Weren't Obama's Comments Supposed to Hurt Him?
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:21:52 AM EDT
With all of the hubbub over Barack Obama's comments over the weekend, one might assume that his support within the Democratic electorate might begin to shrink, in the short term, at the least, and perhaps also in the long term. What says Gallup on the subject? Not so much.
Barack Obama, who has come under attack by his presidential rivals for describing small-town voters as "bitter," seems to be weathering the storm to this point as far as voters are concerned. He maintains a 10 percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, 50% to 40%, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking.That 10-point lead matches Obama's best of the campaign, and even as the controversy has dominated the political airwaves, Obama's support remained strong in tracking interviews conducted on Saturday and Sunday. It is likely Clinton and Republican John McCain will continue to remind voters of the remarks, and the possibility remains that it could affect voters in the coming days, but so far they seem unaffected by the controversy.
Obama has now held a significant lead over Clinton in Democratic voters' nomination preferences for the last eight days, averaging roughly an 8-point lead, compared with the current 10-point spread. During this time, 50% of Democratic voters have supported him on average, matching the latest figure for interviewing conducted April 11-13. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
The important thing to note here is that two of the three days this poll was in the field (and thus presumably two-thirds of all interviews) came over the weekend, a period during which the airwaves were saturated with obsessing about Obama's comments. In other words, this was not a particularly low information period of time but rather a period in which Obama's admittedly poorly phrased statement was fresh in the minds of voters. Indeed, as Todd noted earlier today, Rasmussen Reports polling found that a majority of voters (all of whom were interviewed over the weeked) had followed the story at least somewhat closely, with 25 percent following the story very closely.
It is certainly the case that as voters have more time to digest this story their sentiments could begin to change, and they could view Obama in a more negative light and become less likely to support him. Let me emphasize that it could happen, not that I think it necessarily will. Yet judging by these Gallup numbers (as well as Rasmussen numbers that also have not recorded downward movement for Obama), it sure doesn't look like there's much real immediate fallout from Obama's comments.
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic primaries (all tags)
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