Democratic primary voters over 50 prefer Clinton to Obama (53% to 42%) while Obama leads among the voters under 50 (59% to 36%).
Meanwhile, white Democratic primary Hoosier voters also fall within the margin of error on vote preference with 48% indicating they would support Clinton and 47% who would support Obama. Obama dominates among African-Americans 78% to 17%.
The effects of income and education follow similar patterns concerning Democratic primary support. Higher educated likely Democratic primary voters support Obama while the less educated of these voters support Clinton. Clinton does relatively better than Obama among those with lower incomes, while Obama does particularly well among the highest income Hoosiers in this voting block.
This survey was entirely in the field before the last Democratic debate, so the sentiments of those Hoosier voters do not reflect a reaction to the latest back and forth in the race between Clinton and Obama. However, for whatever it's worth, the survey has given both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics enough data from which to formulate a trend estimate and a poll average, respectively. According to Pollster, Clinton's lead now sits at 49 percent to 43 percent, while RCP average has Clinton up 46.0 percent to 43.8 percent. What we do know for sure at this point is this: Three of the last five polls released in the state have the race within the margin of error, with one more survey just a point outside of that margin, so this sure looks like a close race at this juncture.
Tags: 2008, Democratic primaries, Indiana, Indiana Primary (all tags)
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