AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than On Clinton

Wow, look at McCain go! The media's favorite maverick has bounced to a tie with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in their latest general election match-up. And The AP's Nedra Pickler can hardly contain her excitement.

Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama's 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday.

The survey showed the extended Democratic primary campaign creating divisions among supporters of Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee.

McCain is benefiting from a bounce since he clinched the GOP nomination a month ago.

And what a bounce it is. McCain has the nomination locked up and is arguably at his peak right now and all he can eke out in a general election match-up is a tie. Gotta love it. But what is interesting is where McCain has seen his biggest gains.

The four-term Arizona senator has moved up in matchups with each of the Democratic candidates, particularly Obama.

An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent.

This does go against the grain a bit, as most polls show Obama performing better against McCain than Clinton does, although Clinton has been closing that gap lately. RCP now lists Obama's average margin against McCain at +.6% while Clinton is close at -1.6%. According to the AP analysis of the poll, Obama has lost ground among most constituencies, many of whom are likely to come home to him in the end such as voters under 35, independents and high income households. There's one demographic where Obama has lost ground to McCain that could be more of a longterm concern:

Against McCain, Obama lost ground among women -- from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April. Obama dropped 12 points among women under 45, 14 points among suburban women and 15 points among married women.

I was speaking to a very smart woman last night about the bitterness many women are likely to feel toward Barack Obama if he wins the nomination over Hillary Clinton. Her prescription in that event, which I think also amounted to a prediction, was for Obama to pick a female VP candidate, although she thinks the VP choice would be much more likely to be a governor than the senator from New York herself. While I personally haven't given up on the whole dream ticket thing, I do think she might be onto something.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, ap poll, Barack Obama, General, Hillary Clinton, John McCain (all tags)

Comments

96 Comments

Re: AP Poll

I've often wondered what VP choice would make people who can't stand Obama think twice.

But this AP poll seems pretty bad. It was only taken from a sample of about 750 registered voters (not even LIKELY voters). But since it's AP, it gets instant nationwide press. Gotta love it.

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 02:39PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama

The woman VP thing has been talked about..  I think it opens up another can of worms though..  I think a lot of Clinton supporters will feel shafted if he picks another woman over Hillary.  It's a risky proposition if you ask me.  A move like that could easily drive more Clinton supporters away than to bring them back in.

I think once a lot of those woman see how crappy McCain would be as president they'll come back and vote for him.  There will be stories about how he's mistreated the women in his life... Trust me, they'll come out.

by jturn17 2008-04-10 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama

I would say a woman other than Hillary could be seen for what it may be, an attempt to woo back female support.  I am not sure that's Obama's best move.  If not Clinton, he should avoid picking a female.  Likewise, if Clinton steals the nomination, she would be wise not to pick someone like Harold Ford Jr.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-10 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama

I understand what you are saying, but it leaves me asking why people act like Hillary is the only qualified woman in the US for president.

by mikeinsf 2008-04-10 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

No one is comparing McCain to Clinton anymore.

All comparison are between him and Barack Obama and no one should discount the ignorant angry white jingoistic chicken hawk vote.

But Barack Obama is a nimble campaigner and can easy adjust and perform political judo to take it to the house in November!

by Andre X 2008-04-10 02:41PM | 0 recs
Oddly Enough

I'm not at all surprised by this.  A lot has happened since Feb., namely the Rev. Wright situation.  I'm interested to see how these numbers change once the Dems have a nominee.

by venavena 2008-04-10 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Oddly Enough

i agree with you. the dems haven't even begun to campaign seriously against mccain. it's a shame they're having to use up so much money and energy ripping each other to shreds. seems like it would be better spent against mccain.

also, i took stroll through some red sites today. atlas shrugs has obama linked to the farc terrorists in colombia. world net daily has a series of articles by a mr klein proving that obama is a drug taking homo terrorist. maybe that's why obama's numbers are slipping against mccain.

by hueydixiepearl 2008-04-10 04:52PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I don't think Obama has to pick a woman just to pacify the female voters, I don't think they would hold that deep of a grudge.

but I am not a woman so I have no clue, and the women I know either support Obama or do support hillary but will easily switch to Obama if he wins.

other then the internet I have never met a woman who says its Hillary or I vote John McCain.

thats not true I know a few, but they are republican leaners anyway who were only voting for a woman, not hillary, thus if there is no woman president they return to their republican leanings.

but I think after we have a nominee and after a few weeks of cooling off, the democratic base will unify.

Hell if McCain can unify the conservative base around him, then a the democratic base can unify.

by TruthMatters 2008-04-10 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I think you and many of the posters on this thread seriously, as in Seriously, underestimate where a lot of Hillary's support will go if she is not the nominee. It will not go to Obama. He has waged a dirty campaign. And Hillary supporters will not forgive him. No one I know will ever get over  him labeling the clintons as racists. And things went downhill from there. Obama could choose a woman or he choose God as his running mate and women will stay home in droves. He is widely seen as a truly aweful candidate who will be an even worse president. I know it is hard to hear how the other side sees your hero--which is how I often feel--but we will lose the election if Obama is the nominee and there is this kind of denial about how bad things are between the two camps. Women will simply refuse to vote or they will vote McCain.

by linfar 2008-04-10 04:54PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

You have the right as an American to vote for coat hanger abortions.  No one has ever said you can't support that position, and no one can stop you from doing it.

by kasjogren 2008-04-10 08:17PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I'm not a Republican at all.  I support Hillary Clinton and I'm a progressive down to my boots.  I want her to be my next president because I care about details and analysis.  I also want my president to be the sort of person who follows through and that's Hillary.  As a woman (and a black, 44-year old, college-educated one), I'd be thrilled to see THIS woman in the White House.  Yes, I am tired of the boys club, and just like John Lennon said, "woman is the nigger of the world-she is the slave of the slave."  I apologize if that sounds inflammatory, but it amazes me that some people, especially women, don't get that, because I see it all the time.

Quite frankly, although I will vote for Barack Obama if he's the nominee, I do find him arrogant and dismissive, and I wish he would stop presenting himself as a change agent.  When I look at his background, it seems pretty mainstream and straighforward.  What he does have, in more opinion, is the gift of being able to sway others with great oratory.  

by TinaH1963 2008-04-10 05:22PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O
I agree and I think most women are far too mature to vote for McCain if Senator Clinton isn't nominated. Quite frankly I don't believe McCain has a chance of winning. The polls at this time will change dramatically after the first debate.
McCain is about continuing the war. Nothing else.
by Politicalslave 2008-04-10 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I play soccer 3 times a week. I am usually a sweeper.  Guess what, 2 on 1 I usually get beat.  1 on 1 I stop the attacker 90% of the time.

If Obama really is statistically tied after months of a 2 on 1 matchup then he is a better defender than me after 25 years of practice.

by kasjogren 2008-04-10 08:20PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I disagree about the long-term nature of women's hesitancy re: Obama. No constituency would be more disappointed that Clinton wasn't the nominee than white women - particularly older white women. But most of these women are feminists in the truest sense and would NEVER vote for an anti-abortion Republican in a general election. Sorry, but no remotely savvy feminist will overlook the judge issue. And McCain has made it quite clear on many occasions that he wants Roe v. Wade overturned.

I do think it will require work for Obama to get white women (particularly older ones) excited about him because of the sense that he "took" the nomination from Hillary Clinton. A female VP is one option, but it isn't the only one. A promise of Hillary on the Supreme Court might help as well.

by elrod 2008-04-10 02:53PM | 0 recs
Completely agree...

The Supreme Court is one vote away from overturning Roe v. Wade, and the next president will almost certainly be appointing another justice. The fact remains, no matter how heated the debate gets, Obama and Clinton, while possessing different strengths and weaknesses, are very similar in their policies, especially when contrasted to John McCain.

On a separate note, these polls are meaningless. Once the general election begins, the dynamic will change, the narrative will change, the contrasts will become apparent. Even more to the point, I think it's time to give up the electability argument. If Obama beats Clinton for the nomination, then he can win the general. If Clinton beats Obama, then she can win general. Each is going to be each other's biggest obstacle. Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton are two of the best candidates this country has seen in a long time, and once the primary is over, there will be a battle tested Democrat running against a senator calling for more of the same when 81% of the country thinks we are on the wrong track.

In my opinion, McCain's meaningless poll gains are great for Democrats, because if he becomes the front runner, the less willing he will become to grovel at the feet of the far right, the right will have less urgency to fundraise, the media will become more critical (ok, that's just for OTHER frontrunners). Expectations will be raised, and when Obama or Clinton (both outstanding candidates) starts catching up, suddenly the narrative turns to McCain's fall. He's peaking too soon, and this early success could cause problems later (See Marc Ambinder)

We need to focus on destroying the myth of Maverick McCain, make a big push in voter registration, and work our asses off supporting down ticket candidates so we can provide either Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton with an overwhelming progressivc governing coalition.

by Benstrader 2008-04-10 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Completely agree...

Unfortunately, there is nothing reassuring about Obama in relation to the court. He may want to show his big tent, repugs are wonderful strategy and appoint a midle of the road judge. There is no guarantee what the hell this guy will do.

by linfar 2008-04-10 04:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Completely agree...

I think your speculation is waaaaay off in this matter.  He'd absolutely pick a progressive judge.

by mikeinsf 2008-04-10 06:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Completely agree...

You are right linfar, you should vote for the sure fire coat hanger candidate.

by kasjogren 2008-04-10 08:21PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Older voters are usually a tough nut to crack for non-incumbent democrats.

As far as the resentment vote, the people who are the most galled at the idea of Obama winning the nomination are by and large part of the activist sector of the Democratic party.  I can't see them sitting out any election, let alone one as critical.

Also, keep in mind that there will be no candidate to rally them, no means of organizing them, and nothing to keep them energized to sit the election out; they'll need it, because their natural inclination is to be politically involved.

by Mostly 2008-04-10 11:13PM | 0 recs
Obama fares better vs. McCain than Clinton.

You can take one poll (as you do) or you can take the average of all current polls, as they do at RealClearPolitics:

Obama 45.2%
McCain 44.6%

Clinton 44.8%
McCain 46.4%

Perhaps tougher for Clinton are her high negatives, significantly higher than either McCain or Obama. From today's Rasmussen poll:

Favorable/Unfavorable
McCain 52/45
Obama 52/45
Clinton 45/53

The last time Clinton's unfavorables were under 50% (at 49%) was March 12.

And opinions of Clinton among women have declined.

by Bob Johnson 2008-04-10 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

If Obama wins the nomination and he decides to pick a woman and it is not Hillary Clinton , that could be the last straw for a lot of women including me.

If he decides to pick a woman as vp , he should offer it to Hillary Clinton and if she rejects it then he can pick anyone he chooses in my opinion.

In my opinion he shouldn't pick another woman.

by lori 2008-04-10 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

are you seriously saying its either Hillary or NO OTHER WOMAN?

I mean come on are you seriously saying there is NO OTHER woman who would be deserving of a VP slot as Hillary? no one else could also be effective?

by TruthMatters 2008-04-10 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Its like Hillary Clinton winning the nomination then skipping Obama then picking Harold Ford jr.

How do you think some african Americans or some of his supporters would feel ?

I like Harold Ford infact he represented my homestate well .

That is however how it would be taken by some women.

by lori 2008-04-10 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

no its like Hillary winning and me saying, pick obama or don't you dare think about choosing a black guy.

you really think that its about him being black? if Hillary ofcourse I want her to choose Obama, but thats a long way to say, if she doesn't choose Obama, don't even think about choosing any other black guys.

thats just crazy.

I just don't know how to respond. yes you can say you want it to be hillary, but to say he would lose your vote if its any other woman, to say that if he wins he choose Hillary or he better make sure its not a woman or he loses your vote?

by TruthMatters 2008-04-10 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

You don't seem to understand what I am saying , look at my comments below .

It is the mindset of identity politics , that would make some believe that by putting another woman on the ticket would make her supporters vote for Obama.

I am making the opposite case , that choice would backfire because it would be patronizing to me because it sends out a message that Hillary clinton represents nothing more than Identity politics to women who are voting for her.

by lori 2008-04-10 03:16PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

you are already making it about Identity politics, you are saying that there couldn't possibly be any other reason for a woman VP, then because she is a woman.

and you ignore all the women who already say they want a woman president, but Hillary is not the woman they want.

a democrat has a great chance of winning this year, and thus who he chooses as VP has a great chance to win and what better way to set up a presidential bid they being a VP?

I am pretty sure all the women out there who don't want hillary (which is usually what about 40%) would love for him to choose any other woman other then Hillary

by TruthMatters 2008-04-10 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Maybe I wasn't clear enough.

If Obama thinks that by picking another woman that would draw Hillary Clinton' supporters to his side i.e. those that are women , in my opinion that would be a move that would backfire.

What that would signal to me is that the only reason I am supporting Hillary Clinton is because she is a woman.

There is a lot more to my support of Hillary Clinton than the fact that she is a woman.

Hence putting Kathleen Sebelouis on the ticket would not make me anymore likely to support him if I am so inclined eventually , infact it would make me less likely to support him because it would be very insulting and patronizing to me.

This whole diary suggests that identity politics is the root of the support for Hillary Clinton among women.

That is what I am responding to and that is wrong.

Look the best way for Obama to have a better chance of getting her supporters is for him to publicly offer the VP position to her and I expect her to reject it , then he can pick whoever he wants (Man or Woman ).

however to just skip right over her and put another woman on the ticket thinking that automatically he would get her female supporters would backfire with me.

That is a mindset that makes her supporters out to be interested only in identity politics and not the policies and qualifications among other things she has.

I hope I am clear enough.

by lori 2008-04-10 03:43PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Sounds like it is either Sen Clinton or coat hangers for you?

by kasjogren 2008-04-10 08:24PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Lori you're plenty clear, I know exactly what you're saying.

If Obama's VP is seen as a clumsy attempt to mollify Clinton voters, it would be worse than if he were to not try at all.  Like if Clinton were to pick Harold Ford jr - you could almost see the thought bubble over her head "that'll fool 'em!"

On the other hand, there's nothing clumsy or awkward about an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket (actually there is, but I think Obama supporters see it more than Clinton voters do).

by Mostly 2008-04-10 11:17PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Lori, you were clear enough:-). I think Obama should ask Hillary as a courtesy, if he becomes the nominee. That will go a long way in placating the hurt feelings of my mom. Of course, Hillary can say no as part of a plan, making it easier to unite the party.

by Sandeep 2008-04-10 11:58PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I apologize if it looked like I was attacking I know its your opinion, I was just literally shocked to see a woman actually say Hillary or no other woman should be considered for the VP spot.

I was shocked when people suggested that Pelosi was only against Hillary because she didn't want another woman to be higher then her, and to me this was the reverse, it was basically, Only Hillary deserves the chance to be come the first Female President. it just threw me back for a second.

by TruthMatters 2008-04-10 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I understand what Lori is saying; if Obama were to pick a woman besides Hillary Clinton it would, in one fell swoop, send out the message that a) He thinks Clinton supporters only prefered her based on identity politics and b) He think's they're stupid and would choose any woman.

It wasn't an ultimatum.

by Mostly 2008-04-10 11:21PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

As a woman who supports Barack Obama, I feel the opposite. I'd be very pleased if he chose a woman OTHER than Clinton. But I don't think this will happen. He's gotta get the "commander in chief" single issue voters. So he'll pick an old white guy.

by beve83 2008-04-10 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Biden maybe?

by fogiv 2008-04-10 03:34PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I was thinking Dodd the other day...

by JenKinFLA 2008-04-10 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I would be very happy with Dodd! Every bit as much gravitas, charm and more experience as McCain. Without the reputation for temper.

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 03:49PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

it wouldn't surprise me in the least...  is there a downside?  I cannot think of one with him...

by JenKinFLA 2008-04-10 03:54PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Let me amend that to say that I would actually prefer Dodd as Majority Leader if I had my choice...   that is the only downside...

by JenKinFLA 2008-04-10 03:57PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I think the downside to Dodd or Biden is that they are Washington veterans, and step on Obama's change Washington message.

While I can't believe I'm saying it, I think Biden would be a great vice presidential candidate. I think he broke out when he started going after Rudy Giuliani in the primaries, and IMO, played a big part in turning the narrative on Giuliani. Republicans are going to attack Obama for being naive/inexperienced, and Biden can turn the tables around on them. Yes, there are downsides, but I was really impressed with Biden's aggressive posture on Giuliani in his campaign.

by Benstrader 2008-04-10 04:24PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I was too.

by fogiv 2008-04-10 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Setting aside I dislike Ford's politics, I'd be totally fine if she picked him. If the candidate is qualified and happens to be African American, great. No need to get so caught up in either candidate's celebrity, for Chrissake.

by mikeinsf 2008-04-10 06:56PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I would totally be happy with Clinton as VP, but do you really think she would accept it?

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Huckabee said it best

"the vice presidency is a job no one wants, but no one turns down"

if he offered she would say yes, no one says no. well nevermind, Hillary actually believes that Barack can't beat McCain so she might not want to be on that ticket because when he loses she can run in 2012.

so anyone else i would say yes, but Hillary, she honestly believes she is the democrats only chance at the white house this year.

by TruthMatters 2008-04-10 03:11PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

No , I don't think she should accept it.

But Obama has to offer it to her , it is her prerogative to accept it or not.

However if he skips right over her and then puts another woman on the ticket that would be very irresponsible of him.

In my case I am not supporting Hillary Clinton because she is a woman , that is a plus but she represents something more than that.

Just by substituting her on a ticket with another woman with the hope that would appeal to her supporters is very demeaning and patronizing.

I believe he is better off choosing a Jim Webb instead of another woman.

by lori 2008-04-10 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

"But Obama has to offer it to her"

Why, because she's a Clinton?  Or because she will sick the Clinton machine on him if he doesn't?  He doesn't owe her anything.  

by reggie44pride 2008-04-10 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Because she has earned it.  Same goes for him if she pulls it out in the end.  They have both more than earned the right of first refusal for the job...

by jarhead5536 2008-04-10 03:41PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

She's ran a terrible campaign of entitlement and incompetancy, laced with kneecaping techniques and underhanded tricks.  I don't think much better of Obama.

In some ways, they deserve each other!  One is smug and arrogant, the other is cold and calculating.  Politicians, in other words!

by reggie44pride 2008-04-10 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Because fifty percent of the voters in this primary (and more than 50% 0f the party regulars) wanted to see her at the top of the ticket. Because in a head to head with McCain in national polls she does as well as Obama. Sounds like a very strong reason to nominate her for VP.

Forget the gender issue for a moment -- only Gore and Edwards would enjoy the same sort of support for the top spot.  So going to another female candidate, without approaching Clinton first, will seem like pandering and sour grapes.  But most importantly, it would brush aside her popularity with the voters.  Even among Obama voters, the majority have no problem with Clinton.  Passing her over would be big mistake one.  Suggesting then a far less qualified female would be huge mistake two.

by grassrootsorganizer 2008-04-11 03:07AM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

That's what I've been wondering. There is a very strong gender connection some have formed, but I don't think that only a woman would be acceptable to a Clinton voter, particularly since any that I can think of wouldn't have the profile or experience to make for a winning candidate. We can't go with an unknown.

Webb is an interesting choice, because I think he would be a terrific choice as well. Who else do you think would complement Obama and demonstrate good judgment?

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 03:34PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Biden makes for a pretty good attack dog, and he's got foriegn policy cred.

by fogiv 2008-04-10 03:35PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

If only he could carry a state.  He's from Delaware, hardly a battleground.

I'm still in love with the idea of Obama/Webb, even though everyone keeps telling me that he's not a good campaigner.

For Clinton, I don't particularly care who she chooses; her model of the presidency seems to give the VP little to do.  That being said, of all the people who questioned Gen. Petraeus yesterday, I though Evan Bayh was the best.  "So, basically you're saying you won't know it until we get there, and you don't know when we'll get there?  Thank you sir."

by Mostly 2008-04-10 11:27PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I would hope he doesn't offer the VP spot to anyone who called him unfit to be CiC, regardless of gender.

by Aris Katsaris 2008-04-10 03:39PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

It could work well for him, though. Who better to demonstrate his ability to build bridges and get things done than an old adversary? It would help him on the issue of his past, too, becasue it would show that he doesn't harbor anger.

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 03:42PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Agreed re: Webb. I don't know how much he'll help in our neck of the woods, even though Webb is a pure hellfire Scots-Irish Southwest Virginian. But Webb reinforces Obama's change/outsider appeal while adding unmistakable strength on national security.  I think Webb is Obama's best choice.

by elrod 2008-04-10 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Ever since I first heard the idea, I haven't been able to get it out of my head.  He's perfect.

AND he's a reformed Reaganite!  Great politics and right out of central casting.

by Mostly 2008-04-10 11:28PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Well, there's a good chance it will Sebelius, so be prepared.  It might be Hillary or Webb or someone else, but Sebelius is definitely on his shortlist (and I think she'd be great, BTW).

by mikeinsf 2008-04-10 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama

But haven't people around here been saying exactly the opposite - that it would be demeaning to Clinton if Obama asked her to be his VP?  I'm just curious about that.

by rfahey22 2008-04-10 03:59PM | 0 recs
Who would be a better VP?

I was reading Marc Ambinder, and one of the comments that the defections among women was due to identity politics, and many of them would come home.  But he's got a problem with white working women.

So, as I see it, here are the possibilities:

Governors:

Kathleen Sabelius--won't help carry Kansas, uninspiring (SOTU response is watched by few), but could bring moderates back to Obama.
Jeanette Napolitano--won't help in Arizona that much, and her sighing on to get-tough measures against illegal immigration could hurt among Latinos.  But she could also bring back wavering women.
Jennifer Granholm--would be my pick, but she's ineligible.

Senators:

Patty Murray--Could be a solid choice, but if Rossi wins governor's race, we'd lose a Senate seat.  A definite roll of the dice.
Claire McCaskill--she has a populist streak, but she defended Rev. Wright once too many.  She could help in Missouri and Ohio.  And if Jay Nixon loses, another Senate seat lost.

by mikelow1885 2008-04-10 03:03PM | 0 recs
Granholm??

You just have to be shitting us.  Forget Michigan in that case.  (-:

Besides, she was born in Canada.  

by grassrootsorganizer 2008-04-11 03:10AM | 0 recs
Another Day Another Meaningless Two on One Poll
Jesus it was meaningless yesterday, the day before that, the day before that. And it'll still be meaningless tomorrow and every day until someone takes the nomination.
by bernardpliers 2008-04-10 03:17PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Which female VP?
Kathleen Sebelius? That woman is a real life Ambien.
Janet Napolitano? Same thing as above.
Claire McCaskill? That would be just sad.

He would be just as well ask Paris Hilton because she matches his intelligence and do nothing personality.

No other woman besides Hillary Clinton has such a large following or support. There is no way that Clinton wants to be VP and watch as he screws up.

by bsavage 2008-04-10 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Petty.

by fogiv 2008-04-10 03:37PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Your response is basically vapid and worthless so it doesn't surprise me that you bring up Paris Hilton. How jealous or obsessed must you be to question the mans intelligence?

Just in case you forgot, he went to Harvard Law- which beats the heck out of whatever community college you attended.

by JDF 2008-04-10 03:43PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I know where he went, however he isnt qualified to be POTUS.

by bsavage 2008-04-10 03:55PM | 0 recs
I'm pretty sure only Hillary is.

Right?

by Bob Johnson 2008-04-10 04:10PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Except that isn't what you said. You compared the mans intelligence to that of Paris Hilton. I will leave aside for a moment the question of her intelligence and simply point out that anyone who would say what you said is jealous or angry and certainly not objective in anyway.

by JDF 2008-04-10 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

well we have a winner for non-sequitur award...  the ability to bring up 4 Democratic women and Paris Hilton in the same sentence...  not that it was a contest or anything anyone should advocate.

But, by your measure, since Clinton won't accept, I guess he is best off not offering it.  No one wants to be the 2nd choice.

by JenKinFLA 2008-04-10 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

A VP doesn't really have to be exciting.  I fact, it might serve Obama to have a VP who seems a little boring and safe.

by mikeinsf 2008-04-10 07:00PM | 0 recs
What if McCain chooses a Woman?

McCain sure won't want to show his hand before Dem race decided.

If you're in the Obama camp, you gotta be wondering--the Dems broke ground and softened the electorate up--so now a GOP woman might be palatable--for eg maybe the one from Texas

Now my question is--If Obama materially suspected that McCain was going to choose a woman, might that nudge him more to choose Hillary?

by ionsys 2008-04-10 03:53PM | 0 recs
Re: What if McCain chooses a Woman?

Yeah, I could see McCain try to shake things up by choosing someone like Rice, or the governor of Alaska (I forget her name).  

by rfahey22 2008-04-10 04:02PM | 0 recs
Re: What if McCain chooses a Woman?

Rice would be a disaster for McCain, because the wingnuts that hate McCain aren't terribly fond of her either, and it's apparently a fairly substantial rumor that she is a lesbian. I first heard this from a die-hard NeoCon Republican, too, so it's not exactly a trashy bit of slander. Even if not, what are the folks who oppose Obama solely because of his race going to think when their other choice is a black woman? It's a very, very risky maneuver.

McCain will need all the support from the GOP spin machine he can, but he will not win without Republican help, particularly since we've seen that they are not above making a vote just to prove a point.

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 04:12PM | 0 recs
Other Polls, Too

Also, Todd, what do you make of the Rasmussen state polls out (today?)

They show that McCain is ahead of BOTH in Ohio.

Obama wins, Clinton loses in New Mexico. Ditto Wisconsin.

Clinton is behind McCain by nearly 20 points in Montana, 25 in Alaska. But Obama is within less than 10.

It also confirmed the worrisome statistic that Obama could lose NY to McCain, even though it's really close either way.

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 04:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Other Polls, Too

So I can see arguments to be made on both sides. Obama shows an ability to make McCain fight in areas he could otherwise ignore.

But Obama is actually at a disadvantage in NY, which could be disastrous. Both seem as if they currently have to fight to keep the state this time around, but Clinton is at a marked advantage, having represented it for eight years.

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Other Polls, Too

Obama clearly has the edge here.  Just look at Alaska.  Obama is only five points behind McCain there while Clinton trails by 25, which could kill our chances at picking up the House and Senate seat there, which we desperately need to boost our majorities.  

by Toddwell 2008-04-10 04:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Other Polls, Too

Exactly what they'd do to Clinton. Have you seen what they've already started saying about Clinton and Iran?

They will attack viciously either way, and if you think they're scared of Clinton, you're nuts. Clinton is starting at a huge disadvantage because she is and has always been unlikable by most people.

by vcalzone 2008-04-11 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: AP

I think what a lot of people are missing is that women have a problem with Obama. Putting Hillary or any other woman on the ticket will not help especially since they're all likely to be more qualified to be president than Obama. The whole Wright incident creeps a lot of women out and Michelle really isn't much of a help with women either. I wouldn't guarantee that women will "come home" to Obama because they didn't vote for Kerry in large enough numbers to help him win.

by Ga6thDem 2008-04-10 04:18PM | 0 recs
Re: AP

So what would ease your mind? Is Obama just completely unacceptable to you? Is there anything he could do as the nominee that would win your respect?

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 04:22PM | 0 recs
Re: AP

Actually there probably isn't anything that he could do to earn respect from women. He's burned so many bridges with them, even to the point of trashing his own grandmother and holding up his radical preacher that it's unlikely he'll get many women to vote for him.

by Ga6thDem 2008-04-11 02:25AM | 0 recs
Re: AP

Thank you spokesperson for WOMEN EVERYWHERE.  I'm glad they have a Voice in you.

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-10 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: AP

Maybe you don't like Obama, but I don't think women overall find him abhorrent. He has plenty of support.  Sure, Hillary's getting more of the women's vote, but that says more about Hillary's appeal than Obama somehow being creepy.

by mikeinsf 2008-04-10 07:05PM | 0 recs
Re: AP

The Wright incident creeped a lot of people out. Look no further than the most recent polls.

by Ga6thDem 2008-04-11 02:26AM | 0 recs
Re: AP

I am so sick of people trying to make women feel guilty for not supporting Hillary, because she's a woman!!  I am supporting Obama and I am a woman.  Not all women support Hillary!!  And please don't talk about the entitlement of the Clinton's because they have been in politics for 30 years!  I get the guilt trip from my mother-in-law because this may be the only chance she gets to see a woman in the Presidency.  To that, I say no.  There will be other women.  Just not this woman.  And I am a strong, graduate school educated, feminist woman - not supporting Hillary.  And I will not feel guilty about it.

by monkey 2008-04-10 08:14PM | 0 recs
Re: AP

It's not about Hillary, it's about Obama. I don't know why you guys can't get that basic fact in your heads.

by Ga6thDem 2008-04-11 02:27AM | 0 recs
VP Choice

Actually a governor could bring executive experience and pragmatism to the table. And Gov Napolitano won almost 2-1 in the 2006 Election, so there is a good chance she could bring along 10 Electoral votes from the GOP (a strategy that Kerry should have used in the last election).  She also was named by TIME as one of the five best governors in the US.  So this would seem to be a great choice

What a contrast against the usual "old white men" (especially this cycle)

Obama/Napolitano '08 has a nice ring to it

by xenontab 2008-04-10 04:57PM | 0 recs
Re: VP Choice

Those 10EVs won't be from Arizona.

by mikelow1885 2008-04-10 05:10PM | 0 recs
Re: VP Choice

My bad, forgot the "favorite son"  Still does not rule her out, she does have standing and can attract the moderates of both sides.  There is also Richardson and Sebelius, getting elected twice with an increase in the margin bodes well for putting Kansas in play.  Obama will be aggressive in attacking the so called safe GOP states.

should be fun

by xenontab 2008-04-10 06:50PM | 0 recs
re

Obama will pick Sebelius from Kansas. White women are who is going to need plus she has ties to Ohio thru her father.

by rossinatl 2008-04-10 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Obama's VP will be one of the following 5... Mark it down right now... (In no particular order)

1) Bill Richardson

  1. Sherrod Brown
  2. Kathy Sebelius
  3. Janet Nepolitano
  4. Hillary Clinton

I'd say Nepolitano will NOT be the pick, because of doubts she can carry Arizona against McCain even if she is more popular there than him... but you never know.

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-10 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Regardless of whom Obama picks as his VP I will not be voting for him if he is the nominee. I will not feel guilty for the Supreme Court or anything else for that matter.

The DNC will figure it out for the next election on how not to shoot themselves in the foot by prima-caucus and all the permutations that is set up, including how not to count FL and MI. And no I don't think Obama is responsible for the mess, but yes he did play FL and MI like an old style politician.

When the primary season started I would have voted for whoever the nominee was, but after hours of insults and condescending chatter for HRC to quit the race, if and when she quits, I quit.

by LadyEagle 2008-04-10 06:57PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Well, Nader's running. Good luck to you.

by mikeinsf 2008-04-10 07:06PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

Exactly!!

by monkey 2008-04-10 08:09PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama

So why are you even here?

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-04-10 08:17PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama

Because she is a human with an opinion of her own and wants to share with like-minded people.

by Sandeep 2008-04-11 12:19AM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama

Like minded?  Is this JohnMcBush.com?  Or is this a Democratic site?

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-04-12 03:55PM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

I understand your sentiments as a fellow Hillary supporter. But we need to remember one thing: Hillary can quit from the Presidential nominee race but she will never quit from the Democratic party, she will never quit from her progressive ideals.

There are some ungrateful, ungracious, hateful people who will never understand this. But we need to rise above them and show what Hillary is really about.

by Sandeep 2008-04-11 12:14AM | 0 recs
Re: AP Poll: McCain's Gaining More On Obama Than O

People really need to FOCUS here.  We do not have any such thing as a "national" election in the United States of America.  Thanks to our Founding Fathers, what we have are 50 simultaneous winner take all STATE elections.

If you look at the interactive maps on this site and set all of the states blue that Gore won in 2000, and then add in Colorado and EITHER New Mexico OR Nevada, the Democrat wins more electoral votes than McCain.

The only state that switched in 2004 was Iowa, which went narrowly for Gore in 2000 an equally narrowly for Kerry in 2004. Obama would presumably pick that back up as he is from neighboring Illinois.  If he has Richardson on the ballot as VP, he will have a leg up in the West, which is why I suspect that Richardson ditched Superbowl Bubba and Hillary despite his long time friendship.  

This is WITHOUT winning EITHER Ohio or FLORIDA!  

Let's stop talking about national polls.  The only polls that count are in certain states.  Primary victories also have very little, if any, predictive value on GE outcomes.  

by MikeWalk 2008-04-11 05:34AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------