Who Got It Right?

by Todd Beeton, Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:01:55 AM EST

Once again, mad respect to Survey USA for getting Ohio just right at 54-44 in its final poll.

And as for Texas, give it up for ARG, which actually got it close this time, predicting a 50-47 Clinton win.

And in the unscientific method department, I'd say Jerome deserves some props for his predictions that Clinton would win Ohio by 12% and Texas by 2%. The kid's got skillz.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, ohio primary, polls, predictions, Texas primary (all tags)

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21 Comments

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Re: Who Got It Right?

Not to mention Todd, you rock.  We're soooo gonna win this election.. YOU GO HILLARY!

by KyleSIU 2008-03-05 12:56AM | 0 recs
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Still Firmly In The Lead

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail /2008/03/05/obama_still_firmly_in_the_le ad_1.html

Obama Still Firmly in the Lead, Strategist Says

nice video of Obama

by dearreader 2008-03-05 01:36AM | 0 recs
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Re: Still Firmly In The Lead
"Alternative" Delegate Votes
(no sanctions)
Need to Nominate    2,208.0
H Clinton    1,589.5
B Obama    1,520.5
by Zeitgeist9000 2008-03-05 01:49AM | 0 recs
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Re: Still Firmly In The Lead

Wow, Hill's winning in Bizarro World, you cling to that Zeitgeist, us Obama backers will somehow have to live with a 100-150 delegate lead on Planet Earth.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-05 05:56AM | 0 recs
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Re: Still Firmly In The Lead

Oh so Obama has enough delegates to win? Oh that's right. He doesn't. His only hope is that HRC drops out and that FL and MI aren't counted. SO far she's won EVERY swing state. But he's got Idaho!

by atomic garden 2008-03-05 02:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: Still Firmly In The Lead

It should be obvious, though apparently it's not: you can't simply graft the results of the Democratic primary onto the general election.  If you wanted to get an idea of which states are winnable for either candidate, you should look to the head-to-head matchup polls with McCain.

Also, if the superdelegates are going to vote however they want, what makes you think that they would vote in a bloc, especially in favor of a candidate who is losing in pledged delegates?

by rfahey22 2008-03-05 02:24AM | 0 recs
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Don't forget Wyoming.

He will probably win that caucus too. And I'm just sure they both of those leopards would change their spots and go for him in November.

by georgiapeach 2008-03-05 03:49AM | 0 recs
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Re: Still Firmly In The Lead

This is simply untrue, Obama won Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Missouri and Virgina, Hillary won Ohio, New Jersey and New Mexico, she's leading in PA, she also won the Florida straw poll.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-05 05:57AM | 0 recs
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The Big Lesson of the Night

Obama, with his vastly greater spending and his countless hours on the ground in Texas and Ohio, couldn't close the deal.  This was his third chance to bring it home, and he can't do it.  Draw your own lessons.

by Beltway Dem 2008-03-05 01:43AM | 0 recs
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Re: The Big Lesson of the Night

Three weeks ago, he was down by double digits in both states.   In Ohio, he almost brought it into single digits.  In Texas he got it down very close, and will win the delegate count there.

Winning TX and OH was never expected by the Obama campaign.   Remember this?  http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 208/Obamas_projections.html
Marvel at the accuracy, and look at the next states to come.

I hope this thing ends before Pennsylvania.  I don't want another 7 weeks of Democrats fighting each other while Republicans regroup.

by Setrak 2008-03-05 01:47AM | 0 recs
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Losing is losing.

Period.

by Beltway Dem 2008-03-05 04:09AM | 0 recs
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Re: Losing is losing.

I agree, and Hill's lost 12 of the last 15 contest, will almost certainly lose the next 2, and only has at best 4 contest remaining that favor her, with 1 tossup (PR) and the remainder in the Obama camp.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-05 06:03AM | 0 recs
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Re: The Big Lesson of the Night

Clinton "hasn't closed the deal" despite being a virtual lock for months, and yet that is the conclusion you've drawn?  Actually, the math looks quite good for Obama; I'd say he's closed the deal barring a random and unlikely movement of superdelegates at the convention.

by rfahey22 2008-03-05 02:26AM | 0 recs
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Re: The Big Lesson of the Night

Hillary started out with 100% name recognition and a 100 Million dollars+, and yet despite her massive advantages she trails a relative new comer by more than 100 delegates.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-05 05:58AM | 0 recs
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Congratulations Jerome

At least you didn't predict Obama to win Texas by 12 like your orangy blogger friend did.

You may end up being right about who ultimately gets the nomination also.  Clinton!

by diplomatic 2008-03-05 01:58AM | 0 recs
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Re: Congratulations Jerome

At this point I'd say Kos and Jerome are about even-- Jerome rocked tonight, Kos dominated every night before now (seriously, it will take a lot to start to give unalloyed credence to Jerome after the 2/5 prediction that the race would be over that night).

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-05 06:00AM | 0 recs
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Well Markos was also wrong on Super Tuesday

so to say Kos has been right "every night" before now is not true.  He went the Zogby route and predicted a big win for Obama in California, for example.

by diplomatic 2008-03-05 07:04PM | 0 recs
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Who Else Got It Right

That leaked Obama campaign memo from a few months back had Ohio going 56-43 to Clinton and Texas going     51-47 to her as well.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-03-05 03:41AM | 0 recs
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Re: Who Else Got It Right

That spreadsheet was scary accurate as to last night.

by Tantris 2008-03-05 05:48AM | 0 recs
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Re: Who Else Got It Right

Its been right or overly generous to Clinton every single night since it was released, if we go by its predictions the rest of the way Hill loses by about 100 elected delegates.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-05 06:01AM | 0 recs
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Re: Who Got It Right?

Thanks darlin

by IVR Polls 2008-03-05 04:06AM | 0 recs

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